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New Delhi, Apr 21: The historic rout in oil markets that sent US crude prices plummeting to as much as minus USD 40 a barrel is unlikely to translate into any big reduction in petrol and diesel prices in India as domestic pricing is based on different benchmark, and refineries are already filled up to brim and cannot buy US crude just yet.

With storage capacity already overflowing amid coronavirus-induced demand collapse, traders rushed to to get rid of unwanted stocks triggering the collapse of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May delivery.

Indian Oil Corp (IOC) Chairman Sanjiv Singh said the collapse was triggered by traders unable to take deliveries of crude they had previously booked because of a demand collapse. And so they paid the seller to keep oil in their storage.

"If you look at June futures, it is trading in positive territory... around USD 20 per barrel," he said.

Low oil prices may seem good in short-term but in the long run it will hurt the oil economy as producers will have no surplus to invest in exploration and production which will lead to a drop in production, he said.

He did not comment on retail fuel prices that have been static since March 16.

Oil companies have not changed rates despite a fall in international prices as they first adjusted them against the increase that was warranted from a Rs 3 per litre hike in excise duty and close to Re 1 per litre additional cost of switching over to cleaner BS-VI grade fuel from April 1.

Petrol in Delhi is priced at Rs 69.59 a litre and diesel comes for Rs 62.29 per litre.

"The negative price has no direct impact on India or Indian oil prices, as this has taken place due to crude oil produced and traded within the US. India's prices are driven partly by another benchmark, the Brent, which is still trading at USD 25/barrel. Therefore, the retail price of fuels in India are unlikely to fall," said Amit Bhandari, Fellow, Energy and Environment Studies, Gateway House.

Also, Indian refineries are already overflowing as fuel demand has evaporated due to the unprecedented nationwide lockdown imposed to curb spread of COVID-19. So, they can't rush to buy US crude.

The refineries have already cut operating rate to half because the fuel they produce has not been sold yet.

India imports 4 million barrels/day (1.4 billion barrels/year) of oil. The country has been benefitting from the falling prices of oil for the last five years, when oil dropped from a peak of USD 110/barrel to USD 50-60/barrel last year, enabling India to invest in public service programmes.

"However, the additional USD 30 fall of this week is good for India - but there is also a downside. If oil prices are too low, the economies of oil-rich gulf countries will be hurt, threatening the job prospects of the 8 million Indians working in the Gulf countries. India is the largest recipient of foreign remittances due to these workers – very low oil prices will hurt this cash stream," Bhandari said.

He said the negative price of oil shows how much oil oversupply exists in international markets today. "Global oil consumption has fallen due to the COVID-19 pandemic that traders are willing to pay customers to get rid of the barrels they can't store. The world does not have enough storage capacity, and dumping the oil is an environmental crime."

The first half of April saw Brent crude oil prices plummet 63.6 per cent to USD 26.9 per barrel. Prices of Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the American oil, had also fallen similarly by 63.1 per cent.

But on April 20, WTI prices turned rapidly negative because traders on the Nymex exchange rushed to offload their May futures positions a day before expiry of contracts (on April 21).

Such WTI futures are traded on the Nymex exchange with contracts settled in physical crude oil. Problem is, those who had gone long are unable to find storage facilities for the oil and had to liquidate their contracts before expiry. This caused the plunge in WTI prices.

Contrast to this, June WTI Nymex futures prices is hovering around USD 21, while Brent for June delivery is at USD 25.

Miren Lodha, Director, CRISIL Research said the demand for crude oil was declining already because of economic slowdown when the COVID-19 pandemic-driven lockdowns crushed it further.

Consequently, oil demand is expected to contract by 8-10 million barrels per day (mbpd) in 2020 assuming demand recovery begins from the third quarter of the year, he said, adding if recovery doesn't happen by then, further demand destruction could occur.

On the supply side, producers reining in output following a strategic deal between OPEC members, Russia and the US.

Under this agreement, OPEC+ would reduce oil production by 9.7 mbpd for May and June, but gradually ease the curb to 7.7 mbpd between July and December 2020, and to 5.8 mbpd till April 2022 to stabilise prices.

"This is expected to reduce some surplus in the market by the end of 2020," Lodha said.

Crude oil demand is expected to decline by over 20 mbpd in April alone. Typically, monthly global demand is about 100 mbpd. Given this scenario, supply curbs would have limited influence.

Consequently, Brent oil prices is expected to be in the USD 25-30 range for the second quarter while increasing marginally in the last 2 quarters of 2020.

"The gigantic inventory build-ups and lack of storage facilities would also put pressure on prices," he said, adding overall Brent could average USD 30-35 in 2020, with a strong downward bias.

New Delhi, Jun 22: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on Monday left for a three-day visit to Russia. Singh is likely to discuss the India-Russia defence and strategic partnership during the visit and also attend a military parade in Moscow to mark the 75th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in the Second World War.

The visit comes days after the violent face-off with China in which 20 Indian Armymen were killed in Galwan valley in Ladakh.

"Leaving for Moscow on a three day visit. The visit to Russia will give me an opportunity to hold talks on ways to further deepen the India-Russia defence and strategic partnership. I shall also be attending the 75th Victory Day Parade in Moscow," the Defence Minister tweeted.

Defence Secretary Ajay Kumar is also accompanying the minister.

New Delhi, Apr 22: The number of COVID-19 cases in India reached 20,471on Wednesday, with Maharashtra continuing to be the worst-hit state.

Out of the total number of cases, 15,859 are active cases, 3,959 cured or discharged and 652 deaths.

Maharashtra has reported the highest number of cases across the country, with the count at 5,221, followed by Delhi (2,156) and Gujarat (2,272). Maharashtra reported 251 deaths, the highest fatality rate than any other state.
Fresh cases were reported today from Kerala, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Kashmir among other states and UTs.

The Union Cabinet on Wednesday approved Rs 15,000 crore for 'India COVID-19 Emergency Response and Health System Preparedness Package'. The funds sanctioned will be utilised in three phases.

While Rs 7,774 crore has been provisioned for immediate COVID-19 emergency response, the rest would be used for medium-term support (1-4 years) to be provided under mission mode approach.

Briefing mediapersons about the package here on Wednesday, Union Minister Prakash Javadekar said the key objectives of the package include mounting emergency response to slow and limit COVID-19 in India through the development of diagnostics and COV1D-dedicated treatment facilities, centralised procurement of essential medical equipment and drugs required for treatment of infected patients, strengthen and build resilient national and state health systems to support prevention and preparedness for future disease outbreaks.

Javadekar said that no decision has been taken so far regarding the resumption of flight operations.

"No decision has been taken yet on the resumption of flight operations. An announcement will be made on time as to when it will resume," Javadekar told reporters.
Here's a quick read on the COVID-19 related updates:

1. Two Chinese manufactures of rapid antibody test, Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co. Ltd and Zhuhai Livzon Diagnostics Inc are now the subject of investigations by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) as the rapid testing antibody kits of these two companies delivered results with wide variations and low accuracy.

2. Rajasthan Health Minister Raghu Sharma said that 735 doctors have recently been recruited and posted to hospitals in the state.

3. The Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) has settled 10.02 lakh claims, including 6.06 lakh COVID-19 cases, under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana (PMGKY) in 15 working days.

4. Secretary of Overseas Indian Affairs in the Ministry of External Affairs, Vikas Swarup, interacted with envoys of nearly 30 Central European countries on Wednesday and shared thoughts on fighting COVID-19.

5. Taking cognisance of the need for essential services like plumbing during COVID 19 crisis, the Indian Plumbing Skills Council (IPSC) aligned to Skill India programme, under the aegis of the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship (MSDE), has prepared a database of over 900 plumbers who are ready to provide their services during the lockdown period across the country.

6. Braving all odds, workers of the Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHA) are conducting door to door surveys in the Red Zones of Nagpur putting their lives at risk.

7. Aviation Minister Hardeep Puri on Wednesday said that Air India has lifted about 300 tonnes of essential medical cargo so far this month through China-India aerobridge. It is planned that Air India along with SpiceJet and Blue Dart will airlift another 220 tonnes of this critical cargo in the next three days.

8. Ministry of Railways has offered to supply 2.6 lakh meals daily from various railway kitchens wherever the district administration is willing and able to pick up cooked meals and distribute among the needy. This has been communicated to district authorities all over the country.

9. Uttarakhand Chief Minister Trivendra Singh Rawat on Wednesday said that the state's COVID-19 doubling rate stands at 26.6 days and Uttarakhand ranks third in preventing coronavirus infection.

10. The Central government has brought an ordinance to end violence against health workers, making it a cognizable, non-bailable offence with imprisonment up to seven years for those found guilty.