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New Delhi, May 23: The nationwide lockdown will no longer help India in its fight against COVID-19, and in its place community-driven containment, isolation and quarantine strategies have to be brought into play, leading virologist Shahid Jameel said.

The recipient of Shanti Swarup Bhatnagar Prize for Science and Technology also stressed that testing should be carried out vigorously to identify coronavirus hotspots and isolate those areas.

"Our current testing rate at 1,744 tests per million population is one of the lowest in the world. We should deploy both antibody tests and confirmatory PCR tests. This will tell us about pockets of ongoing infection and past (recovered) infection. This will provide data to open up gradually and let economic activity resume," Jameel told PTI in an interview.

He stressed that testing has to be dynamic to continuously monitor red, orange and green zones and change these based on that data.

About community transmission of COVID-19 in India, Jameel said the country reached that stage long ago.

"We reached community transmission a long time ago. It's just that the health authorities are not admitting it. Even ICMR's own study of SARI (severe acute respiratory illness) showed that about 40 per cent of those who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 did not have any history of overseas travel or contact to a known case. If this is not community transmission, then what is?" he posed.

Lockdown bought India time in its fight against coronavirus, but continuing it is unlikely to yield any further dividend, Jameel said.

"Instead, community-driven local lockdowns, isolations and quarantines have to come into play. Building trust is most important so that people follow rules. A public health problem cannot be dealt with as a law-and-order problem."

The nationwide lockdown, initially imposed from March 25 to April 14, has been extended thrice and will continue at least till May 31. The virus has claimed 3,720 lives and infected over 1.25 lakh people in the country so far.

Jameel has expertise in the fields of molecular biology, infectious diseases, and biotechnology. He is the CEO of Wellcome Trust/Department of Biotechnology's India Alliance and is best known for extensive research in Hepatitis E virus and HIV.

He said COVID-19 will eventually be controlled through herd immunity, which is acquired in two ways – when a sufficient fraction of the population gets infected and recovers, and with vaccination.

"It is estimated that for SARS-CoV-2 at least 60 per cent of the population would have to be infected and recovered, or vaccinated. This will happen over the course of the next few years," Jameel said.

Herd immunity is reached when the majority of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, either because they have become infected and recovered, or through vaccination. When that happens, the disease is less likely to spread to people who aren't immune, because there just aren't enough infectious carriers.

"India has 1.38 billion people, a population density of about 400/sq km and a healthcare system ranked at 143 in the world. If we allow 60 per cent people to get infected quickly in the hopes of herd immunity, that would mean 830 million infections," Jameel said.

"If 15 per cent need hospitalization that means about 125 million isolation beds (we have 0.3 million). If five per cent need oxygen and ventilatory support, this amounts to about 42 million oxygen support and ICU beds; we have 0.1 million oxygen support beds and 34,000 ICU beds. This would overwhelm the healthcare system causing mayhem," he said.

Jameel said if the population level mortality is 0.5 per cent that would mean 40 lakh deaths. "Are we prepared to pay this price for herd immunity in the short term? Clearly not," he said.

He said it is unlikely that a vaccine would be available by the end of the year.

"Even then, we don't know yet how long it would give protection – weeks, months, one year, a few years? I don't think we will return to pre-coronavirus days for at least the next 3-5 years. This is also a chance to evaluate if we want to return to those unsustainable, environment-damaging ways. COVID-19 is a timely warning to reform our way of living," he said.

Jameel said it is hard to predict but plausible that COVID-19 would return in second or third wave.

"Later waves come when we don't understand the disease and become lax. A comparison to Spanish Flu is not entirely valid because in 1918 no one knew what caused it. No one had seen a virus till the mid-1930s as the electron microscope needed to view those was invented in 1931," he said.

"Today we know a lot more about the pathogen, its genetic makeup, how it transmits and how to prevent it. We need to be sensible and follow expert advice," he said.

If there is any scientific evidence linking deforestation, rapid urbanisation, climate change with pandemics like COVID-19, he said zoonotic viruses -- those that jump from animals to humans -- happen so when wild animal–human contacts increase.

"Deforestation destroys animal habitats bringing them closer to humans. When you cut forests, bats come to roost on trees closer to human habitations. Their viruses in secretions/stool get transmitted to domestic animals and on to humans. This happened clearly with Nipah virus outbreak in Malaysia in 1997-98 from fruit bats to pigs to humans," he said.

"COVID-19 possibly arose in wet animal markets due to dietary habits that bring all kinds of live and dead wild animals in close contact with humans," Jameel added.

New Delhi, May 15: Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan has appealed to all states and Union Territories to ban the sale of smokeless tobacco products and spitting in public places in line with the orders of the Rajasthan and Jharkhand governments to prevent the spread of coronavirus infection.

In a letter to all state health ministers, Vardhan said smokeless tobacco users have a tendency to spit in public places or otherwise and therefore, increase health risks especially those of spreading contagious diseases like COVID-19, tuberculosis, swine flu, encephalitis and others.

"Use of smokeless tobacco also creates an unhygienic environment which further spreads the diseases. The large gathering at the retail outlets where smokeless tobacco products are sold, also pose the risk of spread of COVID-19," he said.

In the letter dated May 11, the Union minister underlined that tobacco use is a major threat to public health globally. He also mentioned the Indian Council of Medical Research's (ICMR) appeal to the public not to consume and spit smokeless tobacco products in public places.

Chewing tobacco products and areca nut increases the production of saliva followed by a very strong urge to spit. Spitting in public places could enhance the spread of the COVID-19, Vardhan said.

"By banning spitting in public places, states and UTs can help in achieving not only Swachh Bharat but also Swasth Bharat (Clean India and Healthy India)," he said.

Vardhan also mentioned the May 1 guidelines issued by the Union Home Ministry under the National Disaster Management Act, 2005, which stipulate that "spitting in public places shall be punishable with fine as may be prescribed by the state/UT local authority and consumption of liquor, pan, gutkha, tobacco etc in public places is not allowed".

Appreciating the efforts of Rajasthan and Jharkhand in this direction, the Union Health Minister urged all states to take similar measures and create widespread awareness regarding the harm of spitting in public places.

The Rajasthan government had by an ordinance banned spinning in public places and sale of paan, gutka and tobacco in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. The Jharkhand too has imposed a complete ban on all types of tobacco products to prevent spitting in public places that could increase the spread of coronavirus infection.

"I am happy to note that the governments of Jharkhand and Rajasthan have already completely banned the sale of tobacco products and spitting in public places. Therefore, I urge upon you to take similar measures and also create widespread awareness in your state/ UT regarding harms of spitting in public places.

"It is also requested that the directions of Ministry of Home Affairs in this regard may be implemented scrupulously and effectively," Vardhan said in the letter.

Tobacco smoking is a known risk factor for many respiratory infections and increases the severity of related diseases. A review of studies by public health experts convened by WHO on April 29 found that smokers are more likely to develop severe diseases, compared to non-smokers, said Binoy Mathew, senior programme officer of Voluntary Health Association of India.

It is one of the main risk factors for a number of chronic ailments, including cancer, lung and cardiovascular diseases, he said, adding that according to the Global Adult Tobacco Survey, with 268 million or 28.6 per cent of all adults in India, the country has the second largest number of tobacco users in the world.

At least 12 lakh die from tobacco-related diseases every year, Mathew said.

Those keen to quit smoking and smokeless products can avail of free of charge telephone-based services launched by the government. The Ministry of Health has set up a National Tobacco Quit Line Services to provide counselling services to help tobacco consumers quit the habit.

Kochi, Jan 11: Two of the four illegal apartment complexes were brought down by controlled implosion here on Saturday.

However, the other two apartments-- Golden Kayaloram and Jain Coral-- will be demolished on Sunday.

The demolition of the first building Holy Faith H2O, slated to be carried out at 11 am, was delayed by 18 minutes while the twin towers of Alfa Serene, which is surrounded by 36 houses, were brought down at 11.43 am.

As per authorities, as many as 343 kgs of explosives were used for the demolition of twin towers of Alfa Serene, which had 80 apartments and 16 floors each.

Section 144 has been imposed within a 200-metre radius of the complexes on Saturday and Sunday. Moreover, traffic has been halted on land, water and air in the evacuation zone during the process.

There are concerns that some concrete pieces of the second tower of the building may have fallen into the lake nearby. It is yet to be estimated if the debris or concrete pieces have affected the buildings nearby.

The four apartment complexes in Maradu were ordered to be demolished by the Supreme Court for violating the Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) norms.