Dark days ahead for Indian rupee, reveal strategists

Agencies
March 7, 2019

Mar 7: The Indian rupee's weak start to 2019 is an indication of how it will perform over the coming year, strategists in a Reuters poll said, citing uncertainty ahead of a general election in May and a potential trade conflict with the United States.

Last year, the currency tumbled about 10 per cent and hit a record low of 74.485 to the dollar in October, marking its worse performance since 2013, driven by a sell-off in emerging markets and a widening fiscal deficit as oil prices rose.

While the consensus showed the rupee would not breach that record over the next 12 months, the currency was expected to weaken over 1 per cent to 71.28 in 12 months from about 70.50 on Wednesday, according to the poll of 50 currency strategists.

Still, in a general upswing for most currencies against the dollar, the rupee recouped some of its 2018 losses last month.

But the Indian currency, which is down about 1 per cent this year, is forecast to weaken nearly 2 per cent by end-May, suggesting upcoming elections are a clear risk.

"The rupee's weakness has started kicking back in...and will remain in play until the political dust settles," said Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING.

A separate Reuters survey of equity strategists showed a majority win for the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) would be the most favorable outcome for stocks. Similarly, the rupee's stability would be influenced by the status quo being maintained post-election.

"We expect a win for the BJP in May, but it will be very difficult for the BJP to get a substantial majority...which will complicate a further implementation of necessary reforms," said Hugo Erken, a senior economist at Rabobank.

"In the medium-term we expect a gradual depreciation of the INR due to a normalization of inflation rates. In case of a loss for the BJP in May, we expect financial market volatility - the INR could potentially spike to 74, the levels that we saw during the Indian rupee crisis last year."

In addition to concerns about economic growth, which hit its slowest in five-quarters late last year, U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to cut India out of its Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which allows duty-free entry of some Indian exports into the United States, is also likely to weigh on the rupee.

"While the global trade anxiety remains a headwind to the Indian economy and the INR, I wonder if it's now India on the US's radar after China, based on what the latest development of the U.S. ending the GSP may herald," added ING's Sakpal.

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News Network
January 30,2020

Jan 30: The death toll rose to 170 in the new virus outbreak in China on Thursday as foreign evacuees from the worst-hit region begin returning home under close observation and world health officials expressed “great concern” that the disease is starting to spread between people outside of China.

Thursday’s figures cover the previous 24 hours and represent an increase of 38 deaths and 1,737 cases for a total of 7,711. Of the new deaths, 37 were in the epicenter of the outbreak in Hubei province and one in the southwestern province of Sichuan.

The news comes as the 195 Americans evacuated from Wuhan, the Hubei province city of 11 million where the outbreak originated, are undergoing three days of testing and monitoring at a Southern California military base to make sure they do not show signs of the virus.

A group of 210 Japanese evacuees from Wuhan landed Thursday at Tokyo’s Haneda airport on a second government chartered flight, according to the foreign ministry. Reports said nine of those aboard the flight showed signs of cough and fever. Three of the 206 Japanese who returned on Wednesday tested positive for the new coronavirus, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said during a parliamentary session. Two of them showed no symptoms of the disease.

France, New Zealand, Australia and other countries are also pulling out their citizens or making plans to do so.

The World Health Organization emergencies chief said the few cases of human-to-human spread of the virus outside China — in Japan, Germany, Canada and Vietnam — were of “great concern” and were part of the reason the U.N. health agency’s director-general was reconvening a committee of experts on Thursday to assess whether the outbreak should be declared a global emergency.

The new virus has now infected more people in China than were sickened there during the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak.

Dr. Michael Ryan spoke at a news conference in Geneva on Wednesday after returning from a trip to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other senior government leaders. He said China was taking “extraordinary measures in the face of an extraordinary challenge” posed by the outbreak.

To date, about 99% of the cases are in China. Ryan estimated the death rate of the new virus at 2%, but said the figure was very preliminary. With fluctuating numbers of cases and deaths, scientists are only able to produce a rough estimate of the fatality rate and it’s likely many milder cases of the virus are being missed.

In comparison, the SARS virus killed about 10% of people who caught it. The new virus is from the coronavirus family, which includes those that can cause the common cold as well as more serious illnesses such as SARS and MERS.

Scientists say there are many questions to be answered about the new virus, including just how easily it spreads and how severe it is.

In a report published Wednesday, Chinese researchers suggested that person-to-person spread among close contacts occurred as early as mid-December.

“Considerable efforts” will be needed to control the spread if this ratio holds up elsewhere, researchers wrote in the report, published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

More than half of the cases in which symptoms began before Jan. 1 were tied to a seafood market, but only 8% of cases after that have been, researchers found. They reported the average incubation period was five days.

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News Network
February 16,2020

New Delhi, Feb 16: Just an hour ahead of the swearing-in ceremony, Arvind Kejriwal invited the people of Delhi again for his oath-taking ceremony at Ramlila Maidan today.

Referring himself as "son of Delhi", the AAP convener today tweeted saying, "Delhiites, your son is going to take oath as Delhi chief minister for the third time. You must come to bless your son".

The AAP national convener will be sworn-in as the Chief Minister of Delhi for the third time in a row.

Arvind Kejriwal is scheduled to take oath along with other ministers at Ramlila Maidan.

On Saturday, Kejriwal, through a tweet, has said that autorickshaw drivers, students, teachers, doctors, labourers, etc will be the "chief guests".

The guest list put out by the AAP includes ''Delhi ke Nirmata''- people who contributed to the development of the city during the last five years.

These include Sumit Nagal, a Delhi government school student and an international Tennis player, Laxman Chaudhry an auto driver, Manu Gulati a teacher and "one of the many architects of Delhi Governance Model", Dalbir Singh a farmer, Ratan Jamshed Batliboi - the architect of the famous Signature Bridge among others.

By winning 62 seats by cashing in on the plank of development, his party nearly repeated its 2015 performance, sweeping the Assembly polls in the face of a high-voltage campaign by the BJP, which had fielded a battery of Union Ministers and Chief Ministers in its electioneering, spearheaded by Home Minister Amit Shah.

The BJP marginally improved its tally, managing just eight seats from its 2015''s tally of three seats. The Congress failed to open its account in the second successive election.

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News Network
January 2,2020

United Nations, Jan 2: Nearly 400,000 babies were born around the world on New Year's Day with India recording the highest number of these births worldwide at 67,385, the UN children's agency said.

An estimated 392,078 babies were born around the world on New Year's Day, according to UNICEF. Of this, an estimated 67,385 babies were born in India, the most globally. China comes in second with 46,299 births.

The beginning of a new year and a new decade is an opportunity to reflect on our hopes and aspirations not only for our future, but the future of those who will come after us,” UNICEF Executive Director Henrietta Fore said.

As the calendar flips each January, we are reminded of all the possibility and potential of each child embarking on her or his life's journey—if they are just given that chance.”

Fiji in the Pacific most likely delivered 2020's first baby, while the US, the last of the New Year's Day. Globally, over half of these births were estimated to have taken place in eight countries - India (67,385), China (46,299), Nigeria (26,039), Pakistan (16,787), Indonesia (13,020), United States of America (10,452), Democratic Republic of Congo (10,247) and Ethiopia (8,493).

Each January, UNICEF celebrates babies born on New Year's Day, an auspicious day for child birth around the world, it said. However, for millions of newborns around the world, the day of their birth is far less auspicious.

In 2018, 2.5 million newborns died in just their first month of life; about a third of them on the first day of life. Among those children, most died from preventable causes such as premature birth, complications during delivery, and infections like sepsis. In addition, more than 2.5 million babies are born dead each year.

UNICEF said over the past three decades, the world has seen remarkable progress in child survival, cutting the number of children worldwide who die before their fifth birthday by more than half. But there has been slower progress for newborns. Babies dying in the first month accounted for 47 per cent of all deaths among children under five in 2018, up from 40 per cent in 1990.

UNICEF's Every Child Alive campaign calls for immediate investment in health workers with the right training, who are equipped with the right medicines to ensure every mother and newborn is cared for by a safe pair of hands to prevent and treat complications during pregnancy, delivery and birth.

Too many mothers and newborns are not being cared for by a trained and equipped midwife or nurse, and the results are devastating,” said Fore. “We can ensure that millions of babies survive their first day and live into this decade and beyond if every one of them is born into a safe pair of hands.”

India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country around 2027. According to UN estimates, India is expected to add nearly 273 million people between 2019 and 2050, while the population of Nigeria is projected to grow by 200 million. Together, these two countries could account for 23 per cent of the global population increase to 2050.

China, with 1.43 billion people in 2019, and India, with 1.37 billion, have long been the two most populous countries of the world, comprising 19 and 18 per cent, respectively, of the global total in 2019. Through the end of the century, India is estimated to remain the world's most populous country with nearly 1.5 billion inhabitants, followed by China with just under 1.1 billion, Nigeria with 733 million, the US with 434 million, and Pakistan with 403 million inhabitants.

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