EC notice to AAP, 5 others for de-recognition

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

Kanpur, Jul 11: "The Uttar Pradesh administration has done the right thing by taking action against my son," said an old and feeble Ram Kumar Dubey, father of gangster Vikas Dubey.

The father said his son killed eight police officials and it was an unforgivable sin.

"Had he listened to us, his life would not have ended this way. Vikas never helped us in any way. Due to him, even our ancestral property was razed to the ground. He also killed eight policemen, which is an unforgivable sin. The administration has done the right thing. Had they not done so, tomorrow others would have acted similarly," Ram Kumar said.

"It is the chief minister's duty to protect every individual. The police is an extension of that. He attacked them which cannot be forgiven. I will not even take part in his cremation," he added.

Ram Kumar Dubey said that his only appeal to the government is to allow him entry to his ancestral property now.

Vikas Dubey was cremated at Bhairav Ghat in Kanpur. His wife, younger son and brother-in-law were present and no other member of his family attended the last rites.

Vikas Dubey was arrested by the police in Ujjain on Thursday morning. He was on the run for the last six days and had come to the city to offer prayers at a temple, where he was identified by a security guard.

He was killed in an encounter by the Uttar Pradesh Police earlier today after he "attempted to flee".

The gangster was the main accused in the encounter that took place in Bikru village in Chaubeypur area of Kanpur last week, in which a group of assailants opened fire on a police team, which had gone to arrest him.

Eight police personnel were killed in the encounter.

Vikas Dubey managed to escape after the incident. Uttar Pradesh police had launched a hunt and raised a bounty on him for Rs 5 lakh.

Feb 22: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is unlikely to accompany US President Donald Trump and his family members during their visit to the Taj Mahal in Agra on Monday, official sources said.

The US President will arrive in Ahmedabad at around noon on February 24 for a less that 36-hour visit to India. He will be accompanied by a high-level delegation including First Lady Melania Trump, the President's daughter Ivanka Trump, son-in-law Jared Kushner and a galaxy of top US officials.

After attending an event at Ahmedabad, the Trumps will travel to Agra on Monday afternoon to visit the Taj Mahal before arriving at the national capital for the main leg of the visit.

When asked about reports that Modi may accompany Trump to Agra, official sources said there was no such plan.

They said the visit to the Taj Mahal in Agra by the US President and his family members will afford them the opportunity to view the historical monument suitably. Therefore, no official engagements or presence of senior dignitaries from the Indian side is envisaged there, the sources said.