D-Day guide: Third straight RBI rate cut seen as economy cools

Agencies
June 6, 2019

Jun 6: The Reserve Bank of India is likely to cement its position as Asia’s most dovish central bank with a third straight interest-rate cut Thursday.

The six-member monetary policy committee led by Governor Shaktikanta Das will reduce the repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 5.75 per cent on Thursday, say 31 of 43 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, while three are penciling in a 50 basis points cut. The RBI may also switch its stance to accommodative from neutral, given that expectations are growing for the Federal Reserve to slash rates this year.

Inflation that’s stayed close to the lower end of RBI’s 2-6 per cent band for six months has given policy makers room to support economic growth. India is among central banks across Asia shifting to looser monetary policy to boost their economies amid risks from the US-China trade war. Philippines, Malaysia and New Zealand eased last month, while Australia cut interest rates this week for the first time in almost three years.

The policy decision will be announced at 11:45 a.m. in Mumbai, followed by a press conference 15 minutes later by Das. Here’s a look at what else to watch out for in the decision that comes weeks before the new government’s annual budget on July 5:

Subdued Growth

Gross domestic product growth slowed to a five-year low of 5.8 per cent in the first three months of the year. Investment has been subdued and early indicators from auto sales to air travel show consumption -- which contributes more than 60 per cent to GDP -- has waned amid a crisis in the shadow banking sector that’s curbed lending.

At its last policy meeting, the central bank cut its GDP forecast for the current fiscal year to 7.2 per cent from 7.4 per cent. Still, the reading depends on how the crucial monsoon season pans out. For now, the southwest monsoon, which waters more than half of India’s farmland between June and September, is expected to bring normal rainfall.

Economists have already trimmed GDP forecasts to 7.1 per cent for fiscal 2020 in the latest Bloomberg survey from 7.2 per cent previously.

“The muted growth seals the case for more rate cuts,” said Upasna Bhardwaj, an economist at Kotak Mahindra BankNSE -0.49 % Ltd. in Mumbai. “We maintain our expectation of 25 basis point rate cuts in June and August —- though an outside chance of a 50 basis-point rate cut in June itself could build up.”

Benign Inflation

With growth slowing and inflation expected to remain below the RBI’s 4 per cent medium-term target in 2019, the central bank has room to cut. Underlying inflation, which strips out volatile fuel and food prices, has eased since November and economists expect it to move toward the headline rate in the coming months.

Policy makers might choose to gloss over a recent uptick in food costs, given record grain stocks and declining oil prices.

Policy Stance

Apart from its likely rate cut, the RBI will have to tackle issues surrounding sluggish monetary policy transmission. Despite lowering rates by 50 basis points this year, bank lending costs have been rather sticky amid tighter liquidity. Those conditions, though, are showing nascent signs of easing.

“We think that rate cuts need to be accompanied by sustained injections of durable liquidity into the economy,” said Kapil Gupta, an economist at Edelweiss Securities Ltd. in Mumbai. “We also see a good chance of the policy stance shifting to accommodative/dovish from neutral currently.”

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News Network
May 12,2020

London, May 12: British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned that a mass vaccine for the novel coronavirus may be over a year away and, in the worst-case scenario, may in fact never be found.

In his foreword to the government’s new 50-page guidance on a step by step easing of the lockdown measures in place to control the spread of the deadly virus, the UK prime minister lays out plans for businesses to gradually start reopening with “COVID-19 Secure” measures of social distancing and for the public to use “good solid British common sense” as the economy is unlocked.

“A mass vaccine or treatment may be more than a year away,” said Johnson, highlighting the work being done in the UK by scientists at Oxford University and Imperial College London towards this mission.

“Indeed, in a worst-case scenario, we may never find a vaccine. So our plan must countenance a situation where we are in this, together, for the long haul, even while doing all we can to avoid that outcome,” he said.

Admitting that a vaccine or drug-based treatment is the only “feasible long-term solution”, he said the UK has accelerated this with “promising” vaccine development programmes and a collaboration between Oxford University and pharma major AstraZeneca was a vital step that could help rapidly advance the manufacture of a Covid-19 vaccine when it is ready.

As part of global efforts, he flagged the GBP 388 million in aid funding for research into vaccines, tests and treatment, including GBP 250m to the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations.

“But while we hope for a breakthrough, hope is not a plan,” he said, as he unveiled his plan for starting to lift lockdown restrictions from this week in phases.

Following a televised address to the nation on Sunday night and a statement in Parliament on Monday, the guidance comes into effect in public life across England from Wednesday when people will be allowed one-to-one contact with people other than those they live with, as long as they remain outside and two metres apart.

They are allowed to play sport with a friend or family member from outside their household or socialise with them in the open air for the first time in more than six weeks since the lockdown was imposed.

People are still advised to work from home where possible but start heading into work where necessary, in sectors such as construction and manufacturing, keeping the social distancing norms in place.

Under the step by step plan, by the start of next month non-essential shops will also reopen, with some hairdressers, pubs and cinemas to follow from July. However, as part of a Covid-19 Alert System, if infection rates are seen to be rising again, restrictions would be tightened “possibly at short notice”.

Fines for breaching the new rules will also be increased to GBP 100 and will double for each repeat offence, up to a maximum of GBP 3,200.

Johnson said: "I must ask the country to be patient with a continued disruption to our normal way of life, but to be relentless in pursuing our mission to build the systems we need. The worst possible outcome would be a return to the virus being out of control – with the cost to human life, and – through the inevitable re-imposition of severe restrictions – the cost to the economy. We must stay alert, control the virus, and in doing so, save lives.

“Then, as vaccines and treatment become available, we will move to another new phase, where we will learn to live with Covid-19 for the longer term without it dominating our lives.”

The devolved administrations of Scotland and Wales are putting their own measures in place and keeping the “stay at home” message in place, rather than switch to the new “stay alert” message.

The UK government’s latest messaging has come under attack from the Opposition and other sections of society over a feared lack of clarity for the general public.

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News Network
February 3,2020

Indore, Feb 3: Senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh on Sunday attacked the Centre for conferring the Padma Shri on Pakistan-origin singer Adnan Sami, who became an Indian citizen in 2016.

Addressing "Save the Constitution, Save the Country" rally here in Madhya Pradesh, Singh said Sami's father had "pounded India with bombs" when he was serving with the Pakistani Air Force (PAF).

"Since Sami is an artist who has come from Pakistan, I had recommended his case to the Indian government for citizenship. He has got Indian citizenship under the Modi government," the Congress leader said, adding that he never made any recommendation to the government for conferring Padma Shri on Sami.

He said Sami's father had "dropped bombs against us" while flying a Pakistan Air Force combat plane.

"In contrast, Indian Army officer Sanaullah of Assam, who had fought against the enemy, was sent to a detention camp for failing to show documents (during the Assam NRC exercise). This is the citizenship law of the Modi government," he said.

Sami, born in London to a Pakistani Air force veteran, applied for Indian citizenship in 2015 and became a citizen of the country in January 2016.

He was one of the 118 people chosen for the Padma Shri awards by the Centre last month.

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Indian Citizen
 - 
Monday, 3 Feb 2020

 

Nowadays, Modi is uttering Pakistan even in his dream, while putting the India & Indians on the fence.

BSF Officer Sanaullah was deprived of his basic rights and put in the detention center while Adnan Sami was granted citizenship and conferred with prestigious "Padma Shri" Award. Really, Modi & Amit Shah duos doesn't know what they are doing in India.....what a bizzare!!!

 

Indian Citizen
 - 
Monday, 3 Feb 2020

Nowadays, Modi is uttering Pakistan even in his dream, while putting the India & Indians on the fence.

BSF Officer Sanaullah was deprived of his basic rights and put in the detention center while Adnan Sami was granted citizenship and conferred with prestigious "Padma Shri" Award. Really, Modi & Amit Shah duos doesn't know what they are doing in India.....what a bizzare!!!

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News Network
February 21,2020

Nagpur, Feb 21: Former Maharashtra chief minister and senior BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis on Friday condemned AIMIM leader Waris Pathan's reported remarks that 15 crore Muslims are more than a match for the country's 100 crore Hindus, and asked the latter not to mistake the majority community's tolerance for weakness.

Pathan has been widely condemned for reportedly stating that "15 crore hain lekin 100 crore pe bhari hain".

He purportedly made these comments while addressing an anti-Citizenship (Amendment) Act rally in Kalaburagi in north Karnataka on February 16. The AIMIM leader has claimed he was quoted out of context.

Speaking to reporters in Nagpur, Fadnavis demanded an apology from Pathan and asked the Uddhav Thackeray government to take action.

"We condemn the statement made by Waris Pathan and demand an apology. In case he does not apologise, the state government must take action against him," he said.

Fadnavis said Pathan should understand that minorities were safe and enjoyed full freedom in India because 100 crore Hindus live in the country.

He said no one would dare utter such a statement in a Muslim-majority nation, adding that the "Hindu community is tolerant but its tolerance should not be mistaken for weakness".

"Pathan should apologise to the nation and the Hindu community," he said.

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