Decoding resounding BJP victory

[email protected] (A K Verma)
March 12, 2017

Mar 12: The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) registered a landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Uttarakhand, capturing significant space in Manipur where it had no presence while Goa remains close. But, as expected, the Akali Dal-BJP alliance lost Punjab where it had already served two terms and faced anti-incumbency owing to drug menace, arms traffic and arbitrary police and general administration.

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In UP, the BJP's resounding win of 325 seats with 41% votes with allies, Apna Dal (AD) and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), came as a surprise to all. It far surpassed the party's Mission-265 target and was really Herculean as compared to 2012 Assembly polls when it secured 47 seats and 15% votes. Thus, it won 278 more seats and 26% more votes as compared to 2012. How could the BJP do this?

Constituency transformation: The BJP fundamentally transformed its constituency. The party had been touted as upper caste-urban-middle class-traders party, a constituency that comprises of just 19-20% of electorate. It tried to go for 'sabka saath, sabka vikas,' a catchphrase for inclusive politics. The party included more backward, most backward and Ati-Dalit sections hitherto excluded from party constituency.

According to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) data, a massive 32% more backwards, 37% most-backwards and 21% Ati-Dalits have shifted to the BJP since 2012. There appeared to be a democratic upsurge in UP that gave a massive win to the BJP.

Rural connect: Prime Minister Narendra Modi established a rapport with the rural people. Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi used to mock him as heading a 'suit-boot ki sarkaar' and playing to the rich. But Modi bounced back with a massive rural push as he went for neem-coating of urea making it unfit for industrial use, introduced soil health card, provided farmers security by implementing the Fasal Bima Yojna (crop insurance), launched village toilets scheme and provided free LPG to village women under the Ujjwala scheme.

Further, during campaign speeches, he assured villagers that he would personally guarantee that the new BJP government in UP waived agricultural loans of small and marginal farmers in its first meeting and purchase their agricultural produce at minimum support price. What else could the farmers desire? That is the reason why 32% rural people voted BJP as against 14% in 2012.

Robust social engineering: To capture the largest social segment in UP — the OBCs — the BJP roped them into the leadership structure and offered them a large number of tickets in this Assembly polls. The non-Yadav OBCs in UP, called more-backwards and most-backwards, were not aligned to any particular party.

The BJP appointed Keshav Prasad Maurya from the most-backward as its state president and Anupriya Patel of Apna Dal, representing more-backwards, in the Modi cabinet. It also gave them 50% share in party tickets. This marginalised community was excited at getting a political space greater than their share in population. That positively impacted the BJP's victory in all constituencies.

Many failed to pay attention to the two marginal parties with which the BJP had alliance in UP – AD and SBSP — and calculate their electoral impact. Because of AD alliance, more-backwards, especially the Kurmis, massively shifted to the BJP. The SBSP is a party of Rajbhars, the people of tribal origin and wrongly placed in the most-backward category. They had polled five lakh votes in the contested constituencies in 2012 Assembly polls and their average comes to about 9,000 votes per contested constituency. That also made substantial difference to the BJP as add-on votes.

Policy initiatives: The BJP has also taken several policy initiatives in the domain of social security, economy and foreign policy. Modi's growing international stature, tough and fearless stand against Pakistan, and several bilateral and multilateral international collaborations beneficial for the country have not gone unnoticed by the people. His several schemes like Atal Pension Yojna, Jan Dhan Yojna, direct transfer of subsidy to the bank accounts of poor, Pradhaan Mantri Grameen Awas Yojna etc have greatly excited the people.

He also initiated schemes to tackle unemployment among youth through youth entrepreneurship in the form of Make in India, startup schemes, skill development etc. The youth of UP was unhappy because of the casteism in appointments and greatly expected the BJP government to undo that aberration.

Mayawati's Muslim outreach: There was much hype about BSP supremo Mayawati's Dalit-Muslim social engineering replacing her earlier Dalit-Brahmin social engineering of the 2007 fame. But, the BSP's poor performance demonstrates its complete failure. Mayawati did not understand that such social coalitions are not mechanical processes that you terminate at will and go for another. These experiments take time and should be not only a matter of political convenience but must also reflect in the coming together of the two communities at grassroots.

Secondly, Maya¬wati lost her upper caste votes after the infamous Dayashankar Singh (BJP) episode (he called Mayawati a prostitute), following which Naseemuddin (BSP) made vulgar remarks about the wife and daughter of Dayashankar. It not only pushed Thakurs but the entire upper caste, including Brahmins, away from Mayawati and that is clearly reflected in the CSDS data. Thirdly, Maya¬wati also lost Dalit votes, especially non-Jatavs Pasi, Valmiki, Kori, Khatik etc as she had been unfair to them.

SP-Cong alliance: The SP-Congress alliance was a disaster for both parties. It was formed on the premise of transferability of votes to each other on the Bihar model but did not materialise on ground. It may have been just a political experiment for a Congress revival as the party had no stakes in UP. For Akhilesh, however, it turned out to be a very unwise decision because he might have managed near majority on his own owing to his clean and development-centric image.

The alliance was suicidal for the Congress because it took a big risk not worthy of a national party. One, by ceding 298 seats to the SP, it literally offered its Muslim vote share on a platter in those constituencies, a mistake the party committed in 1996 when it went for an alliance with the BSP and offered its Dalit votes to the party. Secondly, the Congress did not think big for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This Assembly poll was a chance to galvanise its party apparatus and cadre for the coming LS poll. By not contesting in 298 constituencies, the Congress' organisational apparatus might disintegrate beyond repair.

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Agencies
June 16,2020

Paris, Jun 16: Increasing numbers of readers are paying for online news around the world even if the level of trust in the media, in general, remains very low, according to a report published Tuesday.

Around 20 percent of Americans questioned said they subscribed to an online news provider (up to four points over the previous year) and 42 percent of Norwegians (up eight points), along with 13 percent of the Dutch (up to three points), compared with 10 percent in France and Germany.

But between a third and a half of all news subscriptions go to just a few major media organisations, such as the New York Times, according to the annual Digital News Report by the Reuters Institute.

Some readers, however, are also beginning to take out more than one subscription, paying for a local or specialist title in addition to a national news source, the study's authors said.

But a large proportion of internet users say nothing could convince them to pay for online news, around 40 percent in the United States and 50 percent in Britain.

YouGov conducted the online surveys of 40 countries for the Reuters Institute in January, with 2,000 respondents in each.

Further surveys were carried out in six countries in April to analyse the initial effects of COVID-19.

The health crisis brought a revival of interest in television news -- with the audience rising five percent on average -- establishing itself as the main source of information along with online media.

Conversely, newspaper circulation was hard-hit by coronavirus lockdown measures.

The survey found trust in the news had fallen to its lowest level since the first report in 2012, with just 38 percent saying they trusted most news most of the time.

However, confidence in the news media varied considerably by country, ranging from 56 percent in Finland and Portugal to 23 percent in France and 21 percent in South Korea.

In Hong Kong, which has been hit by months of sometimes violent street protests against an extradition law, trust in the news fell 16 points to 30 percent over the year.

Chile, which has had regular demonstrations against inequality, saw trust in the media fall 15 percent while in Britain, where society has been polarised by issues such as Brexit, it was down 12 points.

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Agencies
February 23,2020

Google has indexed invite links to private WhatsApp group chats, meaning anyone can join various private chat groups (including several porn-sharing groups) with a simple search.

According to a report in Motherboard, invitations to WhatsApp group chats were being indexed by Google.

The team found private groups using specific Google searches and even joined a group intended for NGOs accredited by the UN and had access to all the participants and their phone numbers.

Journalist Jordan Wildon said on Twitter that he discovered that WhatsApp's "Invite to Group Link" feature lets Google index groups, making them available across the internet since the links are being shared outside of WhatsApp's secure private messaging service.

"Your WhatsApp groups may not be as secure as you think they are," Wildon tweeted on Friday, adding that using particular Google searches, people can discover links to the chats.

According to app reverse-engineer Jane Wong, Google has around 470,000 results for a simple search of "chat.whatsapp.com", part of the URL that makes up invites to WhatsApp groups.

WhatsApp spokesperson Alison Bonny said: "Like all content that is shared in searchable public channels, invite links that are posted publicly on the internet can be found by other WhatsApp users."

"The links that users wish to share privately with people they know and trust should not be posted on a publicly accessible website," Bonny told The Verge.

Danny Sullivan, Google's public search liaison, tweeted: "Search engines like Google & others list pages from the open web. That's what's happening here. It's no different than any case where a site allows URLs to be publicly listed. We do offer tools allowing sites to block content being listed in our results."

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Agencies
July 15,2020

New Delhi, Jul 15: The employees union of state-run telecom operator BSNL will stage protests across the country on Thursday on a host of issues including the cancellation of its 4G tender and non-payment of salaries.

All major unions are organising ‘lunch-hour black-flag' demonstrations throughout the country under the banner of All Unions and Association of BSNL (AUAB), said a statement by AUAB. These demonstrations will be organised, by maintaining social distancing and by taking other precautions, like wearing of masks. The BSNL employees will also wear black-badges the whole day on July 16.

The employees body would demand that BSNL should immediately be allowed to roll out its 4G services and the tender should be issued immediately. Further, they want that in the matter of procuring new equipment and upgradation, there should not be any discrimination between BSNL and other private telecom service providers.

Recently, the Centre cancelled the 4G upgradation tender for BSNL as it had decided to come up with fresh specifications for the upgrade process, in a move to keep Chinese technology companies at bay as the border tussle escalated with the northern neighbour.

The Department of Telecommunications (DoT) would issue a fresh tender for the same, and people in the know said that Chinese companies may not be allowed to participate.

"The agitational programme is being organised to express the deep anguish and resentment of the employees against cancellation of BSNL's 4G tender, cancellation of BSNL's proposal for upgradation of its 49,300 BTSs to 4G, abnormal delay in issuing ‘Add on Order' for 4G equipments, inordinate delay in the implementation of BSNL's Revival Package and against the non-settlement of the burning problems of the employees," said the statement.

The umbrella body of BSNL's employees' unions noted that rolling out of 4G services is the backbone for the revival of this telecom PSU, but the recent cancellation of the tender floated by BSNL for procuring 4G equipment at a cost of Rs 9,300 crore, has brought the company back to square one.

It said that BSNL is already having 49,300 base transceiver stations (BTS), which are 4G compatible and through minor upgradation, all these equipment can be converted into 4G BTSs with an investment of about Rs 1,500 crore.

In addition to this, BSNL could have added another 15,000 BTSs, by placing an Add on Order to the existing mobile tender, it added.

Noting that in October 2019, the PSU could have rolled out pan-India 4G services, AUAB said: "Being the sole owner of the company, the Government of India also cannot shirk its responsibility in this matter."

"Adding insult to injury, the tender floated by BSNL to procure 4G equipment, has been cancelled by the government, based on a complaint from the Telecom Equipments and Services Promotional Council (TEPC)," it said.

AUAB said that BSNL is already lagging four years behind the private operators, in terms of 4G and the cancellation of the tender is going to inordinately delay the company's 4G launch.

Saying that TEPC's contention has been to bar foreign companies from participating in BSNL's tender, AUAB statement pointed out that when private operators are procuring equipment from multinationals, "why BSNL alone should be compelled to procure 4G equipments from domestic vendors, whose 4G technology is not tested or proven so far."

It alleged a conspiracy to destabilise BSNL by disrupting its rolling out of 4G services.

AUAB further said that even after the lapse of nine months, the implementation of the much publicised BSNL's Revival Package is moving at a snail's pace.

"Except the swift retrenchment of 79,000 BSNL employees under VRS, all other assurances given in BSNL's Revival Package have been put in cold storage."

The management should ensure that the salary payment of the employees is made on the last working day of every month. Deductions made from employees' salary, on account of "society dues", should immediately be remitted, it said.

Regarding the monetisation of the company's assets under the revival package, the organisation said that the land asset should not be handed over to corporates, at "throwaway" prices.

"These lands should be sold in a transparent manner and at the prevailing market rates. They should not be sold at book value or at circle rates. The AUAB will strictly monitor these dealings," it said.

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