Economy to grow at 7-7.5 pc in 2016-17, 7.6 pc in current yr

February 26, 2016

New Delhi, Feb 26: Ahead of the Union Budget, the Economic Survey today termed external environment as challenging but projected a 7-7.5 per cent GDP growth rate in the next fiscal which could accelerate to eight per cent in a couple of years.

EconomyThe Economic Survey for 2015-16, which was tabled in Parliament today, also made a case for carrying forward the reform process to achieve macro-economic stability.

Inspite of challenges and lower than projected GDP growth rate during 2015-16, "the fiscal deficit target of 3.9 per cent of GDP seems achievable."

After a 7.2 per cent economic growth in 2014-15, it said the expansion in economy will be 7.6 per cent in the current fiscal, the fastest in the world.

However, it cautioned that if the world economy remained weak, India's growth will face considerable headwinds.

On the domestic side, two factors can boost consumption, increased spending from higher wages and allowances of government workers if the 7th Pay Commission is implemented and return of normal monsoon.

At the same time, the Survey enumerated three downside risks - turmoil in global economy could worsen the outlook of exports, contrary to expectations oil price rise would increase the drag from consumption and the most serious risk is the combination of these two factors.

"One of the most critical short-term challenges confronting the Indian economy is the twin balance sheet problem - the impaired financial positions of the public sector banks and some corporate houses. The twin balance sheet challenge is the major impediment to private investment and a full-fledged economic recovery," the Survey said.

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June 23,2020

Jun 23: The U.S. government on Monday restricted charter flights from India, accusing the nation of "unfair and discriminatory practices" by violating a treaty governing aviation between the two countries.

Air India Ltd. has been making flights to repatriate its citizens during the travel disruptions caused by the Covid-19 outbreak, but also has been selling tickets to the public, the Transportation Department alleged.

At the same time, U.S. airlines have been prohibited from flying to India by aviation regulators there, the DOT said in its order. The situation "creates a competitive disadvantage for U.S. carriers," the agency said in a press release.

Air India is advertising a schedule that is more than half of pre-virus operations, the department said. "The charters go beyond true repatriations, and it appears that Air India may be using repatriation charters as a way of circumventing" that nation's flight restrictions, the U.S. agency said.

The order becomes effective in 30 days, the department said.

Indian airlines must apply to the DOT for authorization before conducting charter flights so that it can scrutinize them more closely, it said. The department will reconsider the restrictions once India lifts restrictions on U.S. carriers.

The action against India follows weeks of DOT restrictions against Chinese airlines after the U.S. agency accused that nation of unfairly banning American carriers in the wake of the virus. On June 15, the U.S. announced it would agree to allow four flights a week from China after it allowed the same number by U.S. carriers.

Attempts to reach Air India and the Indian embassy in Washington after business hours were unsuccessful.

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June 25,2020

India has jumped past 4.5 lakh coronavirus cases and 14,476 people have succumbed to the viral infection so far. In this backdrop, speaking to IANS in an exclusive interview, AIIMS Director Randeep Guleria said India is also vulnerable to second wave of coronavirus and people should continue to follow social distancing, wearing mask and other precautions, after cases begin to decline.

He added that in order to contain the outbreak of Covid-19, a limited lockdown in hotspots, where volume of cases is very high, may be considered along with a micro-plan to prevent leakage of cases from these areas to other non-containment areas. Excerpts of the interview are below:

Q: Reports say China and South Korea are witnessing a second wave of coronavirus infection, what is this second wave, is India also vulnerable to this?

A: When cases come down significantly, people tend to drop their guard against the viral infection, and this leads to the second wave (which means a sudden increase in the number of cases). After cases begin to decline, people should continue to follow the precautions -- continue to maintain social distancing and wear masks regularly. See what happened in Singapore, it was struck by a second wave of coronavirus. Look, what happened in the 1918 pandemic, people dropped their guard and the second wave of viral infection struck back. If people do not follow social distancing then the spike in cases is apparent. We need to take these precautions at least for one year. India is also vulnerable to this second wave.

Q: If Covid-19 cases continue to rise rapidly, do you think we need another lockdown in areas where volume of cases are very high?

A: A large volume of cases is concentrated in specific areas like hotspots, and in order to maintain things in order, we may need a limited lockdown in these areas. This should be followed by a micro-plan which entails extensive testing of people and also extensive contact tracing of people who have got in touch with positive people. Need to ensure there is no leakage of cases from these areas. People from these areas should not mix with others in non-containment areas. This will aid in containing the outbreak of the virus. People who have developed symptoms should get themselves tested, especially in the containment areas.

Q: With more than 4.5 lakh cases and close to 14,500 deaths, do you think India has reached its peak and a decline in cases is prominent?

A: The cases will continue to increase for some time. The doubling time of cases has also increased. But, the cases will also begin to flatten. Though, it is difficult to give an exact time period in this viral infection, it seems, the growth in cases will flatten in the end of July or beginning of August. A decline will come to this viral infection, but it does not mean that people should drop their guard. As a measure, we need to decrease community participation and citizens should continue to follow social distancing. People should get themselves tested. All these efforts will help in preventing people from contracting this virus. These precautions will also prevent us from the second wave, and we must continue to take precautions. The virus has not gone away, it is still lurking.

Q: India has crossed the 4.5 lakh coronavirus cases so far, although our recovery rate is good, but still 10,000 to 15,000 cases are reported daily. Why do cases continue to spiral, what is the reason?

A: We have to remember a few things -- the bulk of cases are in 10 cities, nearly 70 per cent, and if we take into account cases per million population, the number is not very high, as compared with countries including countries in Europe. Many European countries put together still do not add up to the Indian population. Do not compare India to countries like Italy, Spain etc. We need to focus on hotspots, which contribute to between 70 -80 per cent of cases, and we have to identify cases in these areas at an early stage. The population density is very high in these cities. People in lower socio-economic status are highly vulnerable to the viral infection, as many live together in small spaces and there is a lot of mixing of people happening there. Look at the market places, people are not following social distancing and not wearing masks. In fact, many are in close vicinity of each other.

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April 9,2020

New Delhi, Apr 9: Kerala opposition coalition United Democratic Front on Thursday submitted a roadmap to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for staggered lifting of ongoing lockdown due to COVID-19 pandemic.

The coalition led by leader of opposition Ramesh Chennithala has given a set of recommendations to Modi in this regard, which include those made by an expert committee headed by deputy leader of opposition M K Muneer.

The committee was set up to suggest measures to be taken by the government for smooth transition from lockdown to normalcy.

It listed an eight-point exit strategy for removing lockdown in a staggered approach at a district level, with emphasis on hotspots to avoid further spread of virus and ensure smooth restart of economy.

This approach is tuned to the unique needs of each district and all the districts should also be categorised as per their risk levels, the report said.

The report has also been submitted to chief ministers of all states, former prime minister Manmohan Singh, Congress president Sonia Gandhi, senior Congress leader Rahul Gandhi among others.

The committee recommended that COVID-19 rapid testing must be enhanced across the country and the testing target be widened to 500 tests per one lakh population.

"A step-by-step approach is necessary for each sector along with conditions that need to be considered for each sector," the report said.

"There is a need for a comprehensive economic stimulus package in addition to the ones already announced after considering all the industries," it added.

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