Decoding resounding BJP victory

[email protected] (A K Verma)
March 12, 2017

Mar 12: The Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) registered a landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Uttarakhand, capturing significant space in Manipur where it had no presence while Goa remains close. But, as expected, the Akali Dal-BJP alliance lost Punjab where it had already served two terms and faced anti-incumbency owing to drug menace, arms traffic and arbitrary police and general administration.

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In UP, the BJP's resounding win of 325 seats with 41% votes with allies, Apna Dal (AD) and Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), came as a surprise to all. It far surpassed the party's Mission-265 target and was really Herculean as compared to 2012 Assembly polls when it secured 47 seats and 15% votes. Thus, it won 278 more seats and 26% more votes as compared to 2012. How could the BJP do this?

Constituency transformation: The BJP fundamentally transformed its constituency. The party had been touted as upper caste-urban-middle class-traders party, a constituency that comprises of just 19-20% of electorate. It tried to go for 'sabka saath, sabka vikas,' a catchphrase for inclusive politics. The party included more backward, most backward and Ati-Dalit sections hitherto excluded from party constituency.

According to the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) data, a massive 32% more backwards, 37% most-backwards and 21% Ati-Dalits have shifted to the BJP since 2012. There appeared to be a democratic upsurge in UP that gave a massive win to the BJP.

Rural connect: Prime Minister Narendra Modi established a rapport with the rural people. Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi used to mock him as heading a 'suit-boot ki sarkaar' and playing to the rich. But Modi bounced back with a massive rural push as he went for neem-coating of urea making it unfit for industrial use, introduced soil health card, provided farmers security by implementing the Fasal Bima Yojna (crop insurance), launched village toilets scheme and provided free LPG to village women under the Ujjwala scheme.

Further, during campaign speeches, he assured villagers that he would personally guarantee that the new BJP government in UP waived agricultural loans of small and marginal farmers in its first meeting and purchase their agricultural produce at minimum support price. What else could the farmers desire? That is the reason why 32% rural people voted BJP as against 14% in 2012.

Robust social engineering: To capture the largest social segment in UP — the OBCs — the BJP roped them into the leadership structure and offered them a large number of tickets in this Assembly polls. The non-Yadav OBCs in UP, called more-backwards and most-backwards, were not aligned to any particular party.

The BJP appointed Keshav Prasad Maurya from the most-backward as its state president and Anupriya Patel of Apna Dal, representing more-backwards, in the Modi cabinet. It also gave them 50% share in party tickets. This marginalised community was excited at getting a political space greater than their share in population. That positively impacted the BJP's victory in all constituencies.

Many failed to pay attention to the two marginal parties with which the BJP had alliance in UP – AD and SBSP — and calculate their electoral impact. Because of AD alliance, more-backwards, especially the Kurmis, massively shifted to the BJP. The SBSP is a party of Rajbhars, the people of tribal origin and wrongly placed in the most-backward category. They had polled five lakh votes in the contested constituencies in 2012 Assembly polls and their average comes to about 9,000 votes per contested constituency. That also made substantial difference to the BJP as add-on votes.

Policy initiatives: The BJP has also taken several policy initiatives in the domain of social security, economy and foreign policy. Modi's growing international stature, tough and fearless stand against Pakistan, and several bilateral and multilateral international collaborations beneficial for the country have not gone unnoticed by the people. His several schemes like Atal Pension Yojna, Jan Dhan Yojna, direct transfer of subsidy to the bank accounts of poor, Pradhaan Mantri Grameen Awas Yojna etc have greatly excited the people.

He also initiated schemes to tackle unemployment among youth through youth entrepreneurship in the form of Make in India, startup schemes, skill development etc. The youth of UP was unhappy because of the casteism in appointments and greatly expected the BJP government to undo that aberration.

Mayawati's Muslim outreach: There was much hype about BSP supremo Mayawati's Dalit-Muslim social engineering replacing her earlier Dalit-Brahmin social engineering of the 2007 fame. But, the BSP's poor performance demonstrates its complete failure. Mayawati did not understand that such social coalitions are not mechanical processes that you terminate at will and go for another. These experiments take time and should be not only a matter of political convenience but must also reflect in the coming together of the two communities at grassroots.

Secondly, Maya¬wati lost her upper caste votes after the infamous Dayashankar Singh (BJP) episode (he called Mayawati a prostitute), following which Naseemuddin (BSP) made vulgar remarks about the wife and daughter of Dayashankar. It not only pushed Thakurs but the entire upper caste, including Brahmins, away from Mayawati and that is clearly reflected in the CSDS data. Thirdly, Maya¬wati also lost Dalit votes, especially non-Jatavs Pasi, Valmiki, Kori, Khatik etc as she had been unfair to them.

SP-Cong alliance: The SP-Congress alliance was a disaster for both parties. It was formed on the premise of transferability of votes to each other on the Bihar model but did not materialise on ground. It may have been just a political experiment for a Congress revival as the party had no stakes in UP. For Akhilesh, however, it turned out to be a very unwise decision because he might have managed near majority on his own owing to his clean and development-centric image.

The alliance was suicidal for the Congress because it took a big risk not worthy of a national party. One, by ceding 298 seats to the SP, it literally offered its Muslim vote share on a platter in those constituencies, a mistake the party committed in 1996 when it went for an alliance with the BSP and offered its Dalit votes to the party. Secondly, the Congress did not think big for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This Assembly poll was a chance to galvanise its party apparatus and cadre for the coming LS poll. By not contesting in 298 constituencies, the Congress' organisational apparatus might disintegrate beyond repair.

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Agencies
July 6,2020

The Covid-19 pandemic has made an unprecedented impact on the Indian businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and startups. According to a joint survey by FICCI and Indian Angel Network (IAN), the pandemic has hit the businesses of around 70% startups.

With uncertainty in the business environment and an unexpected shift in priorities of the government as well as corporates, many startups are struggling to survive, it says.

In a nationwide survey on the 'Impact of Covid-19 on Indian Startups' involving 250 startups, 70% participants said their businesses had been impacted by Covid-19 and around 12% had shut operations.

The survey shows only 22% startups have cash reserves to meet the fixed cost expenses over the next 3-6 months, and 68% are reducing operational and administrative expenses.

Around 30% of the companies said they would retrench employees if the lockdown was extended too long. The 43% startups have already started 20-40% salary cuts over April-June.

Over 33% startups said investors had put the investment decision on hold and 10% said the deals had been scrapped. Only 8% startups had received funds as per the deals signed before Covid-19 outbreak, the survey revealed.

The reduced funding has forced startups to put a hold on business development and manufacturing activities, which has resulted in loss of projected orders.

The survey highlights the need of an urgent relief package for startups, including possible purchase orders from the government, tax relief and swifter tax refunds, and immediate fiscal support measures, including grants, soft loans and payroll grants.

Besides 250 startups, 61 incubators and investors also participated in the survey.

While 96% of investors accepted that their investments in startups had been impacted by Covid-19, 92% said their investments in startups would continue to be low over the next six months.

Around 59% investors said they would prefer to work with the existing portfolio firms in the coming months. Only 41% said they would consider new deals.

"A comparison of priority investment sectors before and during Covid-19 shows 35% investors are now looking at investments in healthcare startups, followed by EdTech, AI/Deep Tech, FinTech and Agri," said the survey.

Around 44% incubators surveyed said their day-to-day operations had been considerably hit by Covid-19. Most incubators are now supporting their portfolio firms by providing them virtual platforms to interact with mentors, investors and industries.

Dilip Chenoy, FICCI Secretary General, said, "The startup sector is stressed for survival at the moment. The investment sentiment is also subdued and is expected to remain so in the coming months. Lack of working capital and cash flows may lead to major layoffs over the next 3-6 months."

Indian startups needed an enabling ecosystem and flow of funds to continue operations, the survey said.

Padmaja Ruparel, President, Indian Angel Network & Co-Chair of FICCI Startup Committee, said, "In these uncertain times, as investors, we must play an important role to provide the Indian startups funding, mentoring and hand-holding support to stay afloat and come out at the other end of this crisis."

To that end, IAN recently announced a debt fund to help IAN portfolio companies raise working capital and ensure business continuity by partnering with debt providers.

This must be replicated on a wider scale, so a larger number of startups are provided the capital support to make it during these tough times, Ruparel said.

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News Network
July 24,2020

Melbourne, Jul 24: Home-made cloth face masks may need a minimum of two layers, and preferably three, to prevent the dispersal of viral droplets associated with Covid-19, according to a study.

Researchers, including those from the University of New South Wales in Australia, noted that viral droplets are generated by those infected with the novel coronavirus when they cough, sneeze, or speak.

As face masks have been proven to protect healthy people from inhaling infectious droplets as well as reducing the spread from those who are already infected, several types of material have been suggested for these, but based on little or no evidence of how well they work, the scientists said.

In the current study, published in the journal Thorax, the researchers compared the effectiveness of single and double-layer cloth face coverings with a surgical face mask (Bao Thach) at reducing droplet spread.

They said the single layer covering was made from a folded piece of cotton T shirt and hair ties, and the double layer covering was made using the sew method described by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The scientists used a tailored LED lighting system and a high-speed camera to film the dispersal of airborne droplets produced by a healthy person with no respiratory infection, during speaking, coughing, and sneezing while wearing each type of mask.

Their analysis showed that the surgical face mask was the most effective at reducing airborne droplet dispersal, although even a single layer cloth face covering reduced the droplet spread from speaking.

But the study noted that a double layer covering was better than a single layer in reducing the droplet spread from coughing and sneezing.

According to the researchers, the effectiveness of cloth face masks is dependent on the number of layers of the covering, the type of material used, design, fit as well as the frequency of washing.

Based on their observations, they said a home made cloth mask with at least two layers is preferable to a single layer mask.

"Guidelines on home-made cloth masks should stipulate multiple layers," the scientists said, adding that there is a need for more research to inform safer cloth mask design.

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Agencies
March 16,2020

While Google is still working on a coronavirus screening and tracking website, Microsoft Bing team has already launched a web portal for tracking COVID-19 infections worldwide.

The website, accessible at bing.com/covid, provides up-to-date infection statistics for each country.

The COVID-19 Tracker currently lists 168,835 as total confirmed cases, 84,558 active cases, 77,761 recovered cases and 6,516 deaths.

There are at least 3,244 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus in the US and at least 61 deaths.

"Lots of Bing folks worked (from home) this past week to create a mapping and authoritative news resource for COVID19 info," Michael Schechter, General Manager for Bing Growth and Distribution at Microsoft, was quoted as saying in a ZDNet report on Sunday.

An interactive map allows site visitors to click on the country to see the specific number of cases and related articles from a variety of publishers.

Data is being aggregated from sources like the World Health Organization (WHO), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

Microsoft announced the website two days after US President Donald Trump said Google has begun working on COVID-19-related portal for US citizens.

Google's website is being built by Verily, a subsidiary of Alphabet focused on healthcare services.

"More than 1,700 engineers are currently working on the site", Trump said during a press briefing last week.

The tool will triage people who are concerned about their COVID-19 risk into testing sites based on guidance from public health officials and test availability.

Initially, there was some confusion on Google's coronavirus portal but the company later announced that it is "partnering with the US Government in developing a nationwide website that includes information about COVID-19 symptoms, risk, and testing information."

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