Decoding resounding BJP victory

[email protected] (A K Verma)
March 12, 2017

Mar 12: The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) registered a landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Uttarakhand, capturing significant space in Manipur where it had no presence while Goa remains close. But, as expected, the Akali Dal-BJP alliance lost Punjab where it had already served two terms and faced anti-incumbency owing to drug menace, arms traffic and arbitrary police and general administration.

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In UP, the BJP's resounding win of 325 seats with 41% votes with allies, Apna Dal (AD) and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), came as a surprise to all. It far surpassed the party's Mission-265 target and was really Herculean as compared to 2012 Assembly polls when it secured 47 seats and 15% votes. Thus, it won 278 more seats and 26% more votes as compared to 2012. How could the BJP do this?

Constituency transformation: The BJP fundamentally transformed its constituency. The party had been touted as upper caste-urban-middle class-traders party, a constituency that comprises of just 19-20% of electorate. It tried to go for 'sabka saath, sabka vikas,' a catchphrase for inclusive politics. The party included more backward, most backward and Ati-Dalit sections hitherto excluded from party constituency.

According to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) data, a massive 32% more backwards, 37% most-backwards and 21% Ati-Dalits have shifted to the BJP since 2012. There appeared to be a democratic upsurge in UP that gave a massive win to the BJP.

Rural connect: Prime Minister Narendra Modi established a rapport with the rural people. Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi used to mock him as heading a 'suit-boot ki sarkaar' and playing to the rich. But Modi bounced back with a massive rural push as he went for neem-coating of urea making it unfit for industrial use, introduced soil health card, provided farmers security by implementing the Fasal Bima Yojna (crop insurance), launched village toilets scheme and provided free LPG to village women under the Ujjwala scheme.

Further, during campaign speeches, he assured villagers that he would personally guarantee that the new BJP government in UP waived agricultural loans of small and marginal farmers in its first meeting and purchase their agricultural produce at minimum support price. What else could the farmers desire? That is the reason why 32% rural people voted BJP as against 14% in 2012.

Robust social engineering: To capture the largest social segment in UP — the OBCs — the BJP roped them into the leadership structure and offered them a large number of tickets in this Assembly polls. The non-Yadav OBCs in UP, called more-backwards and most-backwards, were not aligned to any particular party.

The BJP appointed Keshav Prasad Maurya from the most-backward as its state president and Anupriya Patel of Apna Dal, representing more-backwards, in the Modi cabinet. It also gave them 50% share in party tickets. This marginalised community was excited at getting a political space greater than their share in population. That positively impacted the BJP's victory in all constituencies.

Many failed to pay attention to the two marginal parties with which the BJP had alliance in UP – AD and SBSP — and calculate their electoral impact. Because of AD alliance, more-backwards, especially the Kurmis, massively shifted to the BJP. The SBSP is a party of Rajbhars, the people of tribal origin and wrongly placed in the most-backward category. They had polled five lakh votes in the contested constituencies in 2012 Assembly polls and their average comes to about 9,000 votes per contested constituency. That also made substantial difference to the BJP as add-on votes.

Policy initiatives: The BJP has also taken several policy initiatives in the domain of social security, economy and foreign policy. Modi's growing international stature, tough and fearless stand against Pakistan, and several bilateral and multilateral international collaborations beneficial for the country have not gone unnoticed by the people. His several schemes like Atal Pension Yojna, Jan Dhan Yojna, direct transfer of subsidy to the bank accounts of poor, Pradhaan Mantri Grameen Awas Yojna etc have greatly excited the people.

He also initiated schemes to tackle unemployment among youth through youth entrepreneurship in the form of Make in India, startup schemes, skill development etc. The youth of UP was unhappy because of the casteism in appointments and greatly expected the BJP government to undo that aberration.

Mayawati's Muslim outreach: There was much hype about BSP supremo Mayawati's Dalit-Muslim social engineering replacing her earlier Dalit-Brahmin social engineering of the 2007 fame. But, the BSP's poor performance demonstrates its complete failure. Mayawati did not understand that such social coalitions are not mechanical processes that you terminate at will and go for another. These experiments take time and should be not only a matter of political convenience but must also reflect in the coming together of the two communities at grassroots.

Secondly, Maya¬wati lost her upper caste votes after the infamous Dayashankar Singh (BJP) episode (he called Mayawati a prostitute), following which Naseemuddin (BSP) made vulgar remarks about the wife and daughter of Dayashankar. It not only pushed Thakurs but the entire upper caste, including Brahmins, away from Mayawati and that is clearly reflected in the CSDS data. Thirdly, Maya¬wati also lost Dalit votes, especially non-Jatavs Pasi, Valmiki, Kori, Khatik etc as she had been unfair to them.

SP-Cong alliance: The SP-Congress alliance was a disaster for both parties. It was formed on the premise of transferability of votes to each other on the Bihar model but did not materialise on ground. It may have been just a political experiment for a Congress revival as the party had no stakes in UP. For Akhilesh, however, it turned out to be a very unwise decision because he might have managed near majority on his own owing to his clean and development-centric image.

The alliance was suicidal for the Congress because it took a big risk not worthy of a national party. One, by ceding 298 seats to the SP, it literally offered its Muslim vote share on a platter in those constituencies, a mistake the party committed in 1996 when it went for an alliance with the BSP and offered its Dalit votes to the party. Secondly, the Congress did not think big for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This Assembly poll was a chance to galvanise its party apparatus and cadre for the coming LS poll. By not contesting in 298 constituencies, the Congress' organisational apparatus might disintegrate beyond repair.

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Agencies
February 23,2020

Google has indexed invite links to private WhatsApp group chats, meaning anyone can join various private chat groups (including several porn-sharing groups) with a simple search.

According to a report in Motherboard, invitations to WhatsApp group chats were being indexed by Google.

The team found private groups using specific Google searches and even joined a group intended for NGOs accredited by the UN and had access to all the participants and their phone numbers.

Journalist Jordan Wildon said on Twitter that he discovered that WhatsApp's "Invite to Group Link" feature lets Google index groups, making them available across the internet since the links are being shared outside of WhatsApp's secure private messaging service.

"Your WhatsApp groups may not be as secure as you think they are," Wildon tweeted on Friday, adding that using particular Google searches, people can discover links to the chats.

According to app reverse-engineer Jane Wong, Google has around 470,000 results for a simple search of "chat.whatsapp.com", part of the URL that makes up invites to WhatsApp groups.

WhatsApp spokesperson Alison Bonny said: "Like all content that is shared in searchable public channels, invite links that are posted publicly on the internet can be found by other WhatsApp users."

"The links that users wish to share privately with people they know and trust should not be posted on a publicly accessible website," Bonny told The Verge.

Danny Sullivan, Google's public search liaison, tweeted: "Search engines like Google & others list pages from the open web. That's what's happening here. It's no different than any case where a site allows URLs to be publicly listed. We do offer tools allowing sites to block content being listed in our results."

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Agencies
March 12,2020

Thiruvananthapuram, Mar 12: In the wake of COVID-19 outbreak, Internet service providers in Kerala have agreed to step up the network capacity by 30 to 40 per cent of the present capacity to meet the demand, especially in view of the spurt in work-at-home mode.

"The decision was made at a meeting of representatives of various telecom service providers in Kerala circle and officials of the Telecommunication Department convened by the Secretary, Electronics and IT, following a direction by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan to look into the issue," said a press release by the IT Department.

The decision will be beneficial for those working in IT institutions. The government has come out with a set of suggestions to avoid social gatherings at public places in view of coronavirus spread. Telecom service providers have assured the government that they are well equipped to face the current situation.

The major part of Internet consumption in Kerala is made available through local servers. Moreover, global Internet traffic is very low as compared to the overall consumption. So, increasing the capacity won't be difficult, service providers informed.

"Complaints regarding the low availability of the Internet due to the spurt in consumption of the Internet can be made to the service providers to their complaint redressal number or inform state government call centre (155300). But complaints regarding the insufficiency in the current network infrastructure should be strictly avoided," said the release.

The IT Department will also demand daily reports from various telecom service providers. By analysing these reports, steps for remedies will be taken after bringing the sudden increase in consumption to the service providers.

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News Network
June 18,2020

Beijing, Jun 18:  Besides washing hands and wearing masks, it is also important to close the toilet lid before flushing to contain the spread of COVID-19, as per a new study.

According to a new study cited by The Washington Post, scientists who simulated toilet water and airflows, have found that flushing a toilet can generate a plume of virus-containing aerosol particles that is widespread and can linger in the air long enough to be inhaled by others. The novel coronavirus has been found in the faeces of COVID-19 patients, but it remains unknown whether such clouds could contain enough virus to infect a person.

"Flushing will lift the virus up from the toilet bowl," co-author Ji-Xiang Wang, who researches fluids at Yangzhou University in Yangzhou, China, said in an email. Wang stressed that bathroom users "need to close the lid first and then trigger the flushing process" and wash hands properly if the closure is not possible. As one flushes the toilet with the lids open, bits of faecal matter swish around so violently that they can be propelled into the air, become aerosolised and then settle on the surroundings.

Experts call it the "toilet plume".Age-old studies have been made to understand the potential for airborne transmission of infectious disease via sewage, and the toilet plume's role. Scientists who have seeded toilet bowls with bacteria and viruses have found contamination of seats, flush handles, bathroom floors and nearby surfaces. This is one reason we are told to wash our hands after visiting the toilet. Public bathrooms are well known to contribute to the spread of viruses that transmit via ingestion, such as the noroviruses that haunt cruise ships. However, their role in the transmission of respiratory viruses has not been established, said Charles P Gerba, a microbiologist at the University of Arizona."The risk is not zero, but how great a risk it is, we do not know. The big unknown is how much virus is infectious in the toilet when you flush it ... and how much virus does it take to cause an infection," said Gerba, who has studied the intersection of toilets and infectious disease for 45 years.

A study published in March in the journal Gastroenterology found significant amounts of coronavirus in the stool of patients and determined that viral RNA lasted in faeces even after the virus cleared from the patients` respiratory tracts. While another study in the journal Lancet found coronavirus in faeces up to a month after the illness had passed.

Scientists around the world are now studying sewage to track the spread of the virus. According to the researchers, the presence of the virus in excrement and the gastrointestinal tract raises the prospect of transmission via toilets, because many COVID-19 patients experience diarrhoea or vomiting.

A study of air samples in two hospitals in Wuhan, China found that although coronavirus aerosols in isolation wards and ventilated patient rooms were very low, "it was higher in the toilet areas used by the patients".The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says it remains "unclear whether the virus found in faeces may be capable of causing COVID-19," and "there has not been any confirmed report of the virus spreading from faeces to a person".For now, the CDC characterises the risk as low based on observations from previous outbreaks of other coronaviruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Wang decided to use computer models to simulate toilet plumes while isolating at home, as per Chinese government orders and thinking about how a fluids researcher "could contribute to the global fight against the virus".

Published in the journal Physics of Fluids, the study found that flushing of both single-inlet toilets, which push water into the bowl from one port, and annular-inlet toilets, which pour water into the bowl from the rim's surrounding edge with even greater energy, results in "massive upward transport of virus".

Particles can reach heights of more than three feet and float in the air for more than a minute, it found. The paper recommends not just lid-closing and hand-washing, it urges manufacturers to produce toilets that close and self-clean automatically. It also suggests that toilet-users should wipe down the seat. Gerba, however, said seats should not be a major concern.

Research has found that public and household toilet seats are typically the cleanest surfaces in restrooms, he said, probably because so many people already wipe them off before using them. Also, he said of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, "I don't think it's butt-borne, so I don`t think you have to worry."Gerba, who has been studying coronavirus transmission for two decades to investigate the role of a toilet flushing in a SARS outbreak stresses "flush and run" when using a public toilet without a lid. Gerba also said that people should wash hands well post-flushing and use hand sanitiser after leaving the restroom. "Choose well-ventilated bathrooms if possible and do not hang around the restroom in any case," added Gerba.

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