Crude output: US may soon knock down Saud Arabia from second to third place

Agencies
January 20, 2018

London, Jan 20: The rapid growth of US shale producers will shortly knock Saudi Arabia from second to third place among the world’s oil-producing titans, with only Russia ahead, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.

With Venezuelan output plummeting amid political and economic turmoil, the IEA indicated the Kingdom could lose its number two position in 2018.

“Very soon US crude production may overtake that of Saudi Arabia and also rival Russia’s,” it said.

The backdrop is a tightening market amid a significant fall in Venezuelan production, geopolitical uncertainty, continuing falls in inventory levels and OPEC/Russia supply cuts.

But the upshot, said the agency, is likely to be a sizeable pick-up in non-OPEC production. After adding in barrels from Brazil, Canada and other growth countries, and allowing for falls in Mexico, China and elsewhere, total non-OPEC production will increase by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd), IEA said in its latest world oil market report.

The agency said: “This represents, after the downturn in 2016 and the steady recovery in 2017, a return to the heady days of 2013-2015 when US-led growth averaged 1.9 million bpd.

The factors contributing to investor interest in oil include the possible unraveling of the Iran nuclear deal and recent demonstrations in the country, disruption to the industry in Libya, and the closure of the Forties pipeline system.

Although these factors might have faded somewhat, there are others at work, said the IEA. “The general perception that the market has been tightening is clearly the overriding factor and, within this overall picture, there is mounting concern about Venezuela’s production.

A plunge in Venezuelan supply cut OPEC crude output to 32.23 million bpd in December, boosting compliance to 129 percent. Declines are accelerating in Venezuela, which posted the world’s biggest unplanned output fall in 2017.”

Said the IEA: “Venezuelan production is now about half the level inherited by president Chavez in 1999 - and in December output was 490,000 bpd a day lower than a year ago, having fallen to 1.61 million bpd.

The agency said it was reasonable to assume that the decline will continue, but it was impossible to say at what rate. But if output and exports sank further, it was fair to assume other producers would probably step in with the flexibility to deliver oil similar in quality to Venezuela’s shipments to the US and elsewhere, including China.

Market tightening in the final months of 2017 was evident and continued into 2018. OECD commercial stocks declined for the fourth consecutive month in November, by 17.9 million barrels, with a large fall in middle distillates, said IEA. Preliminary data for December suggested a further fall of 42.7 million barrels.

“Additionally, global crude oil markets saw an exceptionally tight fourth quarter in 2017 as the large draw in OECD crude stocks coincided with a decline in Chinese implied crude balances.”

On the demand side, estimates for 2017 and 2018 were roughly unchanged at 97.8 million bpd and 99.1 million bpd respectively.

“The slowdown in 2018 demand growth is mainly due to the impact of higher oil prices, changing patterns of oil use in China, recent weakness in OECD demand and the switch to natural gas in several non-OECD countries. Production was steady on a year ago as non-OPEC gains of nearly 1 mb/d offset declines in OPEC.”

The price of Brent crude oil closed earlier this week above $70 for the first time since Dec. 2, 2014, and money managers have placed record bets on the recent upward momentum continuing. Whether or not the recent price rise has run out of steam and “seventy really is plenty” remained to be seen, said the agency.

“However, such are the geopolitical uncertainties and the ever-dynamic prospects for US shale that we should expect a volatile year,” it added.

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News Network
July 11,2020

Geneva, Jul 11: The World Health Organization said Friday that it is still possible to bring coronavirus outbreaks under control, even though case numbers have more than doubled in the past six weeks.

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the examples of Italy, Spain, South Korea and India's biggest slum showed that however bad a outbreak was, the virus could still be reined in through aggressive action.

"In the last six weeks cases have more than doubled," Tedros told a virtual press conference in Geneva.

However, "there are many examples from around the world that have shown that even if the outbreak is very intense, it can still be brought back under control," said Tedros.

"And some of these examples are Italy, Spain and South Korea, and even in Dharavi -- a densely packed area in the megacity of Mumbai -- a strong focus on community engagement and the basics of testing, tracing, isolating and treating all those that are sick is key to breaking the chains of transmission and suppressing the virus."

The novel coronavirus has killed at least 555,000 people worldwide since the outbreak emerged in China last December, according to a tally from official sources compiled by AFP on Friday.

Nearly 12.3 million cases have been registered in 196 countries and territories.

"Across all walks of life, we are all being tested to the limit," Tedros said, "from countries where there is exponential growth, to places that are loosening restrictions and now starting to see cases rise.

"Only aggressive action combined with national unity and global solidarity can turn this pandemic around."

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News Network
July 14,2020

Washington, Jul 14: Florida on Sunday reported a record 15,300 new coronavirus cases, the most by any state in a single day even as the coronavirus cases in the country have surged to 3,363,056.

The Washington Post reported that the huge number was result of both increased testing and widespread community transmission. The numbers shattered previous highs of 11,694 reported by California last week and 11,571 reported by New York on April 15.

Natalie E. Dean, an assistant professor of biostatistics at the University of Florida wrote that with Florida largely open for business, he doesn't expect this surge to slow.

Nationally, the conversation over reopening has become increasingly fraught amid the newly soaring case numbers, with much of the debate centering on whether schools should open their doors in the fall, reported the Post.

The Health workers in California and Texas too are facing an influx of COVID-19 patients where officials reported seven day averages for new cases - 8,664 and 9060 respectively.

According to the report, Florida has reported nearly 70,000 cases in last week alone, the most of any state.

Even though the COVID-19 cases are surging, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has stuck to an aggressive reopening plan with state officials recently ordering schools to reopen five days a week in the new academic year.

The state is also set to hold the Republican National Convention next month in Jacksonville's VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, an indoor facility that seats about 15,000, reported Washington Post.

Seven-day averages for new cases -- considered a more reliable indicator of the virus's impact than single-day totals -- hit new highs in Alabama, Florida, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Puerto Rico.

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News Network
January 30,2020

New Delhi, Jan 30: Tension spiralled in Jamia Nagar on Thursday after a man fired a pistol at a group of anti-CAA protesters, injuring a Jamia Millia Islamia student before walking away while waving the firearm above his head and shouting "Yeh lo aazadi" amid heavy police presence in the area.

Massive protests erupted in the area after the incident with hundreds of agitated people gathering near the university, breaking barricades and clashing with police personnel.

The man, who identified himself as "Rambhakt Gopal", was subsequently overpowered by police and detained. He was taken into custody and was being interrogated, police said.

The entire drama, which triggered panic in the area, was captured by television cameras that showed the man in light coloured pants and a dark jacket, walking away on an empty road barricaded by police, turning around and shouting at the protesters in Hindi, "Here, take this freedom."

The gunman went live on Facebook before the brandishing the gun. Police said they were verifying whether it is his real name.

Before the attack, the man also put out messages on Facebook stating "Shaheen Bhag Khel Khatam" (Run Shaheen, the game is over). Another message stated, "Please wrap me in saffron in my last journey with slogans of Jai Shri Ram". His Facebook profile was deleted after screenshots of his posts were circulated widely on social media platforms.

Several students recapped how their peaceful march on Gandhi's death anniversary became violent.

"We were moving towards the Holy Family Hospital where the police had raised barricades. Suddenly, a gun-wielding man came out and opened fire. One bullet hit my friend's hand," Aamna Asif, a student of economics at the university, told PTI.

She said her friend, Shadab Farooq, a mass communication student, was trying to calm the attacker but he shot at him injuring his left hand.

Farooq, who belongs to Kashmir, was taken to the AIIMS Trauma Centre.

Ragibh Naushad, an LLB student at the university, said, "The Jamia Coordination Committee organised a march to pay homage to Gandhi ji on his death anniversary. It started at 12 noon from Gate number 7, but police denied the permission and stopped the march near the Holy Family hospital.

"A man named Gopal, came there and started brandishing a weapon and later shot a round. He was also chanting pro-CAA slogans."

The incident led to panic in the area.

Khalid Hassan, a JMI alumnus, said initially many were not sure whether it was a gunshot or a tyre burst.

There was heavy police and media presence when the incident took place.

The students were heading from Jamia to Mahatma Gandhi's memorial Rajghat. The march was stopped at the Holy Family Hospital near the university.

Chinmoy Biswal, DCP (southeast), said the students wanted to take out a march from Jamia to Rajghat but were denied permission.

"They were being repeatedly told that the protest should be carried out peacefully. We had barricaded the road just before the Holy Family hospital. Meanwhile, a person was seen in the crowd who waved something which appeared to be a weapon."

"We have detained him and are interrogating him. One person has also been injured," Biswal said.

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