Economic outlook cloudy in FY20: RBI annual report

New Delhi, May 17: Following the COVID-19-induced economic disruptions, up to 135 million jobs could be lost and 120 million people might be pushed back into poverty in India, all of which will have a hit on consumer income, spending and savings, says a report.

According to a new report by international management consulting firm Arthur D Little, the worst of COVID-19's impact will be felt by India's most vulnerable in terms of job loss, poverty increase and reduced per-capita income, which in turn will result in a steep decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

"Given the continued rise of COVID-19 cases, we believe that a W-shaped recovery is the most likely scenario for India. This implies a GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY 2020-21 and GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in FY 2021-22," the report said.

India's COVID-19 tally has crossed 90,000 and the nationwide death toll has touched nearly 2,800 so far.

The report titled "India: Surmounting the economic challenges posed by COVID-19: A 10-point programme to revive and power India's post-COVID economy" said the 'collateral damage' of the forecasted GDP slowdown, will be felt most acutely in employment, poverty alleviation, per-capita income and overall nominal GDP.

"Unemployment may rise to 35 per cent from 7.6 per cent resulting in 136 million jobs lost and a total of 174 million unemployed. Poverty alleviation will receive a set-back, significantly changing the fortunes of many, putting 120 million people into poverty and 40 million into abject poverty," the report said.

"India is headed towards a W-shaped economic recovery with a potential GDP contraction of 10.8 per cent in FY21. An opportunity loss of USD 1 trillion is staring India in its face," said Barnik Chitran Maitra, lead author of the report and Managing Partner & CEO of Arthur D Little, India and South Asia.

Maitra further said "for its USD 5 trillion vision, a radical economic approach is needed, centred on an immediate stimulus and structural reforms. The Prime Minister's visionary 'Atma Nirbhar Bharat Abhiyan' is a good start to this new approach."

The report lauded the steps taken by the government and the Reserve Bank of India, but said a far more assertive approach may be required given the magnitude of the adverse economic output.

The report suggested a 10-point programme to accelerate the recovery which include strengthening the 'safety net' significantly for the most vulnerable, enable survival of small and medium businesses, restarting the rural economy and providing targeted assistance to at-risk sectors.

It further said the government should launch "Make in India 2.0" to capture global opportunities, build 'Modern India', accelerate Digital India and Innovation, strengthen global investment corridors with the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Japan and the UK, debottleneck land and labour and transform banking and financial markets in a bid to secure a sustainable economic future for 1.3 billion Indians. 

New Delhi, Feb 4: Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath on Monday accused Arvind Kejriwal of having a "partnership" with Pakistan and appealed to the people in Delhi to not vote for the AAP chief as it will make Pakistan happy.

Ramping up his attack on the Shaheen Bagh protest, Adityanath said that the protest against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) is merely an excuse for people to vent their anger against the scrapping of Article 370.

"You must have seen their partnership on 370. Arvind Kejriwal used to speak in the same voice as Imran Khan on Article 370. You must have heard it.

"Now when elections are taking place in Delhi, who is speaking in favour of Arvind Kejriwal? It is the ministers of Pakistan. They are aware that Kejriwal is feeding 'biryani to protesters at Shaheen Bagh'," he said, referring to Pakistan minister Fawad Chaudhry's tweet asking Indians to defeat Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Adityanath addressed three rallies on Monday in the national capital ahead of assembly elections.

"Will Pakistan decide who Indians should vote for. If voting for Kejriwal will make Pakistan happy, should it be done," he asked at a rally in Mehrauli.

Adityanath said his Delhi counterpart Kejriwal has become a "toy in the hands of anti-social and anti-India elements".

Addressing a rally in Vikaspuri in west Delhi, he said that Kejriwal is not bothered about key issues such as providing clean drinking water but is concerned about Shaheen Bagh, the anti-citizenship amendment act protest site.

At another rally in Uttam Nagar in west Delhi, Adityanath said Kejriwal has played with the emotions of the people of Delhi for the last five years.

"He obstructed the development of Delhi. And knowingly and unknowingly, he became a toy in the hands of anti-social and anti-India elements," Adityanath said.

The protest at Shaheen Bagh, he said, has disrupted traffic across the capital.

"A guest with an appointment to meet him at 9.30 am could only reach at 11. He told me he had left as early as 7 am but got stuck because of the traffic in Shaheen Bagh," he said.

The Uttar Pradesh chief minister also slammed Kejriwal for "sympathising" with elements who he said gave anti-India slogans in Jawaharlal Nehru University.

New Delhi, Mar 26: Despite repeated assurances by the Centre and state government of no shortage of food and essential services in Delhi, many daily wage earners have started fleeing the national capital on foot to return to their native villages in nearby Uttar Pradesh and other states because of the hardships being faced by them.
Most daily wage earners who are fleeing have complained that they are doing so because they will die of hunger due to lack of resources at their disposal.
"I am going to Azamgarh, my native place which is more than 800 kilometers from here. We have started walking towards our village. On the roads, if we get some vehicles then it will be all right otherwise we will continue on foot. I used to work in the construction sector but all work has stopped, we therefore have no other means to buy our rations. Atleast, food is guaranteed in our homes," Ghanshyam, a daily wage earner, told ANI here.
Rani, another daily wage earner, who was fleeing Delhi along with her family said, "Who would want to leave on foot, but what other options do we have. Our children will die of hunger, even if they are saved from the disease. That is why we are leaving."
While the government has been assuring that it will provide food and other essentials to the low-income groups, the people complained that they are yet to receive any help.
The departing of people has started despite repeated warnings by governments to prevent the influx of persons living in other states to curtail the spread of coronavirus.
Prince, who used to reside in Mongolpuri area of Delhi, said, "If we continue to stay the landlord will pester us for rent. The prices of all commodities are rising with each passing day, this way we will have nothing left to survive. We did not get any help from the government. I am, therefore, returning to Kasganj, which is close to 300 kilometres from Delhi. We will at least get food served twice a day in the village, nobody is offering us even water here."
Earlier on Tuesday, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal had announced Rs 5,000 for each construction worker under Construction Workers Welfare Board Fund.
Addressing a video conference here, he said, "The Delhi government will give Rs 5,000 to each construction worker as their livelihood has been affected due the outbreak of coronavirus."
He also said that the number of night shelters in the city has been increased and more food is being distributed to homeless people.
He also said that due to curfew, several people were not able to get food, and urged the public to send such people to the nearest shelters of the Delhi government, where food was being arranged.