D-Day guide: Third straight RBI rate cut seen as economy cools

Agencies
June 6, 2019

Jun 6: The Reserve Bank of India is likely to cement its position as Asia’s most dovish central bank with a third straight interest-rate cut Thursday.

The six-member monetary policy committee led by Governor Shaktikanta Das will reduce the repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 5.75 per cent on Thursday, say 31 of 43 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, while three are penciling in a 50 basis points cut. The RBI may also switch its stance to accommodative from neutral, given that expectations are growing for the Federal Reserve to slash rates this year.

Inflation that’s stayed close to the lower end of RBI’s 2-6 per cent band for six months has given policy makers room to support economic growth. India is among central banks across Asia shifting to looser monetary policy to boost their economies amid risks from the US-China trade war. Philippines, Malaysia and New Zealand eased last month, while Australia cut interest rates this week for the first time in almost three years.

The policy decision will be announced at 11:45 a.m. in Mumbai, followed by a press conference 15 minutes later by Das. Here’s a look at what else to watch out for in the decision that comes weeks before the new government’s annual budget on July 5:

Subdued Growth

Gross domestic product growth slowed to a five-year low of 5.8 per cent in the first three months of the year. Investment has been subdued and early indicators from auto sales to air travel show consumption -- which contributes more than 60 per cent to GDP -- has waned amid a crisis in the shadow banking sector that’s curbed lending.

At its last policy meeting, the central bank cut its GDP forecast for the current fiscal year to 7.2 per cent from 7.4 per cent. Still, the reading depends on how the crucial monsoon season pans out. For now, the southwest monsoon, which waters more than half of India’s farmland between June and September, is expected to bring normal rainfall.

Economists have already trimmed GDP forecasts to 7.1 per cent for fiscal 2020 in the latest Bloomberg survey from 7.2 per cent previously.

“The muted growth seals the case for more rate cuts,” said Upasna Bhardwaj, an economist at Kotak Mahindra BankNSE -0.49 % Ltd. in Mumbai. “We maintain our expectation of 25 basis point rate cuts in June and August —- though an outside chance of a 50 basis-point rate cut in June itself could build up.”

Benign Inflation

With growth slowing and inflation expected to remain below the RBI’s 4 per cent medium-term target in 2019, the central bank has room to cut. Underlying inflation, which strips out volatile fuel and food prices, has eased since November and economists expect it to move toward the headline rate in the coming months.

Policy makers might choose to gloss over a recent uptick in food costs, given record grain stocks and declining oil prices.

Policy Stance

Apart from its likely rate cut, the RBI will have to tackle issues surrounding sluggish monetary policy transmission. Despite lowering rates by 50 basis points this year, bank lending costs have been rather sticky amid tighter liquidity. Those conditions, though, are showing nascent signs of easing.

“We think that rate cuts need to be accompanied by sustained injections of durable liquidity into the economy,” said Kapil Gupta, an economist at Edelweiss Securities Ltd. in Mumbai. “We also see a good chance of the policy stance shifting to accommodative/dovish from neutral currently.”

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News Network
April 17,2020

New Delhi, Apr 17: With 1,076 new cases of COVID-19 in the last 24 hours and 32 deaths, India's total count of coronavirus cases has surged to 13,835, said the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Friday.

The total cases are inclusive of 1,766 cured and discharged patients, one migrated and 452 deaths. At present, there are 11,616 active COVID-19 cases in the country.

Before the lockdown, the doubling rate of COVID-19 cases was about three days, but according to the data of the past 7 days, the doubling rate of cases now stands at 6.2 days, said Lav Aggarwal, Joint Secretary, Health and Family Welfare.

"Before the lockdown, doubling rate of COVID-19 cases was about three days but according to the data of past 7 days, the doubling rate of cases now stands at 6.2 days," Aggarwal said during the daily briefing on COVID-19.

Aggarwal said that as many as 5 lakh rapid antibody testing kits are being distributed to States and Districts where a high case burden has been observed.

"A total of 1,919 dedicated COVID-19 hospitals with 1.73 lakh isolation beds, 21,800 ICU beds readied in India," he added. 

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News Network
June 19,2020

Jun 19: Billionaire Mukesh Ambani on Friday announced that his oil-to-telecom conglomerate Reliance Industries is now net debt-free after raising a record Rs 1.69 lakh crore from global investors and a rights issue in under two months.

Reliance raised Rs 1.15 lakh crore from global tech investors by selling a little less than a quarter of the firm's digital arm, Jio Platforms Ltd, and another Rs 53,124.20 crore through a rights issue in the past 58 days.

Taken together with last year's sale of 49 per cent stake in fuel retailing venture to BP Plc of UK for Rs 7,000 crore, the total fund raised is in excess of Rs 1.75 lakh crore, the company said in a statement.

Reliance had a net debt of Rs 1,61,035 crore as on March 31, 2020. "With these investments, RIL has become net debt-free," it said.

"I have fulfilled my promise to the shareholders by making Reliance net debt-free much before our original schedule of March 31, 2021," Ambani said.

Jio Platforms - which houses the country's youngest but largest telecom firm Reliance Jio, raised Rs 1,15,693.95 crore from leading global investors including Facebook, Silver Lake, Vista Equity Partners, General Atlantic, KKR, Mubadala, ADIA, TPG, L Catterton and PIF since April 22, 2020.

Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund PIF buying 2.32 per cent stake in the unit for Rs 11,367 crore on June 18 "marks the end of Jio Platforms' current phase of induction of financial partners," the statement said.

Alongside, Reliance launched India's biggest right issue, which was subscribed to 1.59 times.

Though the rights issue size was Rs 53,124 crore, the company has got only 25 per cent of the money as the remaining is to be paid only next fiscal.

Ambani had at the company's annual general meeting on August 12, 2019, announced a roadmap for Reliance to become a net debt-free company before March 31, 2021.

"We have a very clear roadmap to becoming a zero net-debt company within the next 18 months that is by March 31, 202," he had said last year highlighting strong interest from strategic and financial investors in consumer businesses, Jio and Reliance Retail.

In the statement on Friday, he said he was both delighted and humbled to announce the fulfillment of the promise.

"Exceeding the expectations of our shareholders and all other stakeholders, again and yet again, is in the very DNA of Reliance," he said.

"Therefore, on the proud occasion of becoming a net debt-free company, I wish to assure them that Reliance in its Golden Decade will set even more ambitious growth goals, and achieve them," he added.

He said over the past few weeks, phenomenal interest was received from the global financial investor community in partnering with Jio.

"As our fundraising milestone from financial investors is achieved, we sincerely thank the marquee group of financial partners and warmly welcome them into Jio Platforms," he said.

"I also express my heartfelt gratitude to all the retail and institutional investors, both domestic and foreign, for their overwhelming participation in our record-setting Rights Issue," he added.

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News Network
January 6,2020

Jan 6: India’s Finance Ministry has delivered a challenge to its revenue collectors: meet tax targets despite $20 billion of corporate tax cuts.

Through a video conference on Dec. 16, officials were exhorted to meet the direct tax mop-up target of 13.4 trillion rupees ($187 billion), a government official told reporters. Collection in the eight months to November grew at 5% from a year earlier, against the desired 17%.

The missive shows Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s urgent need to buoy public finances in a slowing economy where April-November tax collections were half the amount budgeted. Authorities withheld some payments to states and have capped ministries’ expenditure as the fiscal deficit ballooned beyond the target.

The government’s efforts to maintain its deficit goal goes against advice from some quarters, including central bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, who urged more spending to spur economic growth.

It’s uncertain though how much room Modi’s administration has to boost expenditure, given that it may already be borrowing as much as 540 billion rupees through state-run companies, a figure that isn’t reflected on the federal balance sheet. Uncertainty about public finances pushed up sovereign yields in November and December, compelling Das to announce unconventional policies to keep costs in check.

“This is not a time to conceal the fiscal deficit by off-budget borrowing or deferring payments,” said Indira Rajaraman, an economist and a former member of the Reserve Bank of India’s board. “If they were to stick to the target, that would be catastrophic because there is so much pump-priming that is needed right now.”

GDP grew 4.5% in the quarter ended September, the slowest pace in more than six years as both consumption and investments cooled in Asia’s third-largest economy. Only government spending supported the expansion, piling pressure on Modi to keep stimulating.

S&P Global Ratings warned in December it may downgrade India’s sovereign ratings if economic growth doesn’t recover. Government support seems to be waning now, with ministries asked to cap spending in the final quarter of the financial year at 25% of the amount budgeted rather than 33% allowed earlier. This new rule will hamstring sectors including agriculture, aviation and coal, where not even half of annual targets have been disbursed.

As the federal government runs short of money, it’s been delaying payouts to state administrations.

Private hospitals have threatened to suspend cash-less services to government employees over non-payment of dues, while a builder informed the stock exchange about delayed rental payments from no less than the tax office itself.

India is considering a litigation-settlement plan that will allow companies to exit lingering tax disputes by paying a portion of the money demanded by the government, the Economic Times newspaper reported Saturday.

The move will help improve the ease of doing business besides unlocking a part of the almost 8 trillion rupees ($111 billion) caught up in these disputes. The step, which is being considered as part of the annual budget, could also bridge India’s fiscal gap.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has refused to comment on the deficit goal before the official budget presentation due Feb. 1.

A deviation from target, if any, “will need to be balanced with a credible consolidation plan further-out,” said Radhika Rao, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore.

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