Don't think govt will give relaxation to Rohingya Muslims: Naqvi

Mar 21: India’s economy, already in the grip of a slowdown, is in for more pain after Prime Minister Narendra Modi appealed to citizens to stay at and work from home to curb the coronavirus outbreak.

The services sector, which accounts for about 55% of India’s gross domestic product, is poised to be the worst hit after Modi, in a late evening address on Thursday, urged citizens to go on a self-imposed curfew for a day and private companies to allow employees to work from home for longer. In the country’s vast informal sector, social-distancing measures could mean a dent to productivity and consumption because of job or pay losses.

“The impact of a partial lock-down or social distancing will be significant,” said Rahul Bajoria, a senior economist at Barclays Plc in Mumbai. “If there’s a widespread community outbreak, GDP could fall as low as 3.5% in the year starting April 1.”

Shrinking output may limit growth in an economy that’s already set to expand at an 11-year low of 5% in the current year to March 31. Before the virus outbreak, India had forecast growth to recover to 6%-6.5% in the next fiscal year. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have already slashed their growth forecast by 50 basis points.

“The current social-distancing measures will severely impact airlines, hotels, malls, multiplexes, restaurants and retailers,” according to analysts at Crisil Ltd., the local unit of S&P Global. “Lower footfalls and occupancies, decline in business volume and sub-optimal operating efficiencies will impact cash flows of companies in these sectors,” wrote the analysts led by Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi.

The government will try to announce a relief package for virus-affected sectors as early as possible, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Friday.

In a televised address, Modi advised all citizens to stay at home for a day on March 22, as he sought to stem the spread of the coronavirus -- cases of which are relatively low in India at about 200, compared with more than 200,000 infected people globally. His government also barred incoming flights for a week from that day, joining a growing list of countries effectively sealing their borders.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say

We had only earlier this week lowered our GDP outlook to consider the direct impact of the local outbreak as confirmed virus cases exceeded 100 as of March 15 and the federal and state governments announced social distancing measures that have already started to crimp economic activity. We are now revising down our GDP estimate for 4Q fiscal 2020 to 3.3%, from our 3.5%.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

For more, click here

“Consumption being the biggest component of GDP, a lock-down is bound to have a big impact on the economy,” said Devendra Kumar Pant, chief economist at India Ratings and Research, the local unit of Fitch. “Modeling uncertainty in any system will be very difficult, but one can say the slowdown could deepen or prolong further.”

Work From Home

While companies, including billionaire Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Ltd., are asking employees to work from home, the option isn’t feasible in India’s vast informal sector.

“The option to work remotely simply won’t exist for most,” said Shilan Shah, an economist with Capital Economics Pte. in Singapore.

As many households don’t have savings buffers, the government would probably have to back this up with large-scale cash handouts that reach the poorest, he said.

Work from home is posing implementation challenges for the manufacturing sector where workers are required to be physically present at the production sites. The services sector, such as banking and information technology, also needs employees to be present in offices as confidential data is used, according to industry group Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.

Mangaluru, Mar 19: The officers of Directorate of Revenue Intelligence, on March 11 intercepted 2 persons - Syed Mohammed and Shri Ashoka K S - Mangalore Central Railway Station and recovered 5.6 Kgs of gold bars in crude form.

The operation was conducted based on specific information about a network of operators who were bringing smuggled gold in the form of crude bars from Calicut to Mangaluru. The gold was then re-melted and cast into 100 gms bars with foreign markings, using foreign marking moulds, and was then getting distributed to various locations in Karnataka.

Further, one Mr. Manjunath Shet alias Rupesh who was supposed to receive the said gold from the passengers was also apprehended at the parking lot of the railway station.

Simultaneous searches were conducted in three different premises in car street Mangaluru, Udupi, and Shivamogga.

Further, the source of the gold was traced to melters/jewellers in Calicut and swift follow up action was conducted leading to seizures of gold and Rs 82 lakh Cash. Two cars of Toyota Etios model belonging to the syndicate having specially designed cavities for concealment which were used for transporting cash and gold between Calicut and Mangaluru were also seized.

Naveen Chandra Kamath of Udupi, who is the master mind involved in the case was also apprehended. Overall 7 persons were arrested during the entire operation. Further investigation is ongoing in the said case to uncover the other persons involved in the racket. The total seizure was 9.3Kgs of gold, valued at approximately 4 crores, 5.2 kgs of silver along with Rs 84 lakh in cash.

The team constituted of 40 officers from Bengaluru, Mangaluru and Shivamogga took part in the co-ordinated effort.

Kanpur,  Jul 3: A total of eight police personnel including Deputy Superintendent of Police Devendra Mishra have lost their lives after they were fired upon by criminals in the early hours of Friday.

The incident took place when a police team had gone to raid history-sheeter Vikas Dubey's house.

Senior Superintendent of Police and Inspector General of Police have reached the spot and forensics team is examining the area.

State Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has expressed his condolence to the families of the eight Police personnel who lost their lives after being fired upon by criminals in Kanpur. He has directed Director General of Police HC Awasthi to take strict action against criminals. He also sought a report of the incident.