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New Delhi, May 6: Around 39 crore people have received financial assistance of Rs 34,800 crore amid the COVID-19 lockdown under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Package (PMGKP) as on May 5, the government said in a statement.

These people received the assistance, which was announced by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on March 26 to protect them from the impact of the lockdown due to COVID 19, via digital payment infrastructure.

The swift implementation of the free food grain and cash payment package under PMGKP is being continuously monitored by Central and state governments. Also, Fintech and digital technology have been employed for swift and efficient transfer to the beneficiary.

As per the data provided by the government, Rs 16,394 crore front-loaded towards payment of the first installment of PM-KISAN was provided to 8.19 crore beneficiaries.

Rs 10,025 crore credited to 20.05 crore (98.33 per cent) women Jan Dhan account holders as first installment and Rs 2,785 crore credited to 5.57 crore women in the second installment.

Further, Rs 1,405 crore was disbursed to about 2.82 crore old age persons, widows and disabled persons and Rs 3,492.57 crore financial support was given to 2.20 crore building and construction workers.

Moreover, foodgrain has been distributed, covering 60.33 crore beneficiaries in all 36 Union Territories and states till April and 12.39 crore beneficiaries by 22 states/UTs for May. Pulses have been distributed so far to 5.21 crore household beneficiaries out of 19.4 crore such beneficiaries.

Over 5 crore cylinders have been booked under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) and 4.82 crore free cylinders already delivered to beneficiaries.

While 9.6 lakh members of Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) has taken benefit of online withdrawal of non-refundable advance from EPFO account amounting to Rs 2,985 crore, 24 per cent EPF contribution transferred to 44.97 lakh employees account amounting to Rs 698 crore.

In the current financial year, 5.97 crore person's man-days of work generated under MNREGA scheme and Rs 21,032 crore were released to states to liquidate pending dues of both wage and material.

Insurance scheme for health workers in government hospitals and health care centres has been operationalised by New India Assurance covering 22.12 lakh health workers.

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

May 18: Goldman Sachs expects India will experience its deepest recession ever after a poor run of data underscored the damaging economic impact of lockdowns in the world’s second-most populous nation.

Gross domestic product will contract by an annualized 45% in the second quarter from the prior three months, compared with Goldman’s previous forecast of a 20% slump. A stronger rebound of 20% is now seen for the third quarter, while projections for the fourth quarter and first of next year are unchanged at 14% and 6.5%.

Those estimates imply that real GDP will fall by 5% in the 2021 fiscal year, which would be deeper than any other recession India has ever experienced, Goldman economists Prachi Mishra and Andrew Tilton wrote in a note dated May 17.

India’s government has extended its nationwide lockdown until May 31, while further easing restrictions in certain sectors to boost economic activity, as coronavirus cases escalate across the country. The announcement followed Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s fifth briefing in as many days, in which she outlined details of the country’s $265 billion virus rescue package, which is equivalent to 10% of India’s GDP.

 “There have been a series of structural reform announcements across several sectors over the past few days,” the Goldman economists wrote. “These reforms are more medium-term in nature, and we, therefore, do not expect these to have an immediate impact on reviving growth. We will continue to monitor their implementation to gauge their effect on the medium-term outlook.”

Infections are surging across the South Asian nation of 1.3 billion people, with more than 91,300 infections, including 2,897 deaths as of Sunday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.