COVID-19 spreads even before people show symptoms, study says

Agencies
March 15, 2020

Houston, Mar 15: Researchers, studying the novel coronavirus, have found that the time between cases in a chain of transmission is less than a week, and over 10 per cent of patients are infected by someone who has the virus, but does not show symptoms yet, a finding that may help public health officials contain the pandemic.

The study, published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, estimated what's called the serial interval of the coronavirus by measuring the time it takes for symptoms to appear in two people with the virus -- the person who infects another, and the infected second person.

According to the researchers, including those from the University of Texas at Austin, the average serial interval for the novel coronavirus in China was approximately four days.

They said the speed of an epidemic depends on two things -- how many people each case infects, and how long it takes cases to spread.

The first quantity, the scientists said, is called the reproduction number, and the second is the serial interval.

Due to the short serial interval of the disease caused by the coronavirus -- COVID-19 -- they said, emerging outbreaks will grow quickly, and could be difficult to stop.

“Ebola, with a serial interval of several weeks, is much easier to contain than influenza, with a serial interval of only a few days,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, study co-author from UT Austin.

Meyers explained that public health responders to Ebola outbreaks have much more time to identify and isolate cases before they infect others.

“The data suggest that this coronavirus may spread like the flu. That means we need to move quickly and aggressively to curb the emerging threat,” Meyers added.

In the study, the scientists examined more than 450 infection case reports from 93 cities in China, and found the strongest evidence yet that people without symptoms must be transmitting the virus -- known as pre-symptomatic transmission.

More than one in ten infections were from people who had the virus but did not yet feel sick, the scientists said.

While researchers across the globe had some uncertainty until now about asymptomatic transmission with the coronavirus, the new evidence could provide guidance to public health officials on how to contain the spread of the disease.

“This provides evidence that extensive control measures including isolation, quarantine, school closures, travel restrictions and cancellation of mass gatherings may be warranted,” Meyers said.

The researchers cautioned that asymptomatic transmission makes containment more difficult.

With hundreds of new cases emerging around the world every day, the scientists said, the data may offer a different picture over time.

They said infection case reports are based on people's memories of where they went and whom they had contact with, and if health officials move quickly to isolate patients, that may also skew the data.

“Our findings are corroborated by instances of silent transmission and rising case counts in hundreds of cities worldwide. This tells us that COVID-19 outbreaks can be elusive and require extreme measures,” Meyers said.

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News Network
January 7,2020

Dubai/Washington, Jan 7: Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wept in grief with hundreds of thousands of mourners thronging Tehran's streets on Monday for the funeral of military commander Qassem Soleimani, killed by a U.S. drone on U.S. President Donald Trump's orders.

The coffins of General Qassem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who also died in Friday's attack in Baghdad, were draped in their national flags and passed from hand to hand over the heads of mourners in central Tehran.

Responding to Trump's threats to hit 52 Iranian sites if Tehran retaliates for the drone strike, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani pointedly wrote on Twitter: "Never threaten the Iranian nation." And Soleimani's successor vowed to expel U.S. forces from the Middle East in revenge.

Khamenei, 80, led prayers at the funeral, pausing as his voice cracked with emotion. Soleimani, 62, was a national hero in Iran, even to many who do not consider themselves supporters of Iran's clerical rulers.

Aerial footage showed people, many clad in black, packing thoroughfares and side streets in the Iranian capital, chanting "Death to America!" - a show of national unity after anti-government protests in November in which many demonstrators were killed.

The crowd, which state media said numbered in the millions, recalled the masses of people that gathered in 1989 for the funeral of the Islamic Republic's founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Soleimani, architect of Iran's drive to extend its influence across the Middle East, was widely seen as Iran's second most powerful figure behind Khamenei.

His killing of Soleimani has prompted concern around the world that a broader regional conflict could flare.

Trump on Saturday vowed to strike 52 Iranian targets, including cultural sites, if Iran retaliates with attacks on Americans or U.S. assets, and stood by his threat on Sunday, though American officials sought to downplay his reference to cultural targets. The 52 figure, Trump noted, matched the number of U.S. Embassy hostages held for 444 days after the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

Rouhani, regarded as a moderate, responded to Trump on Twitter.

"Those who refer to the number 52 should also remember the number 290. #IR655," Rouhani wrote, referring to the 1988 shooting down of an Iranian airline by a U.S. warship in which 290 were killed.

Trump also took to Twitter to reiterate the White House stance that "Iran will never have a nuclear weapon" but gave no other details.

'ACTIONS WILL BE TAKEN'

General Esmail Ghaani, Soleimani's successor as commander of the Quds Force, the elite unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guards charged with overseas operations, promised to "continue martyr Soleimani's cause as firmly as before with the help of God, and in return for his martyrdom we aim to rid the region of America."

"God the Almighty has promised to take martyr Soleimani's revenge," he told state television. "Certainly, actions will be taken."

Other political and military leaders have made similar, unspecific threats. Iran, which lies at the mouth of the key Gulf oil shipping route, has a range of proxy forces in the region through which it could act.

Iran's demand for U.S. forces to withdraw from the region gained traction on Sunday when Iraq's parliament passed a resolution calling for all foreign troops to leave the country.

Iraqi caretaker Prime Minister Abdel Abdul Mahdi told the U.S. ambassador to Baghdad on Monday that both nations needed to implement the resolution, the premier's office said in a statement. It did not give a timeline.

The United States has about 5,000 troops in Iraq.

Soleimani built a network of proxy militia that formed a crescent of influence - and a direct challenge to the United States and its regional allies led by Saudi Arabia - stretching from Lebanon through Syria and Iraq to Iran. Outside the crescent, Iran nurtured allied Palestinian and Yemeni groups.

He notably mobilised Shi'ite Muslim militia forces in Iraq that helped to crush ISIS, the Sunni militant group that had seized control of swathes of Syria and Iraq in 2014.

Washington, however, blames Soleimani for attacks on U.S. forces and their allies.

The funeral moves to Soleimani's southern home city of Kerman on Tuesday. Zeinab Soleimani, his daughter, told mourners in Tehran that the United States would face a "dark day" for her father's death, adding, "Crazy Trump, don't think that everything is over with my father's martyrdom."

NUCLEAR DEAL

Iran stoked tensions on Sunday by dropping all limitations on its uranium enrichment, another step back from commitments under a landmark deal with major powers in 2015 to curtail its nuclear programme that Trump abandoned in 2018.

In response, European signatories may launch a dispute resolution process against Iran this week that could lead to a renewal of the United Nations sanctions that were lifted as part of the deal, European diplomats said on Monday.

Diplomats said France, Britain and Germany could make a decision ahead of an EU foreign ministers' meeting on Friday that would assess whether there were any ways to salvage the deal.

After quitting the deal, the United States imposed new sanctions on Iran, saying it wanted to halt Iranian oil exports, the main source of government revenues. Iran's economy has been in freefall as the currency has plunged.

Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway said on Monday that he was still confident he could renegotiate a new nuclear agreement "if Iran wants to start behaving like a normal country."

Tehran has said Washington must return to the existing nuclear pact and lift sanctions before any talks can take place.

The United States advised American citizens in Israel and the Palestinian territories to be vigilant, citing the risk of rocket fire amid heightened tensions. As a U.S. ally against Iran, Israel is concerned about possible rocket attacks from Gaza, ruled by Iranian-backed Palestinian Islamists, or major Iran proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Democratic critics of Trump have said the Republican president was reckless in authorising the strike, with some saying his threat to hit cultural sites amounted to a vow to commit war crimes. Trump also threatened sanctions against Iraq and said Baghdad would have to pay Washington for an air base in Iraq if U.S. troops were required to leave.

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April 5,2020

Washington, Apr 5: US President Donald Trump on Saturday said that he has requested Prime Minister Narendra Modi to supply Hydroxychloroquine tablets that can be used to treat COVID-19 patients.

"After call today with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is giving serious consideration to releasing the hold it put on a US order for hydroxychloroquine," Trump announced at the White House Coronavirus task force briefing that he requested PM Narendra Modi for more Hydroxychloroquine tablets.

President Trump did not shy away from saying he too will take a tablet of hydroxychloroquine after announcing that he has requested Prime Minister during his telephonic conversation earlier today to lift a hold on the US order of the medicine.

"I may take it too, will have to talk to my doctors," he added.

"India makes a lot of it. They need a lot too for their billion-plus people. 

The hydroxychloroquine, the anti-malaria drug will be released through the Strategic National Stockpile for treatment," he said.

"I said I would appreciate if they would release the amounts that we ordered" of hydroxychloroquine, he said.

The Indian government has put on hold the export of anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine and its formulations.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Twitter, "Had an extensive telephone conversation with President @realDonaldTrump. 

We had a good discussion, and agreed to deploy the full strength of the India-US partnership to fight COVID-19."

Prime Minister conveyed deep condolences for the loss of lives in the United States and his prayers for the early recovery of those still suffering from the disease.

As on Sunday, the United States has at least 301,902 cases of coronavirus according to Johns Hopkins University's tally. 

At least 8,175 people have died in the US from coronavirus.

There was a steep rise in the number of cases in the last 24 hours. At least 23,949 new cases were reported, and at least 1,023 new deaths in the US have been reported in the last 24 hours.

US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo had discussions with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar about the importance of continued close cooperation between the United States and India to combat coronavirus by strengthening global pharmaceutical supply chains.

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Agencies
February 4,2020

The death toll in China's coronavirus rose sharply to 425 with 64 deaths on Monday alone while 3,235 new confirmed cases were reported, taking the number of those infected with the deadly disease to 20,438, Chinese health authorities said on Tuesday.

The 64 people who died on Monday were all from the Hubei province, the epicentre of the virus, China's National Health Commission said.

Also, 3,235 new confirmed cases of novel coronavirus infection were reported, a big increase in a day.

Another 5,072 new suspected cases were reported on Monday, said the commission, adding that 492 patients became seriously ill.

The commission said that 2,788 patients remained in severe condition and 23,214 people were suspected of being infected with the virus, a pointer that it is increasingly turning virulent.

The overall confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland had reached 20,438 by the end of Monday, the commission said, noting that a total of 425 people had died of the disease.

A total of 632 people had been discharged from hospital after recovery, state-run Xinhua news agency reported As the virus spreads from human to human, 221,015 close contacts had been traced, with 171,329 others still under medical observation.

By the end of Monday, 15 confirmed cases had been reported in Hong Kong, eight in the Macao and 10 in Taiwan.

The Philippines reported the first overseas death from the virus on Sunday while 148 cases have been reported from abroad.

India has reported three cases of the coronavirus. All the three patients from Kerala recently returned from the affected Wuhan city.

Currently, 647 Indians and seven Maldivians who have been evacuated from Wuhan and Hubei are in 14-day quarantine at a medical camp in Manesar, near Delhi.

As the virus continued to spread at an alarming rate, Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday warned officials of punishment if they shirked responsibility in tackling the virus outbreak.

On Monday, China has opened a 1,000-bed hospital built in record nine days in Wuhan city and started trials for new drug to contain the virus and is set to open another 1,300 bed hospital next to it on Wednesday.

The ruling Communist Party of China on Monday held its political bureau meeting presided by President Xi to review the steps being taken on various fronts to halt the spread of the deadly virus.

The outcome of the epidemic prevention and control directly affects people's lives and health, the overall economic and social stability and the country's opening-up, Xi said.

"Those who disobey the unified command or shirk off responsibilities will be punished," Xi was quoted as saying by the state-run Xinhua news agency.

Xi said that the party and government leaders supervising them would also be held accountable in severe cases.

Chinese armament firms, including those building aircraft carrier and military aircraft, have postponed planned work in order to concentrate on controlling the risk of coronavirus, state-run Global Times reported.

Noted Chinese health expert Zhong Nanshan has said that based on the fresh evidence, the novel coronavirus, which is spreading rapidly in China and the world, may reach its peak in the next 10 to 14 days, contrary to earlier estimates of climaxing sooner.

This means that the cases would drastically increase in the next two weeks before slowing down.

Also, China has begun clinical trials to test a drug to treat the patients of the coronavirus which till now has no cure.

Currently, patients are being treated with a combination of antivirals and other measures, as scientists race to find a vaccine.

Some reports said drugs to treat HIV too was being tried to treat the patients.

The experimental antiviral drug, Remdesivir, to be tested in field trials is developed by US-based Gilead Sciences. It is aimed at treating infectious diseases such as Ebola and SARS, South China Morning Post reported.

It was given to the first US patient last week - a 35-year-old man whose condition appeared to improve within a day, it said.

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