Dark days ahead for Indian rupee, reveal strategists

Agencies
March 7, 2019

Mar 7: The Indian rupee's weak start to 2019 is an indication of how it will perform over the coming year, strategists in a Reuters poll said, citing uncertainty ahead of a general election in May and a potential trade conflict with the United States.

Last year, the currency tumbled about 10 per cent and hit a record low of 74.485 to the dollar in October, marking its worse performance since 2013, driven by a sell-off in emerging markets and a widening fiscal deficit as oil prices rose.

While the consensus showed the rupee would not breach that record over the next 12 months, the currency was expected to weaken over 1 per cent to 71.28 in 12 months from about 70.50 on Wednesday, according to the poll of 50 currency strategists.

Still, in a general upswing for most currencies against the dollar, the rupee recouped some of its 2018 losses last month.

But the Indian currency, which is down about 1 per cent this year, is forecast to weaken nearly 2 per cent by end-May, suggesting upcoming elections are a clear risk.

"The rupee's weakness has started kicking back in...and will remain in play until the political dust settles," said Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING.

A separate Reuters survey of equity strategists showed a majority win for the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) would be the most favorable outcome for stocks. Similarly, the rupee's stability would be influenced by the status quo being maintained post-election.

"We expect a win for the BJP in May, but it will be very difficult for the BJP to get a substantial majority...which will complicate a further implementation of necessary reforms," said Hugo Erken, a senior economist at Rabobank.

"In the medium-term we expect a gradual depreciation of the INR due to a normalization of inflation rates. In case of a loss for the BJP in May, we expect financial market volatility - the INR could potentially spike to 74, the levels that we saw during the Indian rupee crisis last year."

In addition to concerns about economic growth, which hit its slowest in five-quarters late last year, U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to cut India out of its Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which allows duty-free entry of some Indian exports into the United States, is also likely to weigh on the rupee.

"While the global trade anxiety remains a headwind to the Indian economy and the INR, I wonder if it's now India on the US's radar after China, based on what the latest development of the U.S. ending the GSP may herald," added ING's Sakpal.

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News Network
March 11,2020

Rome, Mar 11: Italy has recorded its deadliest day of the coronavirus crisis despite locking down the entire country, as New York deployed the National Guard to contain a disease that has sown worldwide panic.

The hardest-hit country in Europe said its death toll from the COVID-19 virus had risen Tuesday by a third to 631, with the surging epidemic taking its toll on global sporting, cultural and political events.

While authorities in China, where the outbreak began, have declared it "basically curbed", cases are multiplying around the world, sparking panic buying in shops, and wild swings on financial markets.

China remains the hardest-hit overall with more than 80,000 cases and over 3,000 deaths, out of a global total of 117,339 cases and 4,251 deaths across 107 countries and territories, according to an AFP tally.

The virus is infecting all walks of life, including politics, with US Democratic presidential hopefuls Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden both cancelling campaign rallies and British health minister Nadine Dorries saying she had tested positive.

And amid criticism of the US authorities' response, New York deployed the National Guard for the first time during the crisis to help contain the spread of the disease from an infection-hit suburb.

There have been 173 confirmed cases in New York state, including 108 in Westchester County, home to New Rochelle where the majority of infections have been detected.

"It is a dramatic action, but it is the largest cluster in the country. This is literally a matter of life and death," said state governor Andrew Cuomo.

"People are scared, it's an unusual situation to be in," Miles Goldberg, who runs a New Rochelle bar, told AFP.

"It makes people nervous to be around others, it makes people nervous to get inside into businesses and such," he said.

In an unprecedented move, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has told the 60 million residents of his country they should travel only for the most urgent work or health reasons.

And while squares in Milan and Rome were emptied of their usual bustle and traffic, some residents appeared uncertain if they were even allowed to leave their homes for everyday tasks like shopping.

The virus has battered tourism around the world, as people scrap travel plans, and a restaurant owner in Florence in northern Italy said that the impact on business had been catastrophic.

"We hope that we will see the end of it, because from around 140 covers a day, this afternoon, we've gone down to 20-25," Agostino Ferrara told AFP.

Pope Francis also seemed to muddy the waters, holding a mass in which he urged priests to go out and visit the sick -- something Conte has specifically discouraged.

Sporting events continued to fall victim to the virus as authorities urge people to avoid large gatherings.

Arsenal's game at Manchester City was postponed after players from the London club were put into quarantine, making it the first Premier League fixture to be called off because of the virus.

The virus has sparked doubts about the Olympics due to open in Tokyo on July 24 and the traditional flame lighting ceremony in Greece is set to be held without spectators.

In the United States, organisers rescheduled the two-week Coachella music festival for October.

The virus and the response to the crisis has prompted pandemonium on global markets with volatility not seen since the world financial crisis in 2008.

After suffering its worst session in more than 11 years at the beginning of the week, the Dow Jones Index in New York bounced back significantly, rising five percent on Tuesday.

Politicians around the world have scrambled to put together emergency packages to ease the significant financial hardships the virus is expected to cause for households and businesses.

US President Donald Trump, who is relying on a strong economy to boost his re-election hopes, promised to announce "major" economic measures on Tuesday.

The biggest item on his wish list is a cut in payroll taxes. But even allies in Congress and reportedly some aides in the White House are sceptical, questioning the cost.

Italy prepared Tuesday to let families skip mortgage and some tax payments while Japan unveiled a second emergency package to tackle economic woes stemming from the outbreak, including $15 billion in loan programmes to support small businesses.

Analysts warned of further volatility ahead however.

"It's like winding up a rubber band. The more you wind it, when you let go, the more it pops," said LBBW's Karl Haeling.

"A lot of the uncertainty goes to the root of the virus itself."

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News Network
January 19,2020

Chennai, Jan 19: Amid ongoing nationwide protests against Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Sunday said that as many as 2838 people from Pakistan were given citizenship during the last six years.

"In the last six years, as many as 2838 Pakistani refugees, 914 Afghan refugees, 172 Bangladeshi refugees including Muslims have been given Indian citizenship. From 1964 to 2008, more than 4,00,000 Tamils (from Sri Lanka) have been given Indian citizenship," Sitharaman said at 'Programme on Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019' event here.

She added, "Till 2014, over 566 Muslims from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan were given Indian citizenship. During 2016-18 under Modi government, around 1595 Pakistani migrants and 391 Afghanistani Muslims were given Indian citizenship."

The minister, further, said, "It was also during the same period in 2016, that Adnan Sami was given Indian citizenship, this is an example."    

Sitharaman added that people who came from East Pakistan have been settled at various camps in the country.

"They are still there and it's been 50-60 years now. If you visit these camps, your heart will cry. The situation is the same with Sri Lankan refugees who continue to live in camps. They're barred from getting basic facilities," she said.

Asserting that the government is not snatching away anyone's citizenship, the BJP leader said: "This Citizenship (Amendment) Act is an attempt to provide people with a better life. We are not snatching away anyone's citizenship, we are only providing them that."

"The National Population Register (NPR) will be updated every 10 years and is not involved with the National Register of Citizens (NRC). Some are involved in raising false allegations and triggering people unnecessarily without any base," she added.

Comments

indian
 - 
Monday, 20 Jan 2020

Hello Madam,

What Are you ?? Are you a Finance Minister or External Affairs Minister ??

when someone asked about the economy which well related to your ministry you won't even open your mouth, 

but now you are talking about a matter which is not at all your business...

WellWisher
 - 
Sunday, 19 Jan 2020

What a pefect  figure  given by our short time  finance minister. Hope  she wil feed them from her person income wthout ONION.

Fairman
 - 
Sunday, 19 Jan 2020

Stupid, dont know even what they talk.

 

 

It is not snatching anybody's nationality. You dont have right to do it.

 

 
The subject is not snatching,    the subject is disccimination while giving nationality.

 

 

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Agencies
May 31,2020

New Delhi, May 31: Indian aviation regulator DGCA on Saturday said the suspension of scheduled international commercial passenger flights will continue till midnight on June 30, hours after the Home Ministry announced fresh guidelines pertaining to the countrywide lockdown to contain the coronavirus pandemic.

"It is once again reiterated that foreign airlines shall be suitably informed about the opening of their operations to or from India in due course," the circular issued by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) said.

Domestic passenger flight services resumed in the country from Monday after a hiatus of two months since the lockdown was announced on March 25, when all scheduled commercial passenger flights were suspended in India. International flights continue to remain suspended even now.

The Home Ministry on Saturday said 'Unlock-1' will be initiated in the country from June 8 under which the nationwide lockdown effectuated on March 25 will be relaxed to a great extent, including opening of shopping malls, restaurants and religious places, even as strict restrictions will remain in place till June 30 in the country's worst pandemic-hit areas.

International air travel shall remain suspended, the MHA order said, adding that a decision on when to resume it would be taken after making an assessment of the situation.

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