Double Blow to Rupee Quells Revival Hope for Worst Asia Currency

Agencies
December 12, 2018

Dec 12:  Rupee bulls should put to rest any hope of a respite for Asia’s worst currency in the last few days of what’s been a dreadful year.

This week’s shock departure of India’s central bank chief and defeat for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling party in key state elections have dealt a double blow to the currency, taking its year-to-date loss to 11 percent. Mizuho Bank Ltd. is expecting more pain.

The rupee may drop to about 73 per dollar as Urjit Patel’s resignation leads foreign investors to fret over the Reserve Bank of India’s independence and policy continuity, according to Masakatsu Fukaya, an emerging-market currency trader at the lender in Tokyo. A break of that level may open the door for a slide to 74, he said.

While the government has rushed to appoint Shaktikanta Das -- a former bureaucrat -- as the new RBI governor, investors would want to see if that resolves differences seen between the central bank and the administration in the run up to Patel’s exit.

They will also have to contend with political uncertainty after Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party faced defeat in three key states, helping his main opponents seize back momentum ahead of India’s 2019 national vote. The loss amounts to Modi’s biggest political setback since taking office in 2014.

“A potential implication from BJP not having a strong hold in state elections would be the risk of more populist policies” which may add to India’s fiscal slippage, said Frances Cheung, head of Asia macro strategy at Westpac Banking Corp. in Singapore. That -- along with any potential change in the RBI’s monetary-policy stance due to the appointment of a new governor -- “does not bode well for the rupee,” she said.

‘Tough Going’

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is also predicting short-term weakness for the rupee, which slid 1.5 percent over the last two days to close at 71.8575 per dollar on Tuesday.

The currency will depreciate also because “oil prices have bottomed for the time being,” Adarsh Sinha, co-head of Asia rates and currency strategy at BofAML, said on Bloomberg Television. “Over the next three to four months, it’s going to be tough going for the Indian rupee heading into the general election where there is some uncertainty around the BJP has to form a coalition or not.”

Sinha said the central bank could cut rates as soon as February, partly because inflation has undershot its target “quite considerably.” There’s a “justifiable case for the RBI to ease monetary policy irrespective of who the governor was,” he said.

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News Network
February 2,2020

Beijing, Feb 2: India on Sunday temporarily suspended e-visa facility for Chinese travellers and foreigners residing in China in view of the virulent coronavirus that has killed more than 300 people, infected 14,562 others and spread to 25 countries, including India, the US and the UK.

“Due to certain current developments, travel to India on e-visas stands temporarily suspended with immediate effect," the Indian Embassy announced.

“This applies to holders of Chinese passports and applicants of other nationalities residing in the People's Republic of China. Holders of already issued e-visas may note that these are no longer valid," the announcement said.

“All those who have a compelling reason to visit India may contact the Embassy of India in Beijing or the Indian consulates in Shanghai or Guangzhou, as well as the Indian Visa Application Centres in these cities," it said.

On Sunday, India airlifted a second batch of 323 stranded Indians and seven Maldivian citizens from coronavirus-hit Wuhan city, taking the total number of people evacuated to 654.

Air India's jumbo B747 made two flights to Wuhan city - the ground zero of the coronavirus epidemic. In the first flight on early Saturday, 324 Indians were evacuated and on Sunday another 323 Indians and seven Maldivian citizens were flown back.

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dinah
 - 
Friday, 14 Feb 2020

It's not surprising for countries to restrict. it just feels wrong to treat them that way specially those who are not really infected. It could really hurt their feelings.

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News Network
February 9,2020

New Delhi, Feb 9: Calling India a "long-standing friend", Sri Lankan Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa on Saturday thanked Prime Minister Narendra Modi for visiting his country in the aftermath of last year's Easter Sunday terror attacks and outlined that New Delhi has always helped Colombo in its fight against terrorism.

In a joint press briefing with PM Modi, Mahinda Rajapaksa said he hopes that India will continue to help Sri Lanka fight terrorism.

Mahinda Rajapaksa expressed his gratitude to PM Modi for the neighbourhood first policy and the priority India gives to Sri Lanka.

"We had agreed that our cooperation is multifaceted and priority is given to a number of areas including security, economy, culture and social sectors. Part of our discussions centered on cooperation with regard to the security of the two countries. India has always assisted Sri Lanka to enhance our capacity, capabilities in intelligence and counter-terrorism. We look forward to getting continued support in this regard," he said.

"I thank the Prime Minister for visiting Sri Lanka in the aftermath of the Easter Sunday terror attacks that provided us with immense strength to come to terms with the tragedy. We also appreciate Prime Minister Modi's $400 million line of credit to enhance the economy of Sri Lanka and another $50 million line of credit for fighting terrorism," he added.

The Sri Lankan president urged PM Modi to consider further assistance to expand housing projectS all over Sri Lanka to benefit people from rural areas.

"The Prime Minister and I discussed how Sri Lanka and India can work together in the field of economy. India is among the world's fastest growing economies. I discussed with PM Modi how Sri Lanka could benefit from certain economic sectors where India is in a strong position," he said.

Concluding his statement, Mahinda Rajapaksa said, "India is our closest neighbour and a long-standing friend. The close historical links...provided a solid foundation to our ties."

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Agencies
January 9,2020

The World Bank says that a lack of credit and drop in private consumption have led to a gloomy growth outlook for India with a steep cut in growth rate for the current fiscal year and only a modest gain projected for the next year.

India's growth rate is forecast to be only 5 per cent for the current fiscal year, weighed down by a growth of only 4.5 per cent in the July-September quarter, according to the 2020 Global Economic Prospects report released on Wednesday.

"In India, [economic] activity was constrained by insufficient credit availability, as well as by subdued private consumption," the Bank said.

The growth rate is forecast by the Bank to pick up to 5.8 per cent in the next fiscal year and to 6.1 per cent in 2021-22.

India's growth rate was 6.8 per cent in 2018-19.

The 5 per cent growth rate projection for the current financial year is a sharp cut of 2.5 per cent from the 7.5 per cent forecast made by the Bank in January last year, toppling it from the rank of the world's fastest growing economy.

India's performance follows a global trend of lowered growth weighed down by developed economies.

The report estimated world economic growth rate to be only 2.4 per cent last year and forecast it to edge up 0.1 per cent to 2.5 per cent in the current year.

Even with the lower growth rate of 5 per cent in the current fiscal year and 5.8 per cent forecast for the next, India holds the second rank among large economies, behind only China with an estimated growth rate of 6.1 per cent for 2019 and 5.9 per cent this year.

The report blamed "weak confidence, liquidity issues in the financial sector" and "weakness in credit from non-bank financial companies" for India's slowdown.

The Bank predicated India's recovery to 5.8 per cent in the coming financial year for India but "on the monetary policy stance remaining accommodative" and the assumption that "the stimulative fiscal and structural measures already taken will begin to pay off."

It also warned that sharper-than-expected slowdown in major external markets such as United States and Europe, would affect South Asia through trade, financial, and confidence channels, especially for countries with strong trade links to these economies."

The Bank said that the growth of advanced economies was 1.6 per cent last year and "is anticipated to slip to 1.4 per cent in 2020 in part due to continued softness in manufacturing."

In contrast the growth of emerging market and developing countries is expected to accelerate from 3.5 per cent last year to 4.1 per cent this year, the report said.

In South Asia, Bangladesh is estimated to have the highest growth rate of 7.2 per cent in the current fiscal year, although down from 8.1 per cent last fiscal year.

But its higher regional growth rates are coming off a lower base with a per capital gross domestic product of $1,698 compared to $2,010 for India.

Bangladesh is expected to grow by 7.3 per cent in the next financial year.

Pakistan's growth rate is estimated at only 2.4 per cent in the current fiscal year and is projected to rise to 3 per cent in the next, according to the Bank.

The Bank blamed monetary tightening in Pakistan for a sharp deceleration in fixed investment and a considerable softening in private consumption for the fall in growth rate from 3.3 per cent in the 2018-19 fiscal year.

Sri Lanka's growth rate was estimated to be 2.7 per cent last year and forecast to grow to 3.3 per cent this year.

Nepal grew by an estimated 6.4 per cent in the current fiscal year and will rise to 6.5 per cent in the next.

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