Double whammy for Vijay Mallya: ED files case, DRT blocks $75 million in Diageo deal

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

Jammu, Apr 7: Old habits will just no longer do, a Jammu and Kashmir administration employee found to his dismay on Tuesday when he was sent to a quarantine centre for blowing his nose and spitting on the road.

The man, who works as an accountant in the civil secretariat here, had gone to meet a relative in Paloura on the outskirts of the city when he was nabbed, officials said.

The neighbours panicked when they saw him blowing his nose and immediately called the police, which rushed to the spot with a medical team and a magistrate, they said.

He was immediately taken to a quarantine facility set up at the IIT hostel in the Janipur area and his samples taken for a coronavirus test.

Given the high levels of anxiety over the spread of COVID-19, news of his being taken by police started circulating widely. There were also some WhatsApp messages that he was trying to deliberately spread the infection and was arrested by police.

However, police officials said they had not arrested him and merely put him in a quarantine centre. It was not clear how long he would be in the centre.

The employee told police officials he had an itch in his nose and nothing more.

"Be responsible citizens and stop spreading rumours or fake news," an official said, requesting people to be more responsible.

New Delhi, May 25: India witnessed the highest ever spike of 6,977 positive cases in the last 24 hours, taking the total number of COVID-19 to 1,38,845, according to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

India is now among the top 10 countries in the world regarding the total number of COVID-19 cases.

With 154 deaths reported in the last 24 hours, the total number of deaths due to COVID-19 now stands at 4,021 in the country.

Out of the total number of cases, 77,103 are active cases and 57,721 have been cured/discharged/migrated.

Maharashtra continues to remain the worst affected state with 50,231 COVID-19 cases, followed by Tamil Nadu (16,277), Gujarat (14,056) and Delhi (13,418).

The fourth phase of the nationwide lockdown imposed as a precautionary measure to contain the spread of COVID-19 is scheduled to end on May 31.