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New Delhi, Feb 29: India’s economy expanded at its slowest pace in more than six years in the last three months of 2019, with analysts predicting further deceleration as the global Covid 19 coronavirus outbreak stifles growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The gross domestic product (GDP) data released yesterday showed government spending, private investment and exports slowing down, while there is a slight upturn in consumer spending and improvement in rural demand lent support.

The quarterly figure of 4.7% growth matched the consensus in a Reuters poll of analysts but was below a revised - and greatly increased - 5.1% rate for the previous quarter.

The central bank has warned that downside risks to global growth have increased as a result of the coronavirus epidemic, the full effects of which are still unfolding.

Prime minister Narendra Modi’s government has taken several steps to bolster economic growth, including a privatisation push and increased state spending, after cutting corporate tax rates last September.

In its annual budget presented this month, the government estimated that annual economic growth in the financial year to March 31 would be 5%, its lowest for last 11 years.

Modi’s government is targeting a slight recovery in growth to 6% for 2020/21, still far below the level needed to generate jobs for millions of young Indians entering the labour market each month.

The annual GDP figure for the September quarter was ramped up from an earlier estimate of 4.5%, while the April-June reading was similarly lifted to 5.6% from 5%, data released by the Ministry of Statistics showed on Friday.

Capital Investment Drop

In the December quarter, private investment grew 5.9%, up from 5.6% in the previous quarter, while government spending rose by 11.8%, against 13.2% in the previous three months.

However, corporate capital investment contracted by 5.2% after a 4.1% decline in the previous quarter, indicating that interest rate cuts by the central bank have failed to encourage new investment. Manufacturing, meanwhile, contracted by 0.2%.

“It appears growth slowdown is not just cyclical but more entrenched with consumption secularly joining the slowdown bandwagon even as the investment story continues to languish,” said Madhavi Arora of Edelweiss Securities in Mumbai.

Many economists said that the government stimulus could take four to six quarters of time before lifting the economy and the impact of those efforts could be outweighed by the global fallout from the coronavirus epidemic that began in China.

“The coronavirus remains the critical risk as India depends on China for both demand and supply of inputs,” said Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank.

Indian shares sank on Friday for a sixth session running, capping their worst week in more than a decade. The NSE Nifty 50 index shed 7.3% over the week, while the Sensex dropped 6.8%, the worst weekly declines since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Separately, India’s infrastructure output rose 2.2% year on year in January, data showed on Friday.

A spike in inflation to a more than 5-1/2 year high of 7.59% in January is expected to make the RBI hold off from further cuts to interest rates for now, while keeping its monetary stance accommodative.

Mar 11: In a bid to keep its flock together, the crisis-hit Madhya Pradesh Congress has decided to shift its 92 MLAs either to Jaipur or some other place.

The move comes after 22 Congress MLAs loyal to former Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia resigned on Tuesday, pushing the 15-month-old Kamal Nath government to the brink of collapse.

"We are going to take our 92 MLAs and those supporting our Madhya Pradesh government to a hotel," a senior Congress leader said on Wednesday.

The legislators would be taken either to Jaipur or some other Congress-ruled state like Chhattisgarh, a party source said.

Apart from its own MLAs, the Congress is also keeping a close watch on four Independents who are supporting the party-led state government.

On Tuesday, 22 Congress MLAs from Madhya Pradesh resigned soon after Scindia quit the party.

The development reduced the Congress government in the state to minority.

The state Congress unit is now making all efforts to save the Kamal Nath-led government.

The BJP on Tuesday night shifted its MLAs to Manesar at Gurugram in Haryana, sources in the saffron party said.

The Congress, whose tally before the rebellion was 114, has a wafer-thin majority in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly whose current effective strength is 228.

It also has the support of four Independents, two BSP legislators and one SP MLA, but some of them are now likely to switch sides to the BJP.

The BJP has 107 seats in the state Assembly.

New Delhi, Jun 29: Fuel prices rose on Monday again after a days pause with oil marketing companies increasing the pump price of petrol by 5 paisa and diesel by 13 paisa per litre in Delhi.

In the national capital, petrol price on Monday stood at Rs 80.43 per litre while that of diesel at Rs 80.53 a litre.

With this increase, fuel prices have moved up on 22 of the last 23 days (with no rise on Sunday). Petrol prices, however, were unchanged for an additional day in between after the daily revision based on dynamic pricing was reinstated by OMCs.

Since the daily price revision resumed on June 7, petrol price has increased Rs 9.17 and diesel rose by Rs 11.14 in the national capital. In the other cities the magnitude of increase was similar.

During the past 23 days, the quantum of price hike gradually declined from around 60 paise raise for a few days, immediately post the resumption of daily price revision, to less than 20 paise during the past few days and now even less than 10 paisa per litre.

In a historic development, the price of diesel surged above that of petrol in the national capital during this period. It continues to remain higher even though on Saturday the quantum of petrol price hike was higher than that of diesel.

Officials in oil marketing companies said that it is hard to predict which of the two fuels will be priced higher in the Capital as the gap between the two is almost negligible. But petrol prices have shown more volatility in international markets that may take it ahead once again in coming days.

Apart from Delhi, the retail prices of petrol and diesel have followed the traditional path in other metros with petrol being priced at a premium of between Rs 5 and 8 per litre. The difference between the auto fuel prices in Delhi and other metros is because of the taxation structure.

While both petrol and diesel are at similar levels of taxes (state and centre) in Delhi, it is higher for petrol in many other Indian cities.

Globally diesel is priced a tad higher than petrol. In India too, the base price of diesel is slightly higher than petrol but taxation at central and state levels changed the complexion of retail prices.

If the price of petroleum products and crude hold their positions in global markets, then petrol and diesel prices rise may stop for a longer period and we may even see marginal fall in prices.

Fuel prices have been increasing since June 7 when oil companies began the daily price revision mechanism after a hiatus of 82 days during the lockdown.