Economic Slowdown Bottomed Out, Uptick From Here On: Chief Economic Adviser K V Subramanian

News Network
January 31, 2020

New Delhi, Jan 31: Chief Economic Adviser K V Subramanian on Friday said India's GDP is expected to grow at 6-6.5 per cent next fiscal as the economic slowdown has bottomed out.

As per the first advance estimates released by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), the country's economic growth is likely to hit an 11-year low of 5 per cent in the current fiscal ending March 2020.

The Economic Survey 2019-20, prepared by a team lead by Subramanian, has projected the GDP to expand in the range of 6-6.5 per cent during 2020-21.

The Indian economy has hit the bottom and it will see an uptick from here, he said in a media briefing post the Economic Survey.

Amidst a weak environment for global manufacturing, trade and demand, the Indian economy slowed down with GDP growth moderating to 4.8 per cent in the first half of 2019-20, lower than 6.2 per cent in H2 of 2018-19.

Based on NSO's first advance estimates of GDP growth for 2019-20 at 5 per cent, an uptick in GDP growth is expected in the second half of the fiscal, it said.

According to it, the uptick in second half of 2019-20 would be mainly due to ten positive factors like picking up of Nifty India Consumption Index for the first time this year, an upbeat secondary market, higher FDI flows, build-up of demand pressure, positive outlook for rural consumption, rebound of industrial activity, steady improvement in manufacturing, growth in merchandise exports, higher build-up of foreign exchange reserves and positive growth rate of GST revenue collection.

The survey also emphasised that merger of public sector banks may increase the financial strength of the merged entities, lower the risk aversion and result in lowering of lending rates.

Further, as the implementation of GST further settles down, the increased unification of the domestic market may reduce business costs and facilitate fresh investment.

Reforms in land and labour market may further reduce business costs, said the survey, presented a day before Sitharaman's Union Budget 2020-21.

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News Network
February 17,2020

Feb 17: Chinese authorities on Monday reported a slight upturn in new virus cases and 105 more deaths for a total of 1,770 since the outbreak began two months ago.

The 2,048 new cases followed three days of declines but was up by just 39 cases from the previous day’s figure. Another 10,844 people have recovered from COVID-19, a disease caused by the new coronavirus, and have been discharged from hospitals, according to Monday’s figures.

The update followed the publication late Saturday in China’s official media of a recent speech by President Xi Jinping in which he indicated for the first time that he had led the response to the outbreak from early in the crisis. While the reports were an apparent attempt to demonstrate the Communist Party leadership acted decisively from the start, it also opened Xi up to criticism over why the public was not alerted sooner.

In his speech, Xi said he gave instructions on fighting the virus on Jan. 7 and ordered the shutdown of the most-affected cities that began on Jan. 23.

The disclosure of his speech indicates top leaders knew about the outbreak’s potential severity at least two weeks before such dangers were made known to the public. It was not until late January that officials said the virus can spread between humans and public alarm began to rise.

New cases in other countries are raising growing concerns about containment of the virus.

Taiwan on Sunday reported its first death from COVID-19, the fifth fatality outside of mainland China. Taiwan’s Central News Agency, citing health minister Chen Shih-chung, said the man who died was in his 60s and had not traveled overseas recently and had no known contact with virus patients.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe convened an experts meeting to discuss containment measures in his country, where more than a dozen cases have emerged in the past few days without any obvious link to China.

“The situation surrounding this virus is changing by the minute,” Abe said.

Japanese Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said the country is “entering into a phase that is different from before,” requiring new steps to stop the spread of the virus.

Japan now has 413 confirmed cases, including 355 from a quarantined cruise ship, and one death from the virus. Its total is the highest number of cases among about two dozen countries outside of China where the illness has spread.

Hundreds of Americans from the cruise ship took charter flights home, as Japan announced another 70 infections had been confirmed on the Diamond Princess. Canada, Hong Kong and Italy were planning similar flights.

The 300 or so Americans flying on U.S.-government chartered aircraft back to the U.S. will face another 14-day quarantine at Travis Air Force Base in California and Lackland Air Force Base in Texas. The U.S. Embassy said the departure was offered because people on the ship were at a high risk of exposure to the virus. People with symptoms were banned from the flights.

About 255 Canadians and 330 Hong Kong residents are on board the ship or undergoing treatment in Japanese hospitals. There are also 35 Italians, of which 25 are crew members, including the captain.

In China’s Hubei province, where the outbreak began in December, all vehicle traffic will be banned in another containment measure. It expands a vehicle ban in the provincial capital, Wuhan, where public transportation, trains and planes have been halted for weeks.

Exceptions were being made for vehicles involved in epidemic prevention and transporting daily necessities.

Hubei has built new hospitals with thousands of patient beds and China has sent thousands of military medical personnel to staff the new facilities and help the overburdened health care system.

Last Thursday, Hubei changed how it recognized COVID-19 cases, accepting a doctor’s diagnosis rather than waiting for confirmed laboratory test results, in order to treat patients faster. The tally spiked by more than 15,000 cases under the new method.

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News Network
January 1,2020

Jan 1: The ban on the practice of instant triple talaq, making it a penal offence and the increase in the strength of Supreme Court judges were two of the major achievements of the law ministry in 2019.

In July, Parliament gave its nod to The Muslim Women (Protection of Rights on Marriage) Bill, 2019. The new law makes talaq-e-biddat or any other similar form of talaq having the effect of instantaneous and irrevocable divorce pronounced by a Muslim husband void and illegal.

It makes it illegal to pronounce talaq three times in spoken, written or through SMS or WhatsApp or any other electronic chat in one sitting.

According to the new law, any Muslim who pronounces the illegal form of talaq upon his wife shall be punished with imprisonment for a term which may extend to three years, and shall also be liable to fine.

During the year, four new judges were appointed to the Supreme Court in September, taking its strength to 34, the highest-ever.

However, vacancies in high courts and lower courts are on the rise and convincing state governments and the 25 high courts to come on board to create an all-India judicial service to recruit judges for the subordinate courts tops the agenda of the Law Ministry in 2020.

Besides creating a consensus on setting up the All-India Judicial Services, the ministry will also have to focus on filling up vacancies in the high court. On an average, the vacancies stood at 400 throughout this year.

With more than 5,000 positions of judicial officers in district and subordinate courts lying vacant, the Law Ministry has pitched for setting up all-India judicial services.

The sanctioned strength of the judicial officers in district and subordinate courts was 22,644. The number of judicial officers in position and vacant posts is 17,509 and 5,135, respectively.

The government has proposed that while states and high courts can recruit judicial officers, the Union Public Service Commission (UPSC) can hold pan-India entrance tests.

The ministry has made it clear that such services would not encroach on the powers of the states.

As of now, the selection and appointment of judges in subordinate courts is the responsibility of the high courts and state governments concerned.

The Narendra Modi government has given a fresh push to the long-pending proposal to set up the new service to have a separate cadre for the lower judiciary in the country.

But there is a divergence of opinion among state governments and respective high courts on the constitution of the All India Judicial Service (AIJS).

One of the problems cited is that since several states have used powers under Code of Criminal Procedure (CrPC) and Code of Civil Procedure (CPC) to declare that the local language would be used in lower courts even for writing orders, a person say selected from Tamil Nadu may find it difficult to hold proceedings in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

The other point of opposition is that an all India service may hamper the career progression of state judicial services officers.

Another key issue the ministry has to handle in 2020 is vacancies in the 25 high courts.

Throughout 2019, on an average, the high courts faced a shortage of 400 judges.

According to Law Ministry data, as on September 1, the high courts had 414 vacant positions as compared to the sanctioned strength of 1,079 judges. The figure was 409 in August and 403 in July, as per the data.

A three-member Supreme Court collegium recommends the names of candidates for appointment as high court judges. In case of appointments to the Supreme Court, the collegium consists of five top judges of the top court.

High court collegiums shortlist candidates for their respective high courts and send the names to the law ministry.

The ministry, along with background check reports by the Intelligence Bureau, forwards it to the Supreme Court collegium for a final call.

The government has maintained that appointment of judges in the high courts is a "continuous collaborative process" between the Executive and the Judiciary, as it requires consultation and approval from various Constitutional authorities.

Vacancies keep arising on account of retirement, resignation or elevation of judges and increase in judges' strength. In June last year, the vacancy position stood at 399, while it was 396 in May.

In April, 399 posts of judges were vacant, while the figure was 394 in March. The vacancy position in February stood at 400 and in January, it was 392, according to the data collated by the Department of Justice.

Over 43 lakh cases are pending in the 25 high courts.

Another priority would be the finalisation of the memorandum of the procedure to guide the appointment and transfer of the Supreme Court and high court judges. The issue had now been pending for over two years now with the SC collegium and the government failing to reach a consensus.

Successive governments have also been working on making India a hub of international arbitration. It has taken several steps to change laws dealing with commercial disputes.

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News Network
April 7,2020

New Delhi, April 7: The government continued to take steps to contain the spread of coronavirus including a strategy of cluster containment as the cases continued to rise and Tuesday saw single-day largest jump of 722 positive cases.

The total number of positive cases reached 4,789 on Tuesday, the 14th day of lockdown.

According to the latest update of the Health Ministry, there are 4,312 active cases, 352 persons have been cured or discharged (one migrated) and 124 have died.

Maharashtra has the largest number of positive cases at 868 and also accounts for the largest number of deaths at 48. Tamil Nadu has 621 confirmed cases.

Thirteen persons have died in Madhya Pradesh and the same number in Gujarat.
The 21-day lockdown was announced on March 24 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

At the regular media briefing at 4 pm, Lav Aggarwal, Joint Secretary in the Health Ministry, said that the government is adopting a strategy for cluster containment.

"This strategy is producing positive results, especially in Agra, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Pathanamthitta, Bhilwara and East Delhi," he said.

Aggarwal said that a recent study by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has shown that a person infected with coronavirus can infect 406 others in just 30 days if he does not follow the lockdown and social distancing norms.

He said no decision has been taken on extending the lockdown and urged against any speculation.

He said latest technology was being used for management of COVID-19 and there was real-time tracking of ambulances.

The official said the dedicated facilities for COVID-19 are divided into three parts -- COVID Care Centre, Dedicated COVID Health Centre and Dedicated COVID Hospitals.

He said that COVID Care Centres were for treating mild, very mild and likely to be COVID-19 patients. Hostels, hotels, school, and stadium can be used for this. "We have asked states to map it with COVID Care Hospitals and COVID Health Centre so that patients can be shifted if needed," he said.

The official said that COVID Health Centres were for treating COVID-19 patients of clinically moderate level of seriousness. "For this, fully functional hospitals will be used. A dedicated block of a fully functional hospital can also be used for this. The hospitals must have beds with oxygen support," he said.

Aggarwal said that dedicated COVID Hospitals were meant for severe and critical cases and these must be fully-equipped with ICUs and ventilators.
New coronavirus cases were reported on Tuesday from several states including Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu.

The Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change has issued an advisory about containing coronavirus in national parks, sanctuaries and tiger reserves in view of the spread of COVID-19 and a report about tiger being infected in New York. The Central Zoo Authority has also advised zoos in India to remain on high alert.

Here's a quick read on the COVID-19 related updates

1. The Indian Railways has prepared 40,000 isolation beds in 2,500 coaches and this work is ongoing in 133 locations across the country.

2. Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said he was willing to extend the lockdown in the state after the completion of 21-day period to save lives.

3. The government is monitoring the movement of pharmaceuticals closely and the movement of pharmaceuticals through trucks has stabilised in the country.

4. Under the 'Lifeline Udan' initiative, 152 flights have transported over 200 tonnes of cargo till April 6.

5. According to ICMR, testing of 1,07,006 people has been carried out till date and 136 government labs and 59 private labs are conducting tests in the country.

6. The Home Ministry said that the status of essential goods and services was by and large satisfactory in the country. Home Minister Amit Shah has issued directives to the states to ensure there is no hoarding or black marketing in any corner of the country.

7. The number of corona positive cases in Uttar Pradesh has reached 314. Of these, 168 patients are connected to Tablighi Jamaat, state Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath said on Tuesday.

8. The government has lifted restrictions on export of 24 pharmaceutical ingredients and medicines made from them.

9. Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh said the Group of Ministers had "an extensive discussion on the prevailing situation post the lockdown" in the country. They also appreciated the Cabinet's decision to cut MP's salary for a year.

10. Central Zoo Authority has advised zoos in the country to remain on highest alertness, watch animals on 24X7 basis, using CCTV for any abnormal behavior or symptoms.

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