Dr Arathi Krishna assures sops for non-resident Kannadigas in Gulf

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

Bengaluru, Apr 24: Karnataka Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa on Thursday held a meeting with state officials to address the situation in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic.

Due to COVID-19, the prices of the crops have come down. It was instructed to buy those vegetables and keep them in cold storage and then sell. It was also instructed to export fruits, vegetables which cannot be kept for a long time to other states and countries.

Wherever there is a scarcity of drinking water, it was decided to supply water immediately.
Chief Minister Yediyurappa had earlier spoken to Union Minister Sadananda Gowda and took information regarding fertilisers.

As fertilisers' demand is less in the international market, the Union minister for fertilisers said that farmers will be given fertilisers at less than the actual price.

As some of the associations/guilds have violated the lease conditions by not starting the actual work which they have got the land for in Bengaluru, they have been instructed to return the land to the government where the lease conditions have been violated.

As far as the irrigation department is concerned, much water is stored in dams. It was decided to utilise the same for the cultivation of crops and for the purpose of drinking.

As far as the education department is concerned, it was instructed to give online training to students.

With the help of state television channel Doordarshan, it has been decided to teach students about the syllabus and other activities till the reopening of school.

The KSRTC has lost hundreds of crore due to the reduction in bus services due to COVID-19. So, they were instructed to use buses to transport goods to generate revenue.

The government also decided that salary for the doctors, who are working on a contract basis against COVID-19, will be increased significantly.