Coronavirus deaths in India climb to 149; cases surge to 5,194

Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.

"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."

India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.

While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.

Okay Budget

“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.

The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.

On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.

The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.

Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.

Key highlights from the budget:

* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders

* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies

* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more

* Spending on education raised 5%

* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%

Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.

“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.

With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:

The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.

New Delhi, Mar 12: TMC MP Saugata Roy said Home Minister Amit Shah should resign for "failing" to control the riots in Delhi and demanded a judicial inquiry by a sitting Supreme Court judge.

Participating in a discussion on the violence in Delhi in Lok Sabha, Roy said the Delhi riots happened 72 years after Mahatma Gandhi was killed by a Hindu fanatic.

"Gandhiji has been murdered again in Delhi by, you know who," Roy said while addressing the Chair.

Taking on BJP MP Meenakshi Lekhi for defending BJP leaders for their controversial remarks, which he claimed instigated the violence, Roy said he has seldom heard such a communal speech ever.

Dubbing the BJP MP as "Devil's Advocate", Roy said, "She spent five minutes defending the most hated man. May I quote (William) Shakespeare and call her the Devil's Advocate?...She is the best Devil's Advocate possible. She has also been an advocate for the Delhi Police which has shown total inaction and ineptness in this whole riot in Delhi."

Thereafter Roy trained his gun at Shah, who was present in the house while the TMC MP was speaking.

He said that when the riots started on February 24, Home Minister Shah was sitting in the front row at Motera Stadium (in Gujarat) welcoming US President Donald Trump.

"When Mr. Shah should have been in Delhi Police control room, he was welcoming Mr. Trump at Motera. There was no order to the police. Then on 25th, things went out of control. Armed mobs fought with each other on the streets of Delhi," Roy said.

Demanding resignation of Shah, Roy raised questions on NSA Ajit Doval's visit to the riots-affected areas on February 26 and asked what was the Home Minister doing.

"Is it NSA's business to control ordinary law and order situation? Why was the Home Minister absent in action? There is no explanation for the same," he said.

The TMC leader said he feels bad standing face-to-face with Shah.

"He is still young, he has a good future. He should acknowledge responsibility for his failure to control or stop Delhi riots and bring peace in three days. In the name of God, go and do not stay in the Home Minister's position," Roy said, adding he is the man who could not prevent riots in Delhi, at a place 10 kilometres away from the Home Ministry.

Roy demanded a judicial inquiry into the riots by a sitting Supreme Court judge and complete rehabilitation for all the riot victims.