Economy in crisis: India’s growth may slow down further to 5.7% in Q1, says report

Agencies
August 21, 2019

Mumbai, Aug 21: India's economic growth is likely to slow down further to 5.7 per cent in the April-June quarter of this year due to low consumption, weak investments and an under-performing service sector, said a Nomura report. The economy, however, is expected to see some recovery in the July-September quarter, the report added.

It attributed the slowdown to the ongoing crisis in shadow banks, which were funding the consumption drive before liquidity crisis hit them hard last September, as well as weakening global growth and the resultant demand slump.

"The Indian economy is likely to slow down further to 5.7 per cent in April-June from a five-year low of 5.8 per cent in January-March," Nomura analysts Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi said in their client note

"High-frequency indicators continue to show familiar pain points -- a deep contraction in consumption, weak investment, a slowing external sector and an under-performing services sector," they said.

"The growth momentum is likely to pick up in the September quarter to 6.4 per cent and go further to 6.7 per cent in the three months after that," said Nomura citing data from its proprietary tools. "We will watch coming data prints to see whether they confirm or negate the sustainability of the turnaround in the growth cycle," it added.

But the brokerage firm also said the industry and investment indicators are relatively stable. "We believe the GDP is yet to bottom out, and expect it to moderate to 5.7 per cent in the June quarter, down from 5.8 per cent in the March quarter," the note said.

The report added that some indicators were showing early signs of bottoming out. The July data shows improvement in 53 per cent of the indicators as compared to 31 per cent in June, the report noted.

Nomura's Composite Leading Index (CLI) for Q3 (July-September) has ticked marginally higher to 99.9 from 99.8 in Q2, led by higher industrial production growth, an improvement in visitor arrivals growth, equity markets and lower policy rates.

"While the concurrent state of the economy remains a concern, nascent signs of green shoots and positive performance of leading indicators provide some signs that a recovery may be slowly materialising," said the Nomura report.

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Agencies
June 6,2020

Mumbai, Jun 6: Republic TV Editor-in-Chief Arnab Goswami faces a new complaint, this time under the Cable Televisions Network (Regulation) Act, 1995, for allegedly running the television channel "to create communal hatred, religious polarisation and threatening national integrity".

Social activist Nilesh Navlakha last month lodged a criminal complaint with the Commissioner of Police, Pune, through his lawyer Asim Sarode, under Section 2 of the Act.

"We have narrated six prominent, recent debate shows conducted by Goswami in which his arguments and words used were communal in nature which he kept repeating in his shows. The words and tonality are intended to promote communal attitudes and news is based on religious innuendos and half-truths," Sarode contended.

This leads to propaganda based on hatred, religious polarization and communal divide, said Navlakha in a statement.

He further said that the misuse of freedom of expression by Goswami and his channel posed a serious threat before the independent media as it violates the freedom of expression of the viewers, as it is the viewers' right to get correct, complete and true information.

Elaborating about Goswami's behaviour, Navlakha said that he has created what is termed 'Impulse Control Disorder' in psychiatry.
Sarode said: "Intermittent Explosive Disorder is a kind of 'impulse control disorder' which involves sudden episodes of impulsive, aggressive, violent behaviour or angry verbal outbursts in which you react grossly out of proportion to the situation."

They said that there are some more media persons displaying such tendencies in Hindi and English journalism, showing whatever is convenient and blow it out of proportion to give meanings which are out-of-context and disrupts the fabric of democracy while not fitting into journalism's ethics.

The complaint also alleged that Goswami and his channel are actually into "brainwashing" the viewers in a way that they will get converted into haters of some communities and terror for some religions.

"This is not less than running an organised crime syndicate of making the human minds to follow a fanatic terrorist thought process. When WhatsApp group admins are being booked under the law, then why the CTNRA provisions are not being invoked against such tendencies," Sarode asked.

In the complaint, it is pointed out how eminent persons have walked out of Goswami's shows because of his name-calling tactics, like labelling cricketer Sachin Tendulkar "anti-national" in one of his shows.

Navlakha and Sarode claimed that Goswami has violated the Programme Code under the CTNRA, the channel has indicated it is against sovereignty, integrity and security as also against public order, decency and morality, making it a serious issue and a cognizable offence.

It urged the Pune police chief to take suitable action against the wrongs committed to disturb the peace, law and order in society and book Goswami under the CTNRA Section's 16, which attracts a jail term of two years plus fine.

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News Network
June 9,2020

Jun 9: Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants all 1.3 billion Indians to be “vocal for local” — meaning, to not just use domestically made products but also to promote them. As an overseas citizen living in Hong Kong, I’m doing my bit by very vocally demanding Indian mangoes on every trip to the grocery. But half the summer is gone, and not a single slice so far.

My loss is due to India’s COVID-19 lockdown, which has severely pinched logistics, a perennial challenge in the huge, infrastructure-starved country. But more worrying than the disruption is the fruity political response to it. Rather than being a wake-up call for fixing supply chains, the pandemic seems to be putting India on an isolationist course. Why?

Granted that the liberal view that trade is good and autarky bad isn’t exactly fashionable anywhere right now. What makes India’s lurch troublesome is that the pace and direction of economic nationalism may be set by domestic business interests. The Indian liberals, many of whom are Western-trained academics, authors and — at least until a few years ago — policy makers, want a more competitive economy. They will be powerless to prevent the slide.

Modi’s call for a self-reliant India has been echoed by Home Minister Amit Shah, the cabinet’s unofficial No. 2, in a television interview. If Indians don’t buy foreign-made goods, the economy will see a jump, he said. The strategy — although it’s too nebulous yet to call it that — has a geopolitical element. A military standoff with China is under way, apparently triggered by India’s completion of a road and bridge near the common border in the tense Himalayan region of Ladakh. It’s very expensive to fight even a limited war there. With India’s economy flattened by COVID, New Delhi may be looking for ways to restore the status quo and send Beijing a signal.

Economic boycotts, such as Chinese consumers’ rejection of Japanese goods over territorial disputes in the East China Sea, are well understood as statecraft. In these times, it’s not even necessary to name an enemy. An undercurrent of popular anger against China, the source of both the virus and India’s biggest bilateral trade deficit, is supposed to do the job. But is it ever that easy?

A hastily introduced policy to stock only local goods in police and paramilitary canteens became a farcical exercise after the list of banned items ended up including products by the local units of Colgate-Palmolive Co., Nestle SA, and Unilever NV, which have had significant Indian operations for between 60 and 90 years, as well as Dabur India Ltd., a New Delhi-based maker of Ayurveda brands. The since-withdrawn list demonstrates the practical difficulty of bureaucrats trying to find things in a globalized world that are 100% indigenous.

Free-trade champions fret that the prime minister, whom they saw as being on their side six years ago, is acting against their advice to dismantle statist controls on land, labor and capital to help make the country more competitive. Engage with the world more, not less, they caution. But Modi also has to satisfy the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the umbrella Hindu organisation that gets him votes. Its backbone of small traders, builders and businessmen — the RSS admits only men — was losing patience with the anemic economy even before the pandemic. Now, they’re in deep trouble, because India’s broken financial system won’t deliver even state-guaranteed loans to them.

The U.S.-China tensions — over trade, intellectual property, COVID responsibility and Hong Kong’s autonomy — offer a perfect backdrop. A dire domestic economy and trouble at the border provide the foreground. Big business will dial economic nationalism up and down to hit a trifecta of goals: Block competition from the People's Republic; make Western rivals fall in line and do joint ventures; and tap deep overseas capital markets. The first goal is being achieved with newly placed restrictions on investment from any country that shares a land border with India. The second aim is to be realized by corporate lobbying to influence India's whimsical economic policies. As for the third objective, with the regulatory environment becoming tougher for U.S.-listed Chinese companies like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., an opportunity may open up for Indian firms.

All this may bring India Shenzhen-style enclaves of manufacturing and trade, but it will concentrate economic power in fewer hands, something that worries liberals. They’re moved by the suffering of India’s low-wage workers, who have borne the brunt of the COVID shutdown. But when their vision of a more just society and fairer income distribution prompts them to make common cause with the ideological Left, they’re quickly repelled by the Marxist voodoo that all cash, property, bonds and real estate held by citizens or within the nation “must be treated as national resources available during this crisis.” Who will invest in a country that does that instead of just printing money?

At the same time, when liberals look to the business class, they see a sudden swelling of support for ideas like a universal basic income. They wonder if this isn’t a ploy by industry to outsource part of the cost of labor to the taxpayer. Slogans like Modi’s vocal-for-local stir the pot and thicken the confusion. The value-conscious Indian consumer couldn’t give two hoots for calls to buy Indian, but large firms will know how to exploit economic nationalism. One day soon, I’ll get my mangoes — from them.

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Agencies
July 16,2020

New Delhi, Jul 16: A group of 174 Indian nationals, including seven minors, has filed a lawsuit against the recent presidential proclamation on H-1B that would prevent them from entering the United States or a visa would not be issued to them.

Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson at the US District Court in the District of Columbia issued summonses on Wednesday to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and acting Secretary of Homeland Security Chad F Wolf, along with Labor Secretary Eugene Scalia.

The lawsuit was filed in the US District Court on Tuesday.

"The proclamation 10052's H-1B/H-4 visa ban hurts the United States' economy, separates families and defies the Congress. While the two former points render it unseemly, the latter point renders it unlawful," said the lawsuit filed by lawyer Wasden Banias on behalf of the 174 Indian nationals.

The lawsuit seeks an order declaring the presidential proclamation restriction on issuing new H-1B or H4 visas or admitting new H-1B or H-4 visa holders as unlawful. It also urges the court to compel the Department of State to issue decisions on pending requests for H-1B and H-4 visas.

In his presidential proclamation on June 22, Trump temporarily suspended issuing of H-1B work visas till the end of the year.

"In the administration of our nation's immigration system, we must remain mindful of the impact of foreign workers on the United States labor market, particularly in the current extraordinary environment of high domestic unemployment and depressed demand for labor," said the proclamation issued by Trump.

In his proclamation, Trump said the overall unemployment rate in the United States nearly quadrupled between February and May of 2020 -- producing some of the most extreme unemployment ever recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

While the May rate of 13.3 per cent reflects a marked decline from April, millions of Americans remain out of work.

The proclamation also extends till year-end his previous executive order that had banned issuance of new green cards of lawful permanent residency. Green Card holders, once admitted pursuant to immigrant visas, are granted "open-market" employment authorisation documents, allowing them immediate eligibility to compete for almost any job in any sector of the economy, Trump said.

Forbes, which first reported the lawsuit filed by the Indian nationals, said the complaint points out that the Congress specified the rules under which H-1B visa holders could work in the US and balanced the interests of US workers and employers.

"The complaint seeks to protect H-1B professionals, including those who have passed the labor certification process and possess approved immigrant petitions. Such individuals are waiting for their priority date to obtain permanent residence, a wait that can take many years for Indian nationals," Forbes reported.

Meanwhile, several lawmakers urged Scalia on Tuesday to reverse the work visa ban.

"Throughout this administration, the president has continued to lament the alleged abuses of the immigration system while failing to address the systemic problems that have persisted and allowed businesses and employers to exploit and underpay immigrant workers, guest workers and American workers," the lawmakers wrote.

"This misguided attempt by the president to scapegoat immigrants for policy failures during the pandemic not only serves to hurt immigrants, but dismisses the true problem of a broken work visa program that is in desperate need of reform," said the letter, which among others was signed by Congressmen Joaquin Castro, Chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus; Bobby Scott, Chair of the Education and Labor Committee; Karen Bass, Chair of the Congressional Black Caucus; Judy Chu, Ra l Grijalva, Vicente Gonzalez, Yvette Clarke and Linda S nchez.

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