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New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.

New Delhi, May 15: A group of doctors from the AIIMS, Raipur has recommended restrictions on the use of mobile phones in healthcare institutions amid the COVID-19 pandemic, warning that such devices can be a potential carrier of the virus and lead to infection among healthcare workers.

In a commentary published in the BMJ Global Health journal, the doctors stated that mobile phone surfaces are a peculiar 'high-risk' surface, which can directly come in contact with the face or mouth, even if hands are properly washed and one study indicates that some healthcare workers use phones every 15 minutes to two hours.

Though there have been many significant guidelines from various health organisations like the WHO and CDC focusing on prevention and control of disease, the commentary highlighted "there is no mention of or focus on mobile phones in these guidelines, including the WHO infection control and prevention guidelines, which recommends the use of handwashing".

In healthcare facilities, phones are used to communicate with other health care workers, look up recent medical guidelines, research drug interactions, understand adverse events and side effects, conduct telemedicine appointments and track patients among others, stated the document.

The document has been authored by Dr Vineet Kumar Pathak, Dr Sunil Kumar Panigrahi, Dr M Mohan Kumar, Dr Utsav Raj and Dr Karpaga Priya P from the Department of Community and Family Medicine.

"In their tendency to come in direct contact with the face, nose or eyes in healthcare settings, mobile phones are perhaps second only to masks, caps or goggles," the authors said.

"However, they are neither disposable nor washable like these other three, thus warranting disinfection. Mobile phones can effectively negate hand hygiene... There is growing evidence that mobile phones are a potential vector for pathogenic organisms," they said.

It is the need of the hour to address proper hygienic use of mobile phones in healthcare settings. In a study in India, almost 100 per cent of health workers of a tertiary care hospital used mobile phones in the hospital, but only 10 per cent of them had at any time wiped their mobile phones clean, the commentary published on April 22 said.

"The safest thing to do is to consider your phone as an extension of your hand, so remember you are transferring whatever is on your phone to your hand," Dr Pathak said.

Amidst the ongoing pandemic, two biggest mobile phone companies have uploaded their user support guidelines, saying that 70 pc isopropyl alcohol or Clorox Disinfecting Wipes can be used to gently wipe the exterior surface of phones in switched-off mode.

However, in doing so, the use of bleach or entry of moisture through any of the openings must be avoided, and any harsh chemical may damage the oleophobic screen, leading to damage in the touch screen sensitivity of the phone, the article stated.

Mobile phones are one of the most highly touched surfaces according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), along with counters, tabletops, doorknobs, bathroom fixtures, toilets, keyboards, tablets and bedside tables.

The doctors recommended restriction on mobile phone usage in healthcare settings like hospital wards, ICUs and operation theatres, while advocating the use of headphones to prevent contact with the face while talking.

There should be no sharing of mobile phones, headphones or headsets of any kind. In addition, where available, the use of interdepartmental intercom facility may be promoted.

"Although hand hygiene and mobile phone use by a person are not mutually exclusive, it is high time to acknowledge the potential role of mobile phones in disease transmission cascade and to take evidence-based appropriate actions. This is especially important, given the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic," the authors said.

They said it is necessary for government agencies and the WHO to generate public awareness and to formulate suitable information, education and communication material on mobile phone hygiene, especially in healthcare settings.

AIIMS, New Delhi, Resident Doctors' Association (RDA) General Secretary, Dr Srinivas Rajkumar T said even outside health care settings, people should pay special attention to the usage of mobile phones as they carry them to all places.

"Phone and computer peripherals like keyboard, mouse, etc. should be covered with transparent plastic covers which can be cleaned without interfering with their function. Cleaning hands by soap or alcohol-based hand sanitizer before and after contact with phone and between contact with other surfaces can decrease the risk of potential transmission.

"Using a handsfree headset, dedicated operator/assistant per ward handling the communication via common line in hospitals while on duty can enable communication without compromising safety," Dr Srinivas said.

Thiruvananthapuram, Mar 6: A 12-member team from Telangana on Friday visited Kerala to study how the state contained the spread of novel coronavirus.

Interacting with the team, Kerala Health Minister KK Shailaja said, "The team will be given a presentation at National Health Mission and they will visit Alappuzha district to know how the health facilities are set up by Kerala Health Department on the grassroots level."

"The team comprising doctors and senior health officials will visit the control room set up by the Health Department and also will attend daily review meetings. They will also visit an isolation ward in the hospital and interact with doctors and nurses, " the minister said.

She added, "Kerala model is being followed by other states too. All states are working together and the country as a whole is fighting the coronavirus. They are sharing our experience. All of India is standing together. Contact tracing and isolation is the most important part."

Dr Mahaboob Khan, part of the Telangana team told media persons, that the discussion with the health minister was fruitful.

"Kerala was the first state in India where a positive coronavirus case was reported. All three positive cases reported have been discharged after testing negative. So we wanted to study how Kerala was able to contain it and the health system in place here, " he said.