Energy prices rebalancing after OPEC deal: Qatar

April 28, 2017

Istanbul, Apr 28: Global energy markets are heading to a rebalancing in the next few years after oil prices fell to historic lows due to oversupply, Qatar’s Energy and Industry Minister Mohammed Saleh Abdullah Al-Sada said on Thursday, praising members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for their adherence to a “successful” November deal to cut production.

Energy

He told the Atlantic Council summit in Istanbul that a decade of high oil prices had led to a dangerous oversupply and subsequent price falls.

“The consequence was an unprecedented shrinkage in investment and if that trend continues, it will lead to new instability — a price spiral and a tightening of the market which is not in anyone’s interest,” he warned.

OPEC members agreed in November to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day for six months beginning from the start of the year in a bid to shore up prices.

The move was also partly matched by non-OPEC producers led by Russia and the critical question is whether OPEC will take new action at its next meeting on May 25 or not.

“A balancing was bound to happen. What we want to do is to hasten that process of balancing,” said the minister.

He hailed the fact that compliance to the November agreement has been almost 98 percent including all participants, and had sometimes been over 100 percent among OPEC members, meaning they had exceeded the output cuts demanded.

Compliance has historically been a problem within OPEC and Al-Sada said that adherence to past agreements had been on average only 70 percent. “The agreement was very successful and it helped the process of rebalancing,” he said.

“It (the market) is picking up. We hope to get a more accelerated balancing process in the second half of the year.”

Al-Sada said the rebalancing was coming but would still take time.

“The market today is well supplied and will be for the next years. The upturn is definitely going to come and the market will balance, yes, not in the coming two years but in four or five.”

Oil prices currently hover just around $50 per barrel after shedding around half of their value since mid-2014.

Al-Sada denied that low oil prices were of benefit to anyone.

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo, meanwhile, said that a global oil overhang was declining, but he added that stocks remained high and needed to fall further. OPEC is discussing extending its cuts into the second half of the year, but the group has an uphill task.

Oil prices fell on Thursday after news that two key oilfields in Libya had restarted, pumping crude for export into an already bloated market.

Benchmark Brent crude fell $1.14 a barrel to a low of $50.68 before recovering slightly to trade around $50.85 by 1220 GMT. The contract has fallen more than 10 percent from this month’s peak.

US light crude oil hit a low of $48.51, down $1.11 a barrel on the day.

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News Network
April 5,2020

Beirut, Apr 5: The novel coronavirus has put global trade on hold, placed half of the world population in confinement and has the potential to topple governments and reshape diplomatic relations.

The United Nations has appealed for ceasefires in all the major conflicts rocking the planet, with its chief Antonio Guterres on Friday warning "the worst is yet to come". But it remains unclear what the pandemic's impact will be on the multiple wars roiling the Middle East.

Here is an overview of the impact so far on the conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Libya and Iraq:

The COVID-19 outbreak turned into a pandemic just as a ceasefire reached by the two main foreign power brokers in Syria's nine-year-old war -- Russia and Turkey -- was taking effect.

The three million people living in the ceasefire zone, in the country's northwestern region of Idlib, had little hope the deal would hold.

Yet fears the coronavirus could spread like wildfire across the devastated country appear to have given the truce an extended lease of life.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the month of March saw the lowest civilian death toll since the conflict started in 2011, with 103 deaths.

The ability of the multiple administrations in Syria -- the Damascus government, the autonomous Kurdish administration in the northeast and the jihadist-led alliance that runs Idlib -- to manage the coronavirus threat is key to their credibility.

"This epidemic is a way for Damascus to show that the Syrian state is efficient and all territories should be returned under its governance," analyst Fabrice Balanche said.

However the pandemic and the global mobilisation it requires could precipitate the departure of US-led troops from Syria and neighbouring Iraq.

This in turn could create a vacuum in which the Islamic State jihadist group, still reeling from the demise of its "caliphate" a year ago, could seek to step up its attacks.

The Yemeni government and the Huthi rebels initially responded positively to the UN appeal for a ceasefire, as did neighbouring Saudi Arabia, which leads a military coalition in support of the government.

That rare glimmer of hope in the five-year-old conflict was short-lived however and last week Saudi air defences intercepted ballistic missiles over Riyadh and a border city fired by the Iran-backed rebels.

The Saudi-led coalition retaliated by striking Huthi targets in the rebel-held capital Sanaa on Monday.

Talks have repeatedly faltered but the UN envoy Martin Griffiths is holding daily consultations in a bid to clinch a nationwide ceasefire.

More flare-ups in Yemen could compound a humanitarian crisis often described as the worst in the world and invite a coronavirus outbreak of catastrophic proportions.

In a country where the health infrastructure has collapsed, where water is a rare commodity and where 24 million people require humanitarian assistance, the population fears being wiped out if a ceasefire doesn't allow for adequate aid.

"People will end up dying on the streets, bodies will be rotting in the open," said Mohammed Omar, a taxi driver in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida.

Much like Yemen, the main protagonists in the Libyan conflict initially welcomed the UN ceasefire call but swiftly resumed hostilities.

Fierce fighting has rocked the south of the capital Tripoli in recent days, suggesting the risk of a major coronavirus outbreak is not enough to make guns fall silent.

Turkey has recently played a key role in the conflict, throwing its weight behind the UN-recognised Government of National Accord.

Fabrice Balanche predicted that accelerated Western disengagement from Middle East conflicts could limit Turkish support to the GNA.

That could eventually favour forces loyal to eastern-based strongman Khalifa Haftar, who launched an assault on Tripoli one year ago and has the backing of Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

Western countries have been hit hardest by the pandemic, which could prompt them to divert both military resources and peace-brokering capacity from foreign conflicts.

A report by the International Crisis Group said European officials had reported that efforts to secure a ceasefire in Libya were no longer receiving high-level attention due to the pandemic.

Iraq is no longer gripped by fully-fledged conflict but it remains vulnerable to an IS resurgence in some regions and its two main foreign backers are at each other's throats.

Iran and the United States are two of the countries most affected by the coronavirus but there has been no sign of any let-up in their battle for influence that has largely played out on Iraqi soil.

With most non-US troops in the coalition now gone and some bases evacuated, American personnel are now regrouped in a handful of locations in Iraq.

Washington has deployed Patriot air defence missiles, prompting fears of a fresh escalation with Tehran, whose proxies it blames for a spate of rocket attacks on bases housing US troops.

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Agencies
August 8,2020

Beirut, Aug 7: A devastating explosion that destroyed much of Beirut might have been the result of a missile attack or bomb, Lebanese President Michel Aoun said, as the death toll from the blast rose to 154.

More than 2,700 tons of ammonium nitrate had been sitting in a port warehouse for six years, but there have been conflicting accounts about why Lebanese authorities decided to empty the shipment of explosive material. The vessel carrying the flammable cargo was heading from Georgia to Mozambique when it stopped in the Lebanese port to load up on iron, according to the ship’s captain.

By Friday, 19 suspects had been arrested and Lebanon’s former director general of customs Chafic Merhy had been questioned by military police.

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News Network
July 9,2020

Dubai, Jul 9: The Government of India has announced an additional 104 special repatriation flights from the UAE to India as part of the Vande Bharat Mission, Phase 4 from July 15 - 31.

According to a flight schedule listed on the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) website, national carriers Air India and Air India Express flights have been scheduled to various cities in 10 Indian states. Each flight has a capacity of 177 passengers.

Vande Bharat Phase 4 officially began on July 3, and in an earlier press briefing Anurag Srivastava, spokesperson of India's Ministry of External Affairs had said 'Phase 4 will focus on repatriation of Gulf-based Indians.

The new additional flights have been organised to cities in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Delhi, Telangana, Punjab, Haryana, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, and Rajasthan, according to the MEA schedule. To the joy of expats from Maharashtra, at least seven flights have been planned to Mumbai, which has been a less serviced state since the start of the Vande Bharat Mission.

Consul Press, Information, and Culture, Consulate General of India in Dubai Neeraj Agarwal said, "Approximately 100 repatriation flights are planned for the next 23 days, including 50 from Dubai and Sharjah each. If all flights are full, we are looking to evacuate anything between 17,000 to 18,000 passengers in the coming days."

Booking for the newly announced flights will open soon, said Agarwal. "Some of them are already open, and others will be open in the next few days. However, a few flights are subject to slot approvals," he explained.

Commenting on the possibility of flights from India to the UAE, Agarwal said, "We express hope that this too will happen soon."  The flight schedule can be seen here: https://www.mea.gov.in/phase-4.htm

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