Curfew lifted from Kashmir Valley, Internet services restored

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

New Delhi, Apr 11: Ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's meeting with chief ministers, senior Congress leader P Chidambaram on Saturday urged CMs of states where the party is in power to unanimously demand for transfer of cash to every poor family.

He said the poor have lost their jobs and have exhausted their savings. They are now standing in lines to get free food, the former Union finance minister said.

Chidambaram said remonetising the poor would cost only Rs 65,000 crore, which is economically viable.

"Chief ministers Amarinder Singh, Ashok Gehlot, Bhupesh Baghel, V Narayanasami, Uddhav Thackeray and E Palaniswani should tell the prime minister today that just as LIVES are important LIVELIHOOD of the poor is important, he tweeted.

"The poor have lost their jobs or self-employment in the last 18 days. They have exhausted their meagre savings. Many are standing in line for food," Chidambaram said.

Can the state stand by and watch them go hungry," he asked, adding that chief ministers should demand that cash be transferred to every poor family immediately.

"Remonetise the poor should be their unanimous demand," Chidambaram said.

Kolkata, May 11: Murshidabad district, one of the biggest contributors to the army of migrant workers from West Bengal, received news of unnatural deaths of three of these people since Saturday. While two died in Kerala, one was found dead in a rented house in Odisha.

Residents of Baliaghati village in Murshidabad’s Suti police station area said Safikul Sheikh (31) was killed in a road accident in Kerala. Sheikh’s associates called up his family on Sunday morning and said he had gone to a local market, violating lockdown orders, when the accident took place. Sheikh wanted to return home before Eid but got stranded.

Mohammad Hafijul, one of Sheikh’s relatives, said, “A few days ago a special train from Kerala carried migrant workers to Murshidabad but Safikul did not have the money to buy a ticket. We do not know how his body will be brought back.”

In another incident, a 24-year-old resident of Domkal allegedly hanged himself in Kerala on Saturday. He used to work in a brick kiln. His mother said, “My son was depressed as he could not buy a ticket to board the special train that came to Murshidabad. We have appealed to the local administration to bring back his body.”

In the third incident, Bakul Sheikh (24) died under mysterious circumstances at Sonepur in Odisha where he went five months ago to work as a mason. Sheikh hails from Kohetpur village in Shamserganj. His relatives told the local police that his associates called up and said he was found dead inside the toilet of the house where he was living with other migrant workers.