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Wuhan, Apr 15: In the six days after top Chinese officials secretly determined they likely were facing a pandemic from a new coronavirus, the city of Wuhan at the epicenter of the disease hosted a mass banquet for tens of thousands of people; millions began traveling through for Lunar New Year celebrations.

President Xi Jinping warned the public on the seventh day, Janaury 20. But by that time, more than 3,000 people had been infected during almost a week of public silence, according to internal documents obtained by The Associated Press and expert estimates based on retrospective infection data.

That delay from Jan 14 to Jan. 20 was neither the first mistake made by Chinese officials at all levels in confronting the outbreak, nor the longest lag, as governments around the world have dragged their feet for weeks and even months in addressing the virus.

But the delay by the first country to face the new coronavirus came at a critical time — the beginning of the outbreak. China's attempt to walk a line between alerting the public and avoiding panic set the stage for a pandemic that has infected almost 2 million people and taken more than 126,000 lives.

A This is tremendous, a said Zuo-Feng Zhang, an epidemiologist at the University of California, Los Angeles. If they took action six days earlier, there would have been much fewer patients and medical facilities would have been sufficient. We might have avoided the collapse of Wuhan's medical system.

Other experts noted that the Chinese government may have waited on warning the public to stave off hysteria, and that it did act quickly in private during that time.

But the six-day delay by China's leaders in Beijing came on top of almost two weeks during which the national Center for Disease Control did not register any cases from local officials, internal bulletins obtained by the AP confirm. Yet during that time, from Jan 5 to Jan 17, hundreds of patients were appearing in hospitals not just in Wuhan but across the country.

It's uncertain whether it was local officials who failed to report cases or national officials who failed to record them. It's also not clear exactly what officials knew at the time in Wuhan, which only opened back up last week with restrictions after its quarantine.

But what is clear, experts say, is that China's rigid controls on information, bureaucratic hurdles and a reluctance to send bad news up the chain of command muffled early warnings. The punishment of eight doctors for rumor-mongering, broadcast on national television on Jan. 2, sent a chill through the city's hospitals.

Doctors in Wuhan were afraid, said Dali Yang, a professor of Chinese politics at the University of Chicago. It was truly intimidation of an entire profession. Without these internal reports, it took the first case outside China, in Thailand on Jan 13, to galvanize leaders in Beijing into recognising the possible pandemic before them. It was only then that they launched a nationwide plan to find cases distributing CDC-sanctioned test kits, easing the criteria for confirming cases and ordering health officials to screen patients, all without telling the public.

The Chinese government has repeatedly denied suppressing information in the early days, saying it immediately reported the outbreak to the World Health Organization.

Allegations of a cover-up or lack of transparency in China are groundless, said foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian at a Thursday press conference.

The documents show that the head of China's National Health Commission, Ma Xiaowei, laid out a grim assessment of the situation on Jan. 14 in a confidential teleconference with provincial health officials.

A memo states that the teleconference was held to convey instructions on the coronavirus from President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Keqiang and Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, but does not specify what those instructions were.

The epidemic situation is still severe and complex, the most severe challenge since SARS in 2003, and is likely to develop into a major public health event, the memo cites Ma as saying.

The National Health Commission is the top medical agency in the country. In a faxed statement, the Commission said it had organised the teleconference because of the case reported in Thailand and the possibility of the virus spreading during New Year travel. It added that China had published information on the outbreak in an open, transparent, responsible and timely manner," in accordance with important instructions repeatedly issued by President Xi.

The documents come from an anonymous source in the medical field who did not want to be named for fear of retribution. The AP confirmed the contents with two other sources in public health familiar with the teleconference. Some of the memo's contents also appeared in a public notice about the teleconference, stripped of key details and published in February.

Under a section titled sober understanding of the situation, the memo said that clustered cases suggest that human-to-human transmission is possible. It singled out the case in Thailand, saying that the situation had changed significantly because of the possible spread of the virus abroad.

With the coming of the Spring Festival, many people will be traveling, and the risk of transmission and spread is high, the memo continued.

Houston, Mar 15: Researchers, studying the novel coronavirus, have found that the time between cases in a chain of transmission is less than a week, and over 10 per cent of patients are infected by someone who has the virus, but does not show symptoms yet, a finding that may help public health officials contain the pandemic.

The study, published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, estimated what's called the serial interval of the coronavirus by measuring the time it takes for symptoms to appear in two people with the virus -- the person who infects another, and the infected second person.

According to the researchers, including those from the University of Texas at Austin, the average serial interval for the novel coronavirus in China was approximately four days.

They said the speed of an epidemic depends on two things -- how many people each case infects, and how long it takes cases to spread.

The first quantity, the scientists said, is called the reproduction number, and the second is the serial interval.

Due to the short serial interval of the disease caused by the coronavirus -- COVID-19 -- they said, emerging outbreaks will grow quickly, and could be difficult to stop.

“Ebola, with a serial interval of several weeks, is much easier to contain than influenza, with a serial interval of only a few days,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, study co-author from UT Austin.

Meyers explained that public health responders to Ebola outbreaks have much more time to identify and isolate cases before they infect others.

“The data suggest that this coronavirus may spread like the flu. That means we need to move quickly and aggressively to curb the emerging threat,” Meyers added.

In the study, the scientists examined more than 450 infection case reports from 93 cities in China, and found the strongest evidence yet that people without symptoms must be transmitting the virus -- known as pre-symptomatic transmission.

More than one in ten infections were from people who had the virus but did not yet feel sick, the scientists said.

While researchers across the globe had some uncertainty until now about asymptomatic transmission with the coronavirus, the new evidence could provide guidance to public health officials on how to contain the spread of the disease.

“This provides evidence that extensive control measures including isolation, quarantine, school closures, travel restrictions and cancellation of mass gatherings may be warranted,” Meyers said.

The researchers cautioned that asymptomatic transmission makes containment more difficult.

With hundreds of new cases emerging around the world every day, the scientists said, the data may offer a different picture over time.

They said infection case reports are based on people's memories of where they went and whom they had contact with, and if health officials move quickly to isolate patients, that may also skew the data.

“Our findings are corroborated by instances of silent transmission and rising case counts in hundreds of cities worldwide. This tells us that COVID-19 outbreaks can be elusive and require extreme measures,” Meyers said.

New Delhi, Jul 5: With highest-ever single-day spike of 24,850 COVID-19 cases in 24 hours, India's coronavirus count stood at 6,73,165, informed the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Sunday.

Out of the total cases, 2,44,814 are active cases. On the other hand, India's cured/discharged patients count crossed the 4 lakh mark with 4,09,082 patients cured/discharged and one patient migrated.

As many as 613 deaths due to coronavirus were reported in the country in the last 24 hours taking the death toll in the country to 19,268.

Meanwhile, the ministry said that collective and focused efforts for containment and management of COVID-19 by the government of India along with the States/UTs have led to the number of recovered cases among COVID-19 patients rise to 4,09,082 as of today.

"During the last 24 hours, a total of 14,856 COVID-19 patients have been cured. So far, there are 1,64,268 more recovered patients than COVID-19 active cases. This takes the national recovery rate amongst COVID-19 patients to 60.77 per cent," the ministry said.

"With 786 labs in government sector and 314 private labs, there are as many as 1,100 labs in India," it added.

As per the Health Ministry, coronavirus cases in Maharashtra -- the worst affected state from the infection -- has breached the 2 lakh mark with 2,00,064 cases including 8,671 deaths.

Tamil Nadu reported 4,150 fresh COVID-19 cases and 60 deaths today, taking total cases to 1,11,151 and death toll to 1,510. Number of active cases stands at 46,860, according to the State Health Department.

Delhi's coronavirus tally nears the 1 lakh mark with 99,444 cases and the number of people succumbing to the virus stands at 3,067 in the national capital. As many as 9,873 RT-PCR tests and 13,263 rapid antigen tests were conducted today in Delhi. Total tests done so far stands at 6,43,504.

Meanwhile, Indian Council of Medical Research informed that the total number of samples tested up to July 4 is 97,89,066 of which 2,48,934 samples were tested yesterday.

There were seven new COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours in Chandigarh, taking total cases to 466 including 395 recoveries and six deaths.
Himachal Pradesh Health Department informed that COVID-19 cases reach 1,048 in the state, of which, 309 cases are active and 715 have recovered.

Andhra Pradesh has reported 998 new COVID-19 cases and 14 deaths in the last 24 hours, according to a media bulletin released by AP state COVID nodal officer.

A total of 1,155 COVID-19 cases were reported in the last 24 hours in Uttar Pradesh on Sunday, taking the total number of active cases to 8,161 in the state, an official said. According to the official data, a total of 18,761 people have been cured while 785 people have died due to the virus in the state.

Eighteen more personnel of Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) tested positive for COVID-19 in the last 24 hours. There are total 151 active cases and 270 have recovered till date.

While, in the last 24 hours, 36 more Border Security Force (BSF) personnel tested positive for COVID-19 and 33 have recovered. There are 526 active cases and 817 personnel have recovered till date.

In Rajasthan, 224 fresh COVID-19 positive cases and 6 deaths were reported today. The total number of cases rose to 19,756 including 3,640 active cases and 453 deaths.

Odisha reported 469 new COVID19 positive cases in the last 24 hours, taking the total number of positive cases in the state to 9,070 including 5,934 recovered cases and 3,090 active cases, according to the health department.

Uttarakhand reported 31 new COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, taking total cases to 3,124. Recovery rate among COVID-19 patients stands at 80.79 per cent.