Don’t communalise, says Army after Owaisi reveals religion of martyred soldiers

Chennai/New Delhi, Jan 14: India's annual electricity demand in 2019 grew at its slowest pace in six years with December marking a fifth straight month of decline, government data showed, amid a broader economic slowdown that led to a drop in sales of everything from cars to cookies and also to factories cutting jobs.

Electricity demand is seen as an important indicator of industrial output in the country and a sustained decline could mean a further slowdown in the economy.

India's power demand grew at 1.1% in 2019, data from the Central Electricity Authority showed, the slowest pace of growth since a 1% uptick seen in 2013. The power demand growth slowdown in 2013 was preceded by three strong years of consumption growth of 8% or more.

In December, the country's power demand fell 0.5% from the year-earlier period, representing the fifth straight month of decline, compared with a 4.3% fall in November.

But in India's western states of Maharashtra and Gujarat, two of India's most industrialised provinces, monthly demand increased.

In October, power demand had fallen 13.2% from a year earlier, its steepest monthly decline in more than 12 years, as a slowdown in Asia's third-largest economy deepened.

Industry accounts for more than two-fifths of India's annual electricity consumption, while homes account for nearly a fourth and agriculture more than a sixth.

The slower demand growth is a blow for many debt-laden power producers, who are facing financial stress and are owed over $11 billion by state-run distribution companies.

India's overall economic growth slowed to 4.5% in the July-September quarter, government data released in November showed, the weakest pace since 2013 as consumer demand and private investment fell.

The government has estimated growth in the current financial year that runs through to March will be the slowest since the 2008 global crisis.

"This reflects overall economic slowdown, because if you look at other high frequency data like diesel consumption, everywhere you are seeing contraction," Rupa Rege Nitsure, chief economist at L&T Financial Holdings.

But India's central bank will not have much scope to cut rates to stimulate the economy because inflation has been rising sharply and reached 7.35% in December compared with 1.97% in January last year.

Economists say India's growth will continue to hover around 4.5% levels in the Oct-Dec quarter.

"In the Oct-Dec quarter as well growth (GDP) will be around the same level as July-September. My estimate for the full year is around 4.7% growth," Nitsure said.

New Delhi, Feb 1: India on Friday banned the export of personal protection equipment such as masks and clothing amid a global coronavirus outbreak.

It did not give a reason for the ban but it reported its first case of the new coronavirus on Thursday, a woman in Kerala who was a student of Wuhan University in China.

The central Chinese city of Wuhan is the epicentre of the outbreak, and the virus has since spread to more than 9,800 people globally and killed 213 people in China.

Several Indian citizens living in Wuhan will arrive in India by plane on Saturday and be taken to a quarantine centre on the outskirts of the capital New Delhi.

India, the world’s second most heavily populated country after China, has taken measures to ensure that all people arriving from China report to health authorities.

Jun 9: Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants all 1.3 billion Indians to be “vocal for local” — meaning, to not just use domestically made products but also to promote them. As an overseas citizen living in Hong Kong, I’m doing my bit by very vocally demanding Indian mangoes on every trip to the grocery. But half the summer is gone, and not a single slice so far.

My loss is due to India’s COVID-19 lockdown, which has severely pinched logistics, a perennial challenge in the huge, infrastructure-starved country. But more worrying than the disruption is the fruity political response to it. Rather than being a wake-up call for fixing supply chains, the pandemic seems to be putting India on an isolationist course. Why?

Granted that the liberal view that trade is good and autarky bad isn’t exactly fashionable anywhere right now. What makes India’s lurch troublesome is that the pace and direction of economic nationalism may be set by domestic business interests. The Indian liberals, many of whom are Western-trained academics, authors and — at least until a few years ago — policy makers, want a more competitive economy. They will be powerless to prevent the slide.

Modi’s call for a self-reliant India has been echoed by Home Minister Amit Shah, the cabinet’s unofficial No. 2, in a television interview. If Indians don’t buy foreign-made goods, the economy will see a jump, he said. The strategy — although it’s too nebulous yet to call it that — has a geopolitical element. A military standoff with China is under way, apparently triggered by India’s completion of a road and bridge near the common border in the tense Himalayan region of Ladakh. It’s very expensive to fight even a limited war there. With India’s economy flattened by COVID, New Delhi may be looking for ways to restore the status quo and send Beijing a signal.

Economic boycotts, such as Chinese consumers’ rejection of Japanese goods over territorial disputes in the East China Sea, are well understood as statecraft. In these times, it’s not even necessary to name an enemy. An undercurrent of popular anger against China, the source of both the virus and India’s biggest bilateral trade deficit, is supposed to do the job. But is it ever that easy?

A hastily introduced policy to stock only local goods in police and paramilitary canteens became a farcical exercise after the list of banned items ended up including products by the local units of Colgate-Palmolive Co., Nestle SA, and Unilever NV, which have had significant Indian operations for between 60 and 90 years, as well as Dabur India Ltd., a New Delhi-based maker of Ayurveda brands. The since-withdrawn list demonstrates the practical difficulty of bureaucrats trying to find things in a globalized world that are 100% indigenous.

Free-trade champions fret that the prime minister, whom they saw as being on their side six years ago, is acting against their advice to dismantle statist controls on land, labor and capital to help make the country more competitive. Engage with the world more, not less, they caution. But Modi also has to satisfy the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the umbrella Hindu organisation that gets him votes. Its backbone of small traders, builders and businessmen — the RSS admits only men — was losing patience with the anemic economy even before the pandemic. Now, they’re in deep trouble, because India’s broken financial system won’t deliver even state-guaranteed loans to them.

The U.S.-China tensions — over trade, intellectual property, COVID responsibility and Hong Kong’s autonomy — offer a perfect backdrop. A dire domestic economy and trouble at the border provide the foreground. Big business will dial economic nationalism up and down to hit a trifecta of goals: Block competition from the People's Republic; make Western rivals fall in line and do joint ventures; and tap deep overseas capital markets. The first goal is being achieved with newly placed restrictions on investment from any country that shares a land border with India. The second aim is to be realized by corporate lobbying to influence India's whimsical economic policies. As for the third objective, with the regulatory environment becoming tougher for U.S.-listed Chinese companies like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., an opportunity may open up for Indian firms.

All this may bring India Shenzhen-style enclaves of manufacturing and trade, but it will concentrate economic power in fewer hands, something that worries liberals. They’re moved by the suffering of India’s low-wage workers, who have borne the brunt of the COVID shutdown. But when their vision of a more just society and fairer income distribution prompts them to make common cause with the ideological Left, they’re quickly repelled by the Marxist voodoo that all cash, property, bonds and real estate held by citizens or within the nation “must be treated as national resources available during this crisis.” Who will invest in a country that does that instead of just printing money?

At the same time, when liberals look to the business class, they see a sudden swelling of support for ideas like a universal basic income. They wonder if this isn’t a ploy by industry to outsource part of the cost of labor to the taxpayer. Slogans like Modi’s vocal-for-local stir the pot and thicken the confusion. The value-conscious Indian consumer couldn’t give two hoots for calls to buy Indian, but large firms will know how to exploit economic nationalism. One day soon, I’ll get my mangoes — from them.