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New Delhi, May 14: India may witness the death of additional 1.2-6 lakh children over the next one year from preventable causes as a consequence to the disruption in regular health services due to the COVID-19 pandemic, UNICEF has warned.

The warning comes from a new study that brackets India with nine other nations from Asia and Africa that could potentially have the largest number of additional child deaths as a consequence to the pandemic.

These potential child deaths will be in addition to the 2.5 million children who already die before their fifth birthday every six months in the 118 countries included in the study.

The estimate is based on an analysis by researchers from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health published in the Lancet.  

This means the global mortality rate of children dying before their fifth birthday, one of the key progress indicators in all of the global development, could potentially increase for the first time since 1960 when the data was first collected.

There were 1.04 million under-5 deaths in India in 2017, of which nearly 50% (0.57 million) were neonatal deaths. The highest number of under-5 deaths was in Uttar Pradesh (312,800 which included 165,800 neonatal deaths) and Bihar (141,500 which included 75,300 neonatal deaths).

The researchers looked at three scenarios, factoring in parameters like reduction in workforce, supplies and access to healthcare for services like family planning, antenatal care, childbirth care, postnatal care, vaccination and preventive care for early childhood. The effects are modelled for a period of three months, six months and 12 months.  

In scenario-1 marked by 10-18% reduction of coverage of all the services, the number of additional children deaths could be in the range of 30,000 plus over three months, more than 60,000 over six months and above 120,000 over the next 12 months.

Coronavirus India update: State-wise total number of confirmed cases, deaths on May 13

The numbers sharply rose to nearly 55,000; 109,000 and 219,000 respectively for scenario-2, which was associated with an 18-28% drop in all the regular services.

But in the worst-case scenario in which 40-50% of the services are not available, the number of additional deaths ballooned to 1.5 lakhs in the three months in the short-range to nearly six lakhs over a year.

The ten countries that could potentially have the largest number of additional child deaths are Bangladesh, Brazil, Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Uganda and Tanzania.

In countries with already weak health systems, COVID-19 is causing disruptions in medical supply chains and straining financial and human resources.

Visits to health care centres are declining due to lockdowns, curfews and transport disruptions, and due to the fear of infection among the communities. Such disruptions could result in potentially devastating increases in maternal and child deaths, the UN agency warned.

Thiruvananthapuram, Apr 24: Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan on Thursday said that there is no community spread or the expected phase three spread of coronavirus in the state so far but the threat continues.

Speaking to media persons here on Thursday, Vijayan said that Kasargod, Kannur, Kozhikode, and Malappuram districts will be in the red zone with full restrictions.

"All the other ten districts in the State will be in the orange zone. With the detection of new cases today, the status of Kottayam and Idukki districts have been changed from green to orange. The district administration will decide on the hotspot areas to be closed," he said.

He said there would be an increase in the number of random tests in the red zones.

"In an effort to confirm that there is no community spread in the State, random antibody tests would be conducted among health workers, police personnel, home delivery persons, volunteers and migrant labourers," he added.

The Chief Minister said that COVID-19 labs set up at the Pariyaram Government Medical College at Kannur and the Kottayam Medical College have got the approval from the ICMR for coronavirus testing. The lab at Kannur Medical College will start functioning from Friday.

The UV sterilised lab, spread over 2,200 sq ft is equipped with four real-time PCR machines. In the first phase, this lab will be able to do 15 tests per day, which will be gradually increased to conduct 60 tests in the next phase.

"With the opening of these two new labs, tests to detect COVID-19 will be conducted in 14 government labs in Kerala. Apart from this, there are two private labs also in Kerala which are doing these tests. Since the number of coronavirus cases is again increasing in the State, the government has decided to procure ten real-time PCR machines to ramp up testing," he added.

Bantwal, Jul 24: Former Union Minister B Janardhan Poojary on Friday said that people need to shed all their misconception regarding COVID-19 and stop taking it so lightly as it is not just any normal disease.

The 83-year-old politician who was tested positive for covid-19, was recently discharged from hospital after recovering completely.

Giving a word of caution, he said, “Earlier also there have been several diseases like Covid-19 and it has been eradicated. Even covid-19 will be eradicated. So, people should not get scared of the disease instead must fight with it”

“Also, covid-19 patients must not be treated like untouchables as those with symptoms may also not mention it due to the fear of being treated badly,” he added.