Dark days ahead for Indian rupee, reveal strategists

Agencies
March 7, 2019

Mar 7: The Indian rupee's weak start to 2019 is an indication of how it will perform over the coming year, strategists in a Reuters poll said, citing uncertainty ahead of a general election in May and a potential trade conflict with the United States.

Last year, the currency tumbled about 10 per cent and hit a record low of 74.485 to the dollar in October, marking its worse performance since 2013, driven by a sell-off in emerging markets and a widening fiscal deficit as oil prices rose.

While the consensus showed the rupee would not breach that record over the next 12 months, the currency was expected to weaken over 1 per cent to 71.28 in 12 months from about 70.50 on Wednesday, according to the poll of 50 currency strategists.

Still, in a general upswing for most currencies against the dollar, the rupee recouped some of its 2018 losses last month.

But the Indian currency, which is down about 1 per cent this year, is forecast to weaken nearly 2 per cent by end-May, suggesting upcoming elections are a clear risk.

"The rupee's weakness has started kicking back in...and will remain in play until the political dust settles," said Prakash Sakpal, Asia economist at ING.

A separate Reuters survey of equity strategists showed a majority win for the ruling Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) would be the most favorable outcome for stocks. Similarly, the rupee's stability would be influenced by the status quo being maintained post-election.

"We expect a win for the BJP in May, but it will be very difficult for the BJP to get a substantial majority...which will complicate a further implementation of necessary reforms," said Hugo Erken, a senior economist at Rabobank.

"In the medium-term we expect a gradual depreciation of the INR due to a normalization of inflation rates. In case of a loss for the BJP in May, we expect financial market volatility - the INR could potentially spike to 74, the levels that we saw during the Indian rupee crisis last year."

In addition to concerns about economic growth, which hit its slowest in five-quarters late last year, U.S. President Donald Trump's plan to cut India out of its Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which allows duty-free entry of some Indian exports into the United States, is also likely to weigh on the rupee.

"While the global trade anxiety remains a headwind to the Indian economy and the INR, I wonder if it's now India on the US's radar after China, based on what the latest development of the U.S. ending the GSP may herald," added ING's Sakpal.

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News Network
July 20,2020

New Delhi, July 20: India's retail trade has suffered a business loss of about Rs 15.5 lakh crore in past 100 days due to the COVID-19 lockdown, traders' body CAIT said on Sunday. 

In a statement, the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) said traders across the country are depressed because of minimal of the consumers, considerable absence of employees, facing financial crunch and yet have to meet several financial obligations.

"No support policy from the central or state governments is yet another crucial factor which is haunting the traders," CAIT claimed. 

CAIT Secretary General Praveen Khandelwal said the domestic trade is passing through its worst period in the current century which reflects that if immediate steps are not taken about 20 per cent of the shops in India will have to close down their shutters.

The traders’ body has also urged the government to award a substantial package to traders to ensure their survival. Their demands include: Relaxation in payment of taxes, extension in repayment of bank loans and EMIs without any further interest or penalty as well as measures that would provide money directly in the hands of the traders.

In April, the losses stood at about Rs. 5 lakh crore whereas in May it was estimated to be about Rs. 4.5 lakh crore, followed by Rs. 4 lakh crore in June. Losses stood at about 2.5 lakh crore in the first fortnight of July offering a grim snapshot of the effect of the pandemic on consumer spending. 

“Even as the lockdown was relaxed, store footfall was only 10 per cent. Most of these traders do not have deep pockets to sustain this severe economic catastrophe and on the other hand have several financial obligations to meet. At this crucial time, handholding of these traders is all the more much required,” Khandelwal said.

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News Network
January 28,2020

Panaji, Jan 28: Bureaucrat-turned-activist Kannan Gopinathan on Tuesday said even some "RSS people" are convinced the Citizenship Amendment Act is a bad law but are keeping quiet as the NDA government at the Centre is their own baby.

Speaking in Panaji, he further said the Narendra Modi government was behaving like a "drunken teenager" which needs to be questioned or else it will end up destroying homes.

"I was detained twice in UP, kept the whole day, because they (government) do not want the questioning (of CAA). I have met so many RSS people, they also understand this...if you have this conversation, they also understand the government has done something (wrong) and they have been asked to support it," he claimed.

He said the line of thought among these RSS people (he met) was "just support it (CAA)" as they don't want an altercation because the "government is their baby".

"He (government) is not a normal baby, he is a drunken teenager. He should be asked questions because when he starts destroying, he does not destroy somebody else's home but your own home," Gopinathan said.

He also hit out at those who have been claiming that the people protesting against the CAA are unaware about the law and have not even read it.

Gopinathan claimed if one had asked supportive MPs about the CAA on the day it was passed in Parliament, several of them would not have been able to speak on it as "they would not have known what was passed, because they were not given time (to go through the bill)".

He said, earlier, such legislation was passed after several rounds of consultation but "now, by night, it becomes an Act", adding (now) "everything is a surgical strike".

Gopinathan, in a possible reference to the National Register of Citizens exercise carried out in Assam, also claimed "thousands of people are in detention centres".

"It is your fundamental right to peacefully assemble without arms, Article 19 (1) (D) (of the Constitution)," he said at a function organised by a group opposed to CAA.

Gopinathan said people "always felt they were in a democracy" because they never tried to fly, when in reality "you are in a cage".

"The moment you want to fly you realise you are in a cage," he said, adding that "we have to question, we have to ask ourselves where are we going".

"When you don't allow a person to speak against an incorrect legislation, then what is democracy? What is freedom of expression?" Gopinathan questioned.

Gopinathan, a 2012 batch AGMUT cadre Indian Administrative Service officer, was the secretary, Power Department of the Union Territories of Daman and Diu, and Dadra and Nagar Haveli when he resigned on August 21 last year.

At the time, he had claimed the people of Jammu and Kashmir were being denied freedom of expression following abrogation of Article 370 by the Centre.

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coastaldigest.com news network
May 6,2020

New Delhi, May 6: The government on Wednesday said no data or security breach has been identified in Aarogya Setu after an ethical hacker raised concerns about a potential security issue in the app.

The app is the government's mobile application for contact tracing and disseminating medical advisories to users in order to contain the spread of coronavirus.

On Tuesday, a French hacker and cyber security expert Elliot Alderson had claimed that "a security issue has been found" in the app and that "privacy of 90 million Indians is at stake".

Dismissing the claims, the government said "no personal information of any user has been proven to be at risk by this ethical hacker".

"We are continuously testing and upgrading our systems. Team Aarogya Setu assures everyone that no data or security breach has been identified," the government said through the app’s Twitter handle.

The tweet gave point-by-point clarification on the red flags raised by the hacker.

"We discussed with the hacker and were made aware of the following... the app fetches user location on a few occasions," it said, but added that this was by design and is clearly detailed in the privacy policy.

The app fetches users’ location and stores on the server in a secure, encrypted, anonymised manner - at the time of registration, at the time of self assessment, when users submit their contact tracing data voluntary through the app or when it fetches the contact tracing data of users after they have turned COVID-19 positive, it said.

On another issue that users can get COVID-19 stats displayed on the home screen by changing the radius and latitude-longitude using a script, Aarogya Setu said that all this information is already public for all locations and hence does not compromise on any personal or sensitive data.

"We thank the ethical hacker on engaging with us. We encourage any users who identify a vulnerability to inform us immediately...," it said.

Responding to Aarogya Setu's clarification, Alderson tweeted, "I will come back to you tomorrow".

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