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New Delhi, May 23: The nationwide lockdown will no longer help India in its fight against COVID-19, and in its place community-driven containment, isolation and quarantine strategies have to be brought into play, leading virologist Shahid Jameel said.

The recipient of Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Prize for Science and Technology also stressed that testing should be carried out vigorously to identify coronavirus hotspots and isolate those areas.

"Our current testing rate at 1,744 tests per million population is one of the lowest in the world. We should deploy both antibody tests and confirmatory PCR tests. This will tell us about pockets of ongoing infection and past (recovered) infection. This will provide data to open up gradually and let economic activity resume," Jameel told PTI in an interview.

He stressed that testing has to be dynamic to continuously monitor red, orange and green zones and change these based on that data.

About community transmission of COVID-19 in India, Jameel said the country reached that stage long ago.

"We reached community transmission a long time ago. It's just that the health authorities are not admitting it. Even ICMR's own study of SARI (severe acute respiratory illness) showed that about 40 per cent of those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 did not have any history of overseas travel or contact to a known case. If this is not community transmission, then what is?" he posed.

Lockdown bought India time in its fight against coronavirus, but continuing it is unlikely to yield any further dividend, Jameel said.

"Instead, community-driven local lockdowns, isolations and quarantines have to come into play. Building trust is most important so that people follow rules. A public health problem cannot be dealt with as a law-and-order problem."

The nationwide lockdown, initially imposed from March 25 to April 14, has been extended thrice and will continue at least till May 31. The virus has claimed 3,720 lives and infected over 1.25 lakh people in the country so far.

Jameel has expertise in the fields of molecular biology, infectious diseases, and biotechnology. He is the CEO of Wellcome Trust/Department of Biotechnology's India Alliance and is best known for extensive research in Hepatitis E virus and HIV.

He said COVID-19 will eventually be controlled through herd immunity, which is acquired in two ways – when a sufficient fraction of the population gets infected and recovers, and with vaccination.

"It is estimated that for SARS-CoV-2 at least 60 per cent of the population would have to be infected and recovered, or vaccinated. This will happen over the course of the next few years," Jameel said.

Herd immunity is reached when the majority of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, either because they have become infected and recovered, or through vaccination. When that happens, the disease is less likely to spread to people who aren't immune, because there just aren't enough infectious carriers.

"India has 1.38 billion people, a population density of about 400/sq km and a healthcare system ranked at 143 in the world. If we allow 60 per cent people to get infected quickly in the hopes of herd immunity, that would mean 830 million infections," Jameel said.

"If 15 per cent need hospitalization that means about 125 million isolation beds (we have 0.3 million). If five per cent need oxygen and ventilatory support, this amounts to about 42 million oxygen support and ICU beds; we have 0.1 million oxygen support beds and 34,000 ICU beds. This would overwhelm the healthcare system causing mayhem," he said.

Jameel said if the population level mortality is 0.5 per cent that would mean 40 lakh deaths. "Are we prepared to pay this price for herd immunity in the short term? Clearly not," he said.

He said it is unlikely that a vaccine would be available by the end of the year.

"Even then, we don't know yet how long it would give protection – weeks, months, one year, a few years? I don't think we will return to pre-coronavirus days for at least the next 3-5 years. This is also a chance to evaluate if we want to return to those unsustainable, environment-damaging ways. COVID-19 is a timely warning to reform our way of living," he said.

Jameel said it is hard to predict but plausible that COVID-19 would return in second or third wave.

"Later waves come when we don't understand the disease and become lax. A comparison to Spanish Flu is not entirely valid because in 1918 no one knew what caused it. No one had seen a virus till the mid-1930s as the electron microscope needed to view those was invented in 1931," he said.

"Today we know a lot more about the pathogen, its genetic makeup, how it transmits and how to prevent it. We need to be sensible and follow expert advice," he said.

If there is any scientific evidence linking deforestation, rapid urbanisation, climate change with pandemics like COVID-19, he said zoonotic viruses -- those that jump from animals to humans -- happen so when wild animal–human contacts increase.

"Deforestation destroys animal habitats bringing them closer to humans. When you cut forests, bats come to roost on trees closer to human habitations. Their viruses in secretions/stool get transmitted to domestic animals and on to humans. This happened clearly with Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia in 1997-98 from fruit bats to pigs to humans," he said.

"COVID-19 possibly arose in wet animal markets due to dietary habits that bring all kinds of live and dead wild animals in close contact with humans," Jameel added.

United Nations, May 21: At least 19 million children in parts of Bangladesh and India are at "imminent risk" from flash flooding and heavy rain as Cyclone Amphan makes landfall and the state of West Bengal is expected to take a direct hit from the powerful storm, the UN's children agency has warned.

The extremely severe cyclonic storm Amphan made a landfall at Digha in West Bengal and Bangladesh on Wednesday, leaving a trail of destruction. At least three persons were killed in India and seven in Bangladesh.

The UNICEF said that at least 19 million children in parts of Bangladesh and India are at “imminent risk from flash flooding, storm surges and heavy rain as Cyclone Amphan makes landfall.”

West Bengal, “home to more than 50 million people, including over 16 million children, is expected to take a direct hit from the powerful storm,” the UN agency said in a statement on Wednesday.

The UNICEF said it is also very concerned that the COVID-19 could deepen the humanitarian consequences of Cyclone Amphan in both the countries. Evacuees who have moved to crowded temporary shelters would be especially vulnerable to the spread of respiratory diseases like COVID-19, as well as other infections.

“We continue to monitor the situation closely,” said UNICEF Regional Director for South Asia Jean Gough.

“The safety of children and their families in the areas that will be impacted is a priority and it is good to see that the authorities have planned their urgent response factoring in the on-going COVID-19 pandemic.”

Across the region, the UNICEF is “working closely with the governments of Bangladesh and India and stands ready to support humanitarian operations to reach children and families affected by Cyclone Amphan.”

Based on the storm’s current trajectory, Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh – now sheltering over 850,000 Rohingya refugees – is likely to experience high winds and heavy rains which may cause damage to homes and shelters in the refugee camps and Bangladeshi communities. This population is already highly vulnerable and cases of COVID-19 have recently been confirmed in the camps and host communities.

The UNICEF said it is working with the Deputy Commissioner’s Office in Cox’s Bazar, the Office of the Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner, and humanitarian partners to help ensure Bangladeshi and Rohingya children and families remain protected.

These efforts include raising awareness among Rohingya and Bangladeshi communities on cyclone preparedness and prepositioning emergency life-saving water, sanitation, hygiene and medical supplies to meet immediate humanitarian needs.

Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said at the daily press briefing that UN teams on the ground continue to work with the Government of Bangladesh to prepare and support those in need in the wake of the cyclone.

“Given the current pandemic, this support includes distributing personal protective equipment, disinfectants and other materials to evacuation shelters. To reduce the person-to-person contact during the delivery of aid, e-cash distributions will be used,” he said adding that the UN along with its partners is mobilising more than 1,700 mobile health teams and preparing for emergency food deliveries.

“The Super Cyclone is taking a westerly trajectory towards India, but nearly 8 million people in Bangladesh remain at risk,” he said adding that the Bangladesh government has evacuated more than 2 million people in high-risk areas. 

New Delhi, Mar 3: A day after two new cases of novel coronavirus that included one from Delhi were reported, the Health Ministry on Tuesday said six cases with "high-viral load" were detected during sample testing in Agra and these people have been kept in isolation. The six people had come in contact with a 45-year-old patient from Delhi, whose case came to light on Monday, and they include his family members.

According to government sources, the man, who is a resident of Mayur Vihar, had visited them in Agra.

The six have been kept in isolation at Safdarjung Hospital in Delhi and their samples are being sent to NIV, Pune for confirmation.

Contact tracing of the people who came in contact with the six is simultaneously being done through the Integrated Disease Surveillance Program (IDSP) network, the ministry said in a statement.

Sources said the patient from Mayur Vihar was shifted to a quarantine ward at Safdarjung Hospital on Sunday night.

His other family members have been asked to stay alert and look out for symptoms. One accountant, who came in contact with the man and some of his family members, was also quarantined, they said.

India on Monday reported two new cases of the novel coronavirus, one from Delhi and another one from Hyderabad. The government has stepped up its efforts to detect and check the infection which has killed 2,912 people in China.

On Monday, Rajasthan Health Minister Raghu Sharma had said that an Italian tourist tested positive for coronavirus in Jaipur.

The first sample collected from him on February 29 tested negative but his condition deteriorated, so a second sample was collected which tested positive on Monday, the minister said, adding, "Since there is a variation in the reports, the samples have been sent to the NIV, Pune for testing".

India had earlier reported three cases from Kerala, including two medical students from Wuhan in China, the epicentre of the deadly novel coronavirus. They had self-reported on their return to the country and tested positive for the infection. They were discharged from hospitals last month following recovery.

The infected person from Delhi had travelled to Italy, while the other patient who tested positive for the COVID-19 infection is from Telangana and had recently travelled to Dubai.

Both the patients had self-reported after they developed symptoms.

"They tested positive. They are stable and being closely monitored," ministry said on Monday.

The government has asked people to avoid non-essential travel to Iran, Italy, South Korea and Singapore and said India was in discussions with authorities in Iran and Italy, two countries badly affected by the infection, to evacuate Indians there.

The novel coronavirus or COVID-19, which originated in China, has spread to over 60 countries.