COVID-19 death toll rises to 114, number of cases climbs to 4,421: Health Ministry

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

New Delhi, Jun 26: With the highest single-day spike of 17,296 COVID-19 cases reported in the last 24 hours, India's COVID-19 count reached 4,90,401 on Friday, said the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW).

The country also saw 407 deaths in the last 24 hours, which pushed the death toll to 15,301.

The total number of cases includes 1,89,463 active cases, 2,85,637cured/discharged/migrated cases, as per the MoHFW.

According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), the total number of samples tested up to June 25 is 77,76,228; the number of samples tested on 25 June is 2,15,446.

Maharashtra remains the worst-affected state in the country with 1,47,741 cases. The active cases in the state are 63,357. The number of people cured or discharged stands at 77,453 while the death toll is at 6,931.

Delhi has so far reported 73,780 cases. The active cases in the national capital stood at 26,586. While the cured and discharged numbers stood at 44,765. The death toll in the city is 2,429.

Tamil Nadu has so far reported 70,977. With active cases at 30,067 and the number of cured or discharged at 39,999, while the death toll stood at 911.

New Delhi, May 24: New rules for domestic travel during the lockdown were released by the government today, including advising passengers to download the Aarogya Setu application on their mobile devices and asking states to ensure thermal screening at departure point of airports, railway stations and bus terminals. The guidelines were shared by Civil Aviation Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, who also shared new rules for international travel.

The minister had recently said that international flight operations may start by mid-June or end-July if the COVID-19 virus "behaves in a predictable manner".

"Prescribed clinical protocol will be followed in case any domestic or international traveller shows symptoms of COVID-19. States can also develop their own protocol for quarantine and isolation as per their own assessment," Mr Puri said.

The guidelines come a day before the resumption of air travel after nearly two-months hiatus following lockdown to prevent the spread of coronavirus.

The Indian Railways has also issued a list of 100 pairs of trains that it will operate from June 1, putting in operation popular trains such as Durontos, Sampark Krantis, Jan Shatabdis and Poorva Express.

Dos and Don'ts shall be provided along with tickets to travellers by agencies concerned, said the Health Ministry's guidelines for domestic travel (air/train/inter-state bus travel).

Latest guidelines on domestic & international travel have been issued by @MoHFW_INDIA.

I hope travellers strictly follow these self-regulatory norms & strengthen India's hands in this fight against COVID19. Remember, each one of us is a soldier against the pandemic.@MoCA_GoIpic.twitter.com/xVbTG1K44n

— Hardeep Singh Puri (@HardeepSPuri) May 24, 2020
Travellers shall give 14-day quarantine undertaking before boarding

The states and Union Territories shall ensure that all passengers undergo thermal screening at the point of departure and only asymptomatic passengers are allowed to board the flight, train or bus. Asymptomatic passengers, however, will be permitted to travel after they give an undertaking to self-monitor for 14 days, the ministry said.

Those having moderate or severe symptoms will be admitted to dedicated COVID health facilities and managed accordingly, the guidelines said.

Those having mild symptoms will be given the option of home isolation or isolated in the COVID Care Centre (both public and private facilities) as appropriate and tested as per ICMR protocol, they said.

"If positive, they will continue in COVID Care Centre and will be managed as per clinical protocol. If negative, the passenger may be allowed to go home, isolate himself/herself and self-monitor his/her health for further 7 days," the health ministry said.

In case, any symptoms develop they shall inform the district surveillance officer or the state or the national call centre (1075), it said.

Use of face covers, following respiratory hygine during travel

During boarding and travel, all passengers shall use face covers or masks and will also follow hand hygiene, respiratory hygiene and maintain environmental hygiene, the ministry said in its guidelines.

At airports, railway stations and bus terminals, required measures to ensure social distancing shall be taken, the guidelines said.

Airports, railway stations and bus terminals to be regularly sanitised

Airports, railway stations and bus terminals should be regularly sanitised or disinfected and the availability of soaps and sanitisers shall be ensured, the health ministry said.

The ministry said that states can also develop their own protocol with regards to quarantine and isolation as per their assessment.

Guidelines for International Travel

The guidelines for international travel include mandatory undertaking for quarrantine for 14 days. "Only for exceptional and compelling reasons such as cases of human distress, pregnancy, death in family, serious illness and parent(s) accompanied by children below 10 yrs, as assessed by the receiving states, home quarantine may be permitted for international travellers for 14 days," the Civil Aviation minister said.

Asymptomatic travelers will be allowed to board flight/ship

At the time of boarding the flight or ship, only asymptomatic travellers will be allowed to board after thermal screening, the health ministry said.. Passengers arriving through land borders will also have to undergo the same procedure, it said.

"Self-declaration form in duplicate shall be filled by the person in the flight/ship and a copy of the same will be given to Health and immigration officials present at the airport/seaport/landport. The form will be made available through the Aarogya Setu app," the new order said.

Passengers found to be symtomatic during screening shall be immediately isolated and taken to medical facility as per health protocol. "These passengers will be kept under institutional quarrantine for a minimum period of 7 days and should undergo necessary tests as per ICMR protocol," the guidelines said.

Sanitisation and disinfection must inside flights

Authorities must take adequate measures to such as environmental sanitation and disinfection at the airports as well as within the flights, the guideline said.Suitable announcement about COVID-19 including precautionary measures to be followed shall be made at airports/ports, it added.

While on board flight, ships, passengers and crew required precautions such as wearing of masks, environmental hygiene, respiratory hygiene, hand hygiene, the ministry said.

This morning, India registered the biggest-single day jump in the number of coronavirus cases as 6,767 new patients were reported in the last 24 hours. This is the third consecutive day that India has reported more than 6,000 COVID-19 cases with a record number of new patients each day. The county has officially logged 1,31,868 cases, 3,867 deaths linked to the highly infectious illness since the pandemic began. Of these, 147 patients died in the last 24 hours. The global number of novel coronavirus cases has passed 5.25 million with more than 339,000 deaths. Since the outbreak first emerged in China in December, 5,260,970 cases have been recorded across 196 countries and territories, with 339,758 deaths attributed to the virus.