Dalit agitation death toll mounts

The ILO has warned that if another Covid-19 wave hits in the second half of 2020, there would be global working-hour loss of 11.9 percent - equivalent to the loss of 340 million full-time jobs.

According to the 5th edition of International Labour Organisation (ILO) Monitor: Covid-19 and the world of work, the recovery in the global labour market for the rest of the year will be uncertain and incomplete.

The report said that there was a 14 percent drop in global working hours during the second quarter of 2020, equivalent to the loss of 400 million full-time jobs.

The number of working hours lost across the world in the first half of 2020 was significantly worse than previously estimated. The highly uncertain recovery in the second half of the year will not be enough to go back to pre-pandemic levels even in the best scenario, the agency warned.

The baseline model – which assumes a rebound in economic activity in line with existing forecasts, the lifting of workplace restrictions and a recovery in consumption and investment – projects a decrease in working hours of 4.9 percent (equivalent to 140 million full-time jobs) compared to last quarter of 2019.

It says that in the pessimistic scenario, the situation in the second half of 2020 would remain almost as challenging as in the second quarter.

“Even if one assumes better-tailored policy responses – thanks to the lessons learned throughout the first half of the year – there would still be a global working-hour loss of 11.9 per cent at the end of 2020, or 340 million full-time jobs, relative to the fourth quarter of 2019,” it said.

The pessimistic scenario assumes a second pandemic wave and the return of restrictions that would significantly slow recovery. The optimistic scenario assumes that workers’ activities resume quickly, significantly boosting aggregate demand and job creation. With this exceptionally fast recovery, the global loss of working hours would fall to 1.2 per cent (34 million full-time jobs).

The agency said that under the three possible scenarios for recovery in the next six months, “none” sees the global job situation in better shape than it was before lockdown measures began.

“This is why we talk of an uncertain but incomplete recovery even in the best of scenarios for the second half of this year. So there is not going to be a simple or quick recovery,” ILO Director-General Guy Ryder said.

The new figures reflect the worsening situation in many regions over the past weeks, especially in developing economies. Regionally, working time losses for the second quarter were: Americas (18.3 percent), Europe and Central Asia (13.9 percent), Asia and the Pacific (13.5 percent), Arab States (13.2 percent), and Africa (12.1 percent).

The vast majority of the world’s workers (93 per cent) continue to live in countries with some sort of workplace closures, with the Americas experiencing the greatest restrictions.

During the first quarter of the year, an estimated 5.4 percent of global working hours (equivalent to 155 million full-time jobs) were lost relative to the fourth quarter of 2019. Working- hour losses for the second quarter of 2020 relative to the last quarter of 2019 are estimated to reach 14 per cent worldwide (equivalent to 400 million full-time jobs), with the largest reduction (18.3 per cent) occurring in the Americas.

The ILO Monitor also found that women workers have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic, creating a risk that some of the modest progress on gender equality made in recent decades will be lost, and that work-related gender inequality will be exacerbated.

The severe impact of Covid-19 on women workers relates to their over-representation in some of the economic sectors worst affected by the crisis, such as accommodation, food, sales and manufacturing.

Globally, almost 510 million or 40 percent of all employed women work in the four most affected sectors, compared to 36.6 percent of men, it said.

The report said that women also dominate in the domestic work and health and social care work sectors, where they are at greater risk of losing their income and of infection and transmission and are also less likely to have social protection.

The pre-pandemic unequal distribution of unpaid care work has also worsened during the crisis, exacerbated by the closure of schools and care services.

Even as countries have adopted policy measures with unprecedented speed and scope, the ILO Monitor highlights some key challenges ahead, including finding the right balance and sequencing of health, economic and social and policy interventions to produce optimal sustainable labour market outcomes; implementing and sustaining policy interventions at the necessary scale when resources are likely to be increasingly constrained and protecting and promoting the conditions of vulnerable, disadvantaged and hard-hit groups to make labour markets fairer and more equitable.

“The decisions we adopt now will echo in the years to come and beyond 2030. Although countries are at different stages of the pandemic and a lot has been done, we need to redouble our efforts if we want to come out of this crisis in a better shape than when it started,” Ryder said. 

May 15: Global tensions simmered over the race for a coronavirus vaccine Thursday, as the United States and China traded jabs, and France slammed pharmaceuticals giant Sanofi for suggesting the US would get any eventual vaccine first.

Scientists are working at breakneck speed to develop a vaccine for COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, which has killed more than 300,000 people worldwide and pummelled economies.

From the US to Europe to Asia, national and local governments are easing lockdown orders to get people back to work -- while fretting over a possible second wave of infections.

Increased freedom of movement means an increased risk of contracting the virus, and so national labs and private firms are labouring to find the right formula for a vaccine.

The European Union's medicines agency offered some hope when it said one could be ready in a year, based on data from clinical trials already underway.

But Marco Cavaleri, the EMA's head of vaccines strategy, acknowledged that timeline was a "best-case scenario," and cautioned that "there may be delays."

The race for a vaccine has exposed a raw nerve in relations between the United States and China, where the virus was first detected late last year in the central city of Wuhan.

Two US agencies warned Wednesday that Chinese hackers were trying to steal COVID-19 vaccine research -- a claim Beijing rejected as "smearing" its reputation.

US President Donald Trump, who has ratcheted up the rhetoric against China, said he doesn't even want to engage with Chinese leader Xi Jinping -- potentially imperilling a trade deal between the world's top two economies.

"I'm very disappointed in China. I will tell you that right now," he said in an interview with Fox Business.

"There are many things we could do. We could do things. We could cut off the whole relationship."

On Capitol Hill, an ousted US health official told Congress that the Trump government had no strategy in place to find and distribute a vaccine to millions of Americans, warning of the "darkest winter" ahead.

"We don't have a single point of leadership right now for this response, and we don't have a master plan," said Rick Bright, who was removed last month as head of the US agency charged with developing a coronavirus vaccine.

The United States has registered nearly 86,000 deaths linked to COVID-19 -- the highest toll of any nation.

World leaders were among 140 signatories to a letter published Thursday saying any vaccine should not be patented and that the science should be shared among nations.

"Governments and international partners must unite around a global guarantee which ensures that, when a safe and effective vaccine is developed, it is produced rapidly at scale and made available for all people, in all countries, free of charge," it said.

But a row erupted in France after drugmaker Sanofi said it would reserve first shipments of any vaccine it discovered to the United States.

The comments prompted a swift rebuke from the French government -- President Emmanuel Macron's office said any vaccine should be treated as "a global public good, which is not submitted to market forces."

Sanofi chief executive Paul Hudson said the US had a risk-sharing model that allowed for manufacturing to start before a vaccine had been finally approved -- while Europe did not.

"The US government has the right to the largest pre-order because it's invested in taking the risk," Hudson told Bloomberg News.

Macron's top officials are scheduled to meet with Sanofi executives about the issue next week.

The search for a vaccine became even more urgent after the World Health Organization said the disease may never go away and the world would have to learn to live with it for good.

"This virus may become just another endemic virus in our communities and this virus may never go away," said Michael Ryan, the UN body's emergencies director.

The prospect of the disease lingering leaves governments facing a delicate balancing act between suppressing the pathogen and getting their economies up and running.

In the US, more grim economic data emerged Thursday, with nearly three million more Americans applying for unemployment benefits.

That takes the overall total to 36.5 million -- more than 10 percent of the US population.

Further signs of the damage to businesses emerged when Lloyd's of London forecast the pandemic will cost the global insurance industry about $203 billion.

European markets closed down, but Wall Street rallied despite the new jobless claims. In a sign of progress, the New York Stock Exchange trading floor was due to reopen on May 26.

The reopening of economies continued in earnest across Europe, where the EU has set out proposals for a phased restart of travel and the eventual lifting of border controls.

"Maybe it's a mistake, but we have no choice. Without tourists, we won't get by!" Enrico Facchetti, a 61-year-old former goldsmith, said of Venice's reopening.

Japan -- the world's third largest economy -- lifted a state of emergency across most of the country except for Tokyo and Osaka.

And Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said national parks would partially reopen on June 1.

But in Latin America, the virus continued to surge, with a 60 percent leap in cases in the Chilean capital of Santiago.

Authorities said 2,000 new graves were being dug at the main cemetery.

South Sudan reported its first COVID-19 death on Thursday.

And in Bangladesh, the first case was confirmed in the teeming Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh, which are home to nearly one million people.

New Delhi, Jun 18: The border clash between Indian and Chinese soldiers in Ladakh broke the brittle quiet – and also the sense of security for anxious Chinese nationals in India who fear a backlash with anti-Chinese sentiment spiralling in the country.

With the high altitude violent face-off in eastern Ladakh’s Galwan Valley spurring hashtags such as “Boycott China” and “Teach Lesson to China” and leading to street protests, the undercurrents of tension were evident.

Wary of being identified, some said they had been reassured by their friends but were still apprehensive for themselves and their families.

"They (Chinese families) don''t want to speak to the media. They are not going out and are worried about their security and well being. Their families are also worried back home," Mohammed Saqib, secretary general of the India China Economic & Cultural Council, told PTI.

He added that his Chinese friends in India been calling him since they heard news about Monday night’s clashes in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed -- the worst military confrontation in five decades -- and expressed concern over growing anti-China sentiments.

A Chinese national from Beijing working in Gurgaon for a Chinese mobile firm initially refused to talk, saying he did not want to speak to the media and later shared his thoughts only on condition of anonymity.

"There is talk of border standoff and tensions, but we know Indians are very warm people and that is why I have told my family that all is fine here and they should not worry," he said.

Another Chinese national working in Gurgaon said he and his family are feeling the stress amid the spiralling conflict between India and China, but many friends have been reassuring him.

"They (Chinese in India) are under a lot of stress naturally. Such a conflict puts a lot of stress as they could bear the brunt and the same applies to Indians in China," B R Deepak, professor at the Centre for Chinese and South East Asian Studies of the Jawaharlal Nehru University said.

He said it was unfortunate that the border standoff derailed the commemorative programmes aimed at strengthening ties at a time the two countries were gearing to celebrate 70 years of establishment of diplomatic ties.

Experts also feel the border clash is likely to have a significant negative impact on the economic and people to people ties.

There are scores of Chinese in India working in various Chinese firms and also those who are studying in universities like JNU.

About 3,000 Chinese people, doing business or studying in big cities in India, were stranded in India at the start of the COVID-19 crisis, and about half of them returned to China before the lockdown began on March 25.

The Chinese Embassy in New Delhi announced on May 25 that they will arrange for flights to take back students, tourists and businesspersons to five Chinese cities, including Shanghai and Guangzhou.

"It will impact the psychology of the Chinese here. There are 2,000 Chinese firms in various sectors in India which are going to be impacted," Deepak said.

Future investments from the Chinese side could also be impacted, he said.

Moreover, as far as people-to-people contacts are concerned, the number of Chinese students choosing India as a preferred destination is likely to go down, Deepak said.

Alka Acharya, another China expert, said there are two kinds of impacts of such an incident -- short term and medium term.

Usually after the initial nationalistic reaction in the short term things tend to normalise in the medium term, but with such a border clash happening for the first time in decades clearly the resonance would be much more in both India and China, said Acharya, professor at the Centre for East Asian Studies, School of International Studies, in JNU.

“Due to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the economy, whether India can take a hardline in terms of economics towards China, is a tricky question,” she said.

In the immediate context, there may be a dip in economic ties with calls for boycott of Chinese goods and services, Acharya said.

The manner in which this crisis is resolved will affect how ties will be affected in the medium term, she said.

The headlines have added to the anxiety.

A group of ex-armymen gathered near the Chinese embassy to protest the killing of 20 Indian Army personnel in Ladakh’s Galwan Valley. And another group of around 10 protesters belonging to the Swadeshi Jagaran Manch protested near the Teen Murti roundabout in Central Delhi.

The anti-China sentiment prevalent among the common public is also finding a reflection in government policy with sources saying the Department of Telecom (DoT) is set to ask state-owned Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) not to use Chinese telecom gear in its 4G upgradation.

Trade bodies like CAIT are also calling for a boycott of Chinese products.

And Chinese handset maker Oppo cancelled the livestream launch of its flagship 5G smartphone in the country amid protests.

Monday night’s clashes between the Chinese and Indian troops in Galwan Valley significantly escalated the already volatile border standoff between the two countries.

The casualties on the Chinese side are not yet known. However, government sources, citing an American intelligence report, claimed the total number of soldiers killed and seriously wounded could be 35.