Dubai-Kuwait is world’s 9th busiest route

Dubai, Mar 9: The eyes of the world will be on the oil markets when the big trading hubs in Europe and North America open following the end of the deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia that has helped to sustain crude at relatively high levels for the past three years.

There were big falls on Friday when ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) failed to get a deal with non-OPEC members — the so-called OPEC+ — to extend output agreements. Brent oil was down nearly 10 percent at $45.27 going into the western weekend.

Saudi Aramco took immediate action to cut prices after the OPEC+ collapse, offering big discounts for crude deliveries from next month, when the current output restrictions end.

According to a notification sent to customers by Saudi Aramco, seen by Arab News, the Kingdom’s oil giant will cut between $4 and $8 per barrel, with the biggest discounts being offered to buyers in northwest Europe and the US.

Roger Diwan, an oil analyst at consultancy IHS Market, said: “We are likely to see the lowest oil prices of the past 20 years in the next quarter.”

West Texas Intermediate, the US oil benchmark, fell to $28.27 in November 2001.

The move raises the possibility of a “crude war” between the three biggest oil blocs — the US, Russia and the Arabian Gulf. Some analysts believe the American shale industry is more vulnerable to low prices than either the Russians or the Saudis.

Robin Mills, head of the Qamar consultancy, told Arab News: “I don’t think this was premeditated but Saudi Arabia has clearly swung quickly into action to put the Russians under pressure. But the Russians, with low debt and a flexible exchange rate, can cope with a few months of low prices.”

The boom in US shale has made the country the biggest oil producer in the world, but with high financing costs. Lower global prices would put a lot of shale companies out of business.

On the other hand, American motorists, and President Donald Trump, would be pleased to see lower fuel prices in an election year.

In Moscow, one prominent financier with ties to the Kingdom played down the long-term significance of the Vienna fallout.

Kirill Dmitriev, chief executive of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, told Arab News: “Saudi Arabia is our strategic partner, and cooperation between our two countries will continue in all areas. We will also continue to work within the framework of the Russia-Saudi Economic Council.”

One Russian official, who asked not to be named, added: “There is a good relationship between Alexander Novak, Russian energy minister, and his Saudi counterpart Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman, and I am sure they will continue talking to each other less formally.”

Riyadh, Jul 1: Saudis braced Wednesday for a tripling in value added tax, another unpopular austerity measure after the twin shocks of coronavirus and an oil price slump triggered the kingdom's worst economic decline in decades.

Retailers in the country reported a sharp uptick in sales this week of everything from gold and electronics to cars and building materials, as shoppers sought to stock up before VAT is raised to 15 percent.

The hike could stir public resentment as it weighs on household incomes, pushing up inflation and depressing consumer spending as the kingdom emerges from a three-month coronavirus lockdown.

"Cuts, cuts, cuts everywhere," a Saudi teacher in Riyadh told AFP, bemoaning vanishing subsidies as salaries remain stagnant.

"Air conditioner, television, electronic items," he said, rattling off a list of items he bought last week ahead of the VAT hike.

"I can't afford these things from Wednesday."

With its vast oil wealth funding the Arab world's biggest economy, the kingdom had for decades been able to fund massive spending with no taxes at all.

It only introduced VAT in 2018, as part of a push to reduce its dependence on crude revenues.

Then, seeking to shore up state finances battered by sliding oil prices and the coronavirus crisis, it announced in May that it would triple VAT and halt a cost-of-living monthly allowance to citizens.

The austerity push underscores how Saudi Arabia's once-lavish spending is becoming a thing of the past, with the erosion of the welfare system leaving a mostly young population to cope with reduced incomes and a lifestyle downgrade.

That could pile strain on a decades-old social contract whereby citizens were given generous subsidies and handouts in exchange for loyalty to the absolute monarchy.

The rising cost of living may prompt many to ask why state funds are being lavished on multi-billion-dollar projects and overseas assets, including the proposed purchase of English football club Newcastle United.

Shopping malls in the kingdom have drawn large crowds in recent days as retailers offered "pre-VAT sales" and discounts before the hike kicks in.

A gold shop in Riyadh told AFP it saw a 70 percent jump in sales in recent weeks, while a car dealership saw them tick up by 15 percent.

Once the new rate is in place, businesses are predicting depressed sales of everything from cars to cosmetics and home appliances.

Capital Economics forecast inflation will jump up to six percent year-on-year in July, from 1.1 percent in May, as a result.

"The government ended the country's lockdown (in June) and there are signs that economic activity has started to recover," Capital Economics said in a report.

"Nonetheless, we expect the recovery to be slow-going as fiscal austerity measures bite."

The kingdom also risks losing its edge against other Gulf states, including its principal ally the United Arab Emirates, which introduced VAT at the same time but has so far refrained from raising it beyond five percent.

"Saudi Arabia is taking massive risks with contractionary fiscal policies," said Tarek Fadlallah, chief executive officer of the Middle East unit of Nomura Asset Management.

But the kingdom has few choices as oil revenue declines.

Its finances have taken another blow as authorities massively scaled back this year's hajj pilgrimage, from 2.5 million pilgrims last year to around a thousand already inside the country, and suspended the lesser umrah because of coronavirus.

Together the rites rake in some $12 billion annually.

The International Monetary Fund warned the kingdom's GDP will shrink by 6.8 percent this year -- its worst performance since the 1980s oil glut.

The austerity drive would boost state coffers by 100 billion riyals ($26.6 billion), according to state media.

But the measures are unlikely to plug the kingdom's huge budget deficit.

The Saudi Jadwa Investment group forecasts the shortfall will rise to a record $112 billion this year.

Riyadh, Apr 8: Saudi Arabia's health minister has warned the number of COVID-19 cases in the country could reach 200,000 in coming weeks.

As of Tuesday, the kingdom registered a total of 2,795 coronavirus infections, including 41 deaths.

"Within the next few weeks, studies predict the number of infections will range from a minimum of 10,000 to a maximum of 200,000," health minister Tawfiq al-Rabiah was cited as saying by the official Saudi Press Agency on Tuesday.

On Monday, Saudi Arabia extended the duration of daily curfews in four governorates and five cities to 24 hours.

The kingdom imposed round-the-clock lockdowns in the capital Riyadh, Tabuk, Dammam, Dhahran and Hofuf, the interior ministry said on Twitter.

The same measures were also imposed on the governorates of Jeddah, Taif, Qatif and Khobar, the ministry added.

Authorities had already sealed off the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, barring people from entering and exiting as well as prohibiting movement between all provinces.

Last month, Saudi Arabia suspended the year-round "Umrah" pilgrimage over fears of the coronavirus pandemic spreading to Islam's holiest cities.

Authorities are yet to announce whether they will proceed with this year's Hajj, scheduled for the end of July. Last week, authorities urged Muslims to temporarily defer preparations for the annual pilgrimage.

Last year, about 2.5 million people travelled to Saudi Arabia to take part in the Hajj, which all Muslims must perform at least once in their lives if able.

The Arab world's biggest economy has also closed down cinemas, malls and restaurants and halted flights as it steps up efforts to contain the virus.

King Salman has warned of a "more difficult" fight ahead against the virus, as the kingdom faces the economic double blow of virus-led shutdowns and crashing oil prices