Economy weakest in 6 years; credit growth at 2 year low

Agencies
October 17, 2019

Mumbai, Oct 17: Credit growth at Indian banks has dropped to its lowest level in nearly two years, the latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data shows, as slowing domestic consumption weighs on demand.

This adds to the challenges facing Narendra Modi as he begins his second term as prime minister with India's economy at its weakest levels in six years.

"The slowdown in credit growth this time is a result of both reduced demand and supply," Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings, said.

Lending growth by banks had nearly halved to 8.8% at the end-September from the start of the year.

The RBI data includes all banks in India, which is dominated by state-run lenders Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank and Union Bank of India as well as private ones such as HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank .

While retail lending has driven growth, banks are taking a more cautious approach on some consumer loans.

"In certain retail loans we're seeing customers delaying the payments by a few days over the due date," said the head of consumer banking segment of a private bank, adding that this does not bode well when corporate lending has plunged.

A report last month by India Ratings predicts "further moderation" retail lending in 2020 "given the consumption slowdown across segments including housing and auto".

"Even the unsecured loans, which include credit cards, education loans and other personal loans have seen a moderation in growth," the report said.

India's lending problems have been compounded by a drying up of liquidity in the shadow banking sector last year after the collapse of infrastructure lending group IL&FS.

While some major non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) have been going slow on lending, others stopped completely.

However, banks have not used this opportunity to win market share from NBFCs, which accounted for 30% of auto loans and more than 40% of home loans until the end of last year.

The weak growth in lending comes at a time when banks have been cutting interest rates and making it cheaper to borrow.

So far in 2019, the RBI has reduced the repo rate by 135 basis points. Even though banks have not matched this, the pace of cuts has picked up in the last few months.

A high credit-deposit ratio has been one of the key reasons why banks have struggled to cut interest rates. But with credit growth falling faster than deposit growth, banks may have a bit more room to transmit rate cuts.

A credit-deposit ratio above 75% indicates pressure on banks' resources as they have to set aside funds to maintain a cash reserve ratio of 4% and a statutory liquidity ratio of 18.5%.

In an attempt to push banks to pass rate cuts on to their customers, the RBI has required them to link all loans to an external benchmark such as the repo rate since the start of this month. While this is expected to push rates down, economists are not sure this will help spur credit demand.

"Credit growth is expected to remain sub 10%," Sabnavis said.

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News Network
June 17,2020

New Delhi, Jun 17: With an increase of 10,974 new cases and 2,003 deaths in the last 24 hours, India's COVID-19 count reached 3,54,065 on Wednesday while the toll due to the virus stands at 11,903.

This includes 1,55,227 active cases and 1,86,935 cured, discharged and migrated patients, according to the Union Health Ministry.

While the spike in the number of cases has stayed below the 11-thousand mark, the death toll has increased manifold today as compared to the 380 death reported on Tuesday.

Maharashtra with 1,13,445 cases continues to be the worst-affected state in the country with 50,057 active cases while 57,851 patients have been cured and discharged in the state so far. The toll due to COVID-19 has crossed the five thousand mark and reached 5,537 in the state.

It is followed by Tamil Nadu with 48,019 and the national capital with 44,688 confirmed cases.

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News Network
March 30,2020

Kochi, Mar 30: Kerala High Court on Monday granted interim bail to the under-trial prisoners and remanded accused in the state till April 30 in view of the lockdown imposed to prevent the spread of coronavirus.

The court said that the accused should report to the local police station immediately after getting bail. Those released on bail must strictly follow the lockdown instructions, the High Court said.

"Those who have been convicted of imprisonment for less than seven years will get bail. Prison Superintendents will release the prisoners who are eligible. But regular offenders are not entitled to get bail," the court said.

After the bail period, the accused should appear in the respective trial courts, where a decision will be taken on their bail by the respective trial courts.

The Supreme Court had last week asked all state governments to release undertrial prisoners, who are facing charges attracting less than seven years imprisonment, to reduce overcrowding of jails amid the ongoing coronavirus scare.

So far, 194 confirmed cases of coronavirus have been reported in the state.

The country is under a 21-day lockdown to prevent the spread of coronavirus, which according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has claimed the lives of 29 people and infected a total of 1071 people as on Monday morning.

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Agencies
May 26,2020

The Shopping Centres Association of India (SCAI) on Monday said the sector has lost over Rs 90,000 crore in the last two months, owing to the lockdown, and market players need much more than the repo rate cut and the loan moratorium extended by the RBI.

In a statement, the industry body said that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) relief measures are not adequate to support the liquidity needs of the industry.

According to the SCAI, there is a common misconception that the shopping centres' industry is centred around metros and large cities with investments only from large developers, private equity players and foreign investors.

"However, the fact is that most malls are part of the SMEs or standalone developers. i.e. more than 550 are single owned by standalone developers out of the 650-odd organised shopping centres across the country and there are 1,000+ small centres in smaller cities," it said.

Amitabh Taneja, Chairman of SCAI said: "The organised retail industry is in distress and has not earned anything since the lockdown and their survival is at stake. While the extension of the loan moratorium talks about some relief on repayment but won't help the industry in liquidity."

He said that a long term beneficial plan from the government is much required to revive the sector.

"Being the most safe, accountable, and controlled environment, unfortunately, malls have not been permitted to open which will lead to job losses and might even shut shops for a lot of mall developers," Taneja said.

In its representations to the Centre and the Reserve Bank of India, the association has also pointed out that, in absence of financial package and stimulus from the RBI, over 500 shopping centres may go bankrupt, that may lead to the banking industry staring at NPAs of Rs 25,000 crore.

The industry body has put forward its recommendations and requests to the government. It had sought moratorium till March 2021 at the least in terms of repayment of bank loans, interest, EMI and so on, without levy of any penalties or penal interest.

It has also sought a one-time loan restructuring with lower rates of interest, permitted for shopping centres and a facilitative and forward-looking support provision of short-term financing options for a period of six to 12 months, at lower interest rates, to meet the increased working capital requirements.

Among other relaxations, it had also appealed for GST rebates to offset the losses on account of and for the period of closure of business.

It also said that interest rates should be brought down to "manageable levels" of 5-6% in view of the precarious financial situation.

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