Economic outlook cloudy in FY20: RBI annual report

Agencies

August 30, 2019

Mumbai, Aug 30: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Thursday that the overall economic outlook of the country appeared clouded for 2019-20 and advised to prioritise the revival of consumption and private investment and structural reforms.

"Overall, the outlook appears clouded as the Indian economy begins its course through 2019-20," the RBI said in its annual report released on Thursday.

The central bank also expressed concern over falling rural demand amidst some surge in indices.

"Rural demand, however, was affected by moderation in agricultural growth as reflected in tractors and two-wheelers sales. Indicators of urban demand revealed a mixed picture in contrast. Air passenger traffic recorded its lowest growth in the last five years.

"Passenger vehicles sales were the lowest in five years on account of increase in insurance costs, volatile fuel prices and lack of financing options due to the liquidity stress in the non-banking sector. The production of consumer non-durables slumped to its lowest level in the past three years," the report highlighted.

The central bank in its review said that external demand operated as a drag for the second successive year while deficit south-west monsoon and depleted reservoirs dented the performance of the agriculture sector.

The rate of gross domestic savings had increased marginally to 30.1 per cent of gross national disposable income (GNDI) in 2017-18 from declines in the previous two years.

The household financial savings -- the most important source of funds -- had increased by 0.3 percentage points of GNDI, though it had remained much lower than 7.3 per cent during 2011-16.

The rate of gross domestic investment in the Indian economy, measured by the ratio of gross capital formation (GCF) to GDP at current prices, had risen to a peak of 39.8 per cent in 2010-11 before a prolonged slowdown set in, taking it down to 30.9 per cent in 2016-17.

A modest recovery was seen in the following year. Although data on gross domestic investment are not yet available for 2018-19, movement in its constituents suggests that the uptick could not be sustained.

Growth in fixed investment collapsed to a 14-quarter low in Q4 of 2018-19 as production of capital goods registered a sharp contraction while imports nosedived in a coincident manner.

However, the industrial sector posted resilient growth, mainly driven by manufacturing in the first half, while the momentum in construction and financial services sustained the healthy growth of the overall services sector, the RBI said.

"Going forward, priority should be accorded to revive consumption and private investment while continuing with structural reforms," the RBI said.

On job creation, the RBI said that official estimates suggest more regularisation of employment in 2017-18 and the various initiatives undertaken by the government are expected to create avenues for employment.

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Low pressure over Arabian sea to intensify into ‘cyclonic storm’ soon, says IMD

Agencies

May 31,2020

New Delhi, May 31: A low pressure area formed over Arabian sea and Lakshadweep is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and reach coastal states of Maharashtra and Gujarat next week, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday.

Sunitha Devi, in charge of cyclones at IMD, said, "A low pressure area has formed over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian sea and Lakshadweep area. It is very likely to concentrate into a depression during the next 24 hours and intensify further into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours."

She added, "It is likely to move nearly northwards and reach near north Maharashtra and Gujarat coasts by 3rd June."

A low pressure area and a depression are the first two levels on the IMD's eight-category scale used to classify cyclones based on their intensity.

The weather bureau said that the sea condition will be very rough and advised fishermen not to venture into the sea till June 4.

It has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall over south coastal Maharashtra for June 2-4, on north coast on June 2-3 and in Gujarat, Daman and Diu and Dadar and Nagar Haveli on June 3-5.

IMD said that under the influence of likely formation of a low pressure system over Arabian Sea, conditions will become favourable from June 1 for onset of monsoon over Kerala.

The arrival date for monsoon in Kerala is around June 1 every year and in Maharashtra around June 10.

On Saturday, a private forecasting agency claimed that monsoon has already hit Kerala, but the assertions were quickly rebutted by the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

"The news about monsoon onset over Kerala in Social Media is not correct. Monsoon has not arrived over Kerala. The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge a"Stephen Hawking," saidAMadhavan Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.

Kuldeep Srivastava, the head of IMD's Regional Weather Forecasting Centre said that the formation of a low pressure system in Arabian sea and its movement towards Gujarat coast will bring moisture to Delhi-NCR and North West India from June 3.

Two storms are forming over the Arabian Sea, one lies off the African coast and is likely to move over Oman and Yemen, while the other is placed close to India.

The development comes almost ten days after 'Amphan' pummeled four districts of Bengal in the fiercest cyclone in the region in a century, that left 86 people dead and rendered ten million people homeless.

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According to IMD alert appeared in some newspapers on 31 May 2020 , a cyclonic storm is brewing in the Arabian Sea , which is likely to reach coastal districts of Gujarat and Maharashtra by 3 June. It is expected that the these States would take more care and appropriate strategy well in time to combat the likely danger to the coastal districts from cyclonic storm designated as ‘Nisarga’. In this context , it may be apt to refer readers to this Vedic astrology writer’s predictive alerts in article - “ Predictions for coming year 2020 by kushal kumar” - published last year 2019 on 10 October at theindiapost.com/articles/predictions-for-coming-year-2020-by-kushal-kumar/. The related text of the predictive alert reads as follows in the said article :-

“ The next three months from April to June 2020 , appears to be a period of time testing ‘patience’ and ‘ perseverance’ , introducing several parts of the country to worrisome concerns. Coastal States of India , particularly those in the southern part , may be called upon to take more care and appropriate strategy against likely cyclones , storms , floods , coming of danger via sea , landslide and damage to crops during April-June in 2020. Such dates of month of May as 6 , 7 , 13 to 16 , 25 and 26 may be watched with care. Similarly , the dates 3 , 4 , 11 to 13 , 21 , 22 and 26 in June 2020 may be watched with care. Coastal States /UTs such as Gujarat , some parts of Maharashtra ……………………………………look to be vulnerable. It may be apt for them to take necessary precautions during May-June , 2020”.

The aforesaid details suggest that the predictive alert of this writer published last year 2019 on 10 October , is coinciding with the alert of IMD appeared near about 31 May , 2020.

Kushal kumar ,

202- GH28 , Mansarovar Apartments ,

Sector 20 , Panchkula -134116 , Haryana.

1 June , 2020.

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Kozhikode airport not safe during rainy season, expert had warned nine years ago

News Network

August 8,2020

The Kozhikode International Airport located at Karipur is not safe for the landing of flights in rainy season, according to an air-safety expert, who had warned the aviation ministry and the civil aviation regulator about this in 2011.

The warning was particularly about the dangers of permitting passenger aircraft to land on runway 10 of the airport during rains and unfavourable wind conditions.

Nine years later, on August 7, 2020, the warning became a reality when an Air India Express pilots landed in tailwind conditions and the aircraft overshot the tabletop runway to drop off the end and crash.

“An aircraft landing on runway 10 in tailwind will experience poor braking action due to heavy rubber deposits … All such flights … are endangering the lives of all on board,’’ said Capt Mohan Ranganathan, in a letter sent on June 17, 2011 to then director general of civil aviation Bharat Bhushan and Nasim Zaidi, chairman of a civil aviation safety advisory committee, which was formed after the May 2010 Mangaluru air crash which killed 158 people.

“My warning issued after the Mangaluru crash was ignored. It is a table-top runway with a down slope. The buffer zone at the end of the runway is inadequate,” Capt Ranganathan said. Given the topography, he pointed out, the airport should have a buffer of 240m at the end of the runway, but it only has 90m (which the DGCA had approved). “Moreover, the space on either side of the runway is only 75m instead of the mandatory 100m,” he added.

Capt Ranganathan said there is no guideline for operations on a table-top runway when it is raining. “Runway 10 approach should not be permitted in view of the lack of runway end safety area (RESA) and the terrain beyond the end of the runway. RESA of 240m should be immediately introduced and runway length has to be reduced to make the operations safe,” his letter said.

If an aircraft is unable to stop within the runway, there is no RESA beyond the end. The ILS localiser antenna is housed on a concrete structure and the area beyond is a steep slope. “The Air India Express accident in Mangalore should have alerted AAI to make the runway conditions safe. We have brought up the issue of RESA during the initial Casac-sub group meetings. We had specifically mentioned that the declared distances for both runways have to be reduced in order to comply with ICAO Annex 14 requirement,” Capt Ranganathan said.

He said the condition of the runway strip was known to DGCA teams that have been conducting inspection and safety assessments. “Have they considered the danger involved? Did the DGCA or the airlines lay down any operational restrictions or special procedures?”

The letter also refers to Approach and Landing Accident Reduction (ALAR) training, which is supposed to be mandatory before every monsoon, but airlines don’t follow it, he said. “70% of accidents take place during approach and landing and that is why this training is essential,” he added.

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Fire breaks out at ESIC hospital in Noida

Agencies

January 9,2020

Noida, Jan 6: A fire broke out at the ESIC Hospital in Noida on Thursday morning and firefighting was underway, officials said.

The blaze broke out in the basement of the seven-storey hospital building located in Sector 24, a police official said.

Fire tenders were rushed to the spot after the Fire Department was alerted about it around 8 am, the official said.

After that, a search was done to see if anyone was trapped in the building, he said.

The cooling process is now underway.

He said the fire had engulfed the ground, first and second floors of the building, except the basement.

Police said they received information about fire at Kaveri printing press at 2:45 am, when the manager Yogesh called them. The press owners have been identified as Atul and Anuj Goyal, residents of Sukhdev Vihar, they said.

The man who died in the fire has been identified as Phool Dev, from Bihar, who used to work as a help there. Dev went inside the building in the night to sleep before the fire started and died due to suffocation, the fire department official said.

The body has been kept at Lal Bahadur Shastri Hospital and the post-mortem will be done once the family reaches here, police said.

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