Doing everything as per Nepal's requirements: Parrikar

New Delhi, May 17: Following the COVID-19-induced economic disruptions, up to 135 million jobs could be lost and 120 million people might be pushed back into poverty in India, all of which will have a hit on consumer income, spending and savings, says a report.

According to a new report by international management consulting firm Arthur D Little, the worst of COVID-19's impact will be felt by India's most vulnerable in terms of job loss, poverty increase and reduced per-capita income, which in turn will result in a steep decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

"Given the continued rise of COVID-19 cases, we believe that a W-shaped recovery is the most likely scenario for India. This implies a GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY 2020-21 and GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in FY 2021-22," the report said.

India's COVID-19 tally has crossed 90,000 and the nationwide death toll has touched nearly 2,800 so far.

The report titled "India: Surmounting the economic challenges posed by COVID-19: A 10-point programme to revive and power India's post-COVID economy" said the 'collateral damage' of the forecasted GDP slowdown, will be felt most acutely in employment, poverty alleviation, per-capita income and overall nominal GDP.

"Unemployment may rise to 35 per cent from 7.6 per cent resulting in 136 million jobs lost and a total of 174 million unemployed. Poverty alleviation will receive a set-back, significantly changing the fortunes of many, putting 120 million people into poverty and 40 million into abject poverty," the report said.

"India is headed towards a W-shaped economic recovery with a potential GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY21. An opportunity loss of USD 1 trillion is staring India in its face," said Barnik Chitran Maitra, lead author of the report and Managing Partner & CEO of Arthur D Little, India and South Asia.

Maitra further said "for its USD 5 trillion vision, a radical economic approach is needed, centred on an immediate stimulus and structural reforms. The Prime Minister's visionary 'Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan' is a good start to this new approach."

The report lauded the steps taken by the government and the Reserve Bank of India, but said a far more assertive approach may be required given the magnitude of the adverse economic output.

The report suggested a 10-point programme to accelerate the recovery which include strengthening the 'safety net' significantly for the most vulnerable, enable survival of small and medium businesses, restarting the rural economy and providing targeted assistance to at-risk sectors.

It further said the government should launch "Make in India 2.0" to capture global opportunities, build 'Modern India', accelerate Digital India and Innovation, strengthen global investment corridors with the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Japan and the UK, debottleneck land and labour and transform banking and financial markets in a bid to secure a sustainable economic future for 1.3 billion Indians. 

New Delhi, Apr 24: The Central government said on Wednesday that the number of COVID-19 cases in the country is now doubling in every 10 days, adding that had the lockdown not been imposed on time, the number of cases would have sky-rocketed to over one lakh by now.

"Had we not taken the decision to impose nationwide lockdown, we would have had around one lakh COVID-19 cases by now. This is a reasonable estimate," said Niti Aayog member V.K. Paul.

Paul, who is also the Chairman of the government's Empowered Committee- 1, said the "cases are now doubling in every 10 days."

"As on March 21, our doubling time of cases was three days. Results started showing on March 23, due to travel restrictions imposed earlier. On April 6, further slowing of doubling rate became visible, thanks to the nationwide lockdown," he added.

He further added that the decision to impose the lockdown was timely and asserted that the curve has begun to flatten.

"Nationwide lockdown helped take us away from the exponential growth curve and thereby contain the growth of COVID-19 cases," he said.

Paul further added that surveillance has been a great strength in containing the spread of the virus.

"Besides containing the spread, augmenting testing and improving preparedness, the nation has brought about a massive behavioural change through a ‘Jan Andolan' (mass movement)," he said.

Meanwhile, the number of confirmed cases in the country has crossed the 23,000-mark, with 718 deaths. Globally, the number of cases has crossed 2.7 million while the death toll has mounted to 1.9 lakh.

New Delhi, May 5: India registered the biggest jump in numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths, with 3,900 new cases and 195 deaths being reported in the last 24 hours, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Tuesday.

"3,900 COVID-19 cases and 195 deaths have been reported in the last 24 hours, the largest spike till now in both," according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

The total number of confirmed coronavirus cases in India reached 46,433, including 1,568 deaths, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare on Tuesday.

According to the latest update by the MoHFW, 12,727 patients in the country have been cured and discharged, or have migrated, as of today morning. At present, there are 32,138 active cases in the country.

Maharashtra with 14,541 cases is the worst-affected state by the disease, while Gujarat with 5,804 cases is second on the list.