A few may quit Cong; 7 JDS legislators ready to join; some BJP MLAs also willing: Param

Feb 2: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second budget in seven months disappointed investors who were hoping for big-bang stimulus to revive growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.

The fiscal plan -- delivered by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday -- proposed tax cuts for individuals and wider deficit targets but failed to provide specific steps to fix a struggling financial sector, improve infrastructure and create jobs. Stocks slumped as a proposal to scrap the dividend distribution tax for companies failed to impress investors.

"Far from being a game changer, the budget provides little in terms of short-term growth stimulus,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and South East Asia economics at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore. “While income tax cuts will provide some relief on the consumption front, the multiplier effect is low and the overall stance of the budget is not expansionary."

India has gone from being the world’s fastest-growing major economy three years ago, expanding at 8%, to posting its weakest performance in more than a decade this fiscal year, estimated at 5%.

While the government has taken a number of steps in recent months to spur growth, they’ve fallen short of spurring demand in the consumption-driven economy. Saturday’s budget just added to the glum sentiment.

Okay Budget

“It’s an okay budget but not firing on all cylinders that the market was hoping for,” said Andrew Holland, chief executive officer at Avendus Capital Alternate Strategies in Mumbai.

The government had limited scope for a large stimulus given a huge shortfall in revenues in the current year. The slippage induced Sitharaman to invoke a never-used provision in fiscal laws, allowing the government to exceed the budget gap by 0.5 percentage points. The result: the deficit for the year ending March was widened to 3.8% of gross domestic product from a planned 3.3%.

On Friday, India’s chief economic adviser Krishnamurthy Subramanian said reviving economic growth was an “urgent priority” and deficit goals could be relaxed to achieve that. The adviser’s Economic Survey estimated growth will rebound to 6%-6.5% in the year starting April.

The fiscal gap will narrow to 3.5% next year, as the government budgeted for gross market borrowing to rise marginally to 7.8 trillion rupees from 7.1 trillion rupees in the current year. A plan to earn 2.1 trillion rupees by selling state-owned assets in the year starting April will also help plug the deficit.

Total spending in the coming fiscal year will increase to 30.4 trillion rupees, representing a 13% increase from the current year’s budget, according to latest data.

Key highlights from the budget:

* Tax on annual income up to 1.25 million rupees pared, with riders

* Dividend distribution tax to be levied on investors, instead of companies

* Farm sector budget raised 28%, transport infrastructure gets 7% more

* Spending on education raised 5%

* Fertilizer subsidy cut 10%

Analysts said the muted spending plan to keep the deficit in check will lead to more downside risks to growth in the coming months.

“It is very doubtful that the increase in expenditure will push demand much,” Chakravarthy Rangarajan, former governor at the Reserve Bank of India told BloombergQuint, adding that achieving next year’s budget deficit goal of 3.5% of GDP was doubtful.

With the government sticking to a conservative fiscal path, the focus will now turn to central bank, which is set to review monetary policy on Feb. 6. Given inflation has surged to a five-year high of 7.35%, the RBI is unlikely to lower interest rates.

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say:

The burden of recovery now falls solely on the Reserve Bank of India. With inflation breaching RBI’s target at present, any rate cuts by the central bank are likely to be delayed and contingent upon inflation falling below the upper end of its 2%-6% target range.

-- Abhishek Gupta, India economist

Governor Shaktikanta Das may instead focus on unconventional policy tools such as the Federal Reserve-style Operation Twist -- buying long-end debt while selling short-tenor bonds -- to keep borrowing costs down.

Kannur, Jan 23: A member of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh has been arrested for attempting to create unrest in Kerala by hurling crude bombs at RSS office and police picket. The miscreants had reportedly planned to pass the blame on others.

The bomb attack took place of January 16 in Kerala’s Kannur. The accused Prabesh, an RSS hardliner, was arrested from Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu.

According to the Kerala police Prabesh hurled steel bombs towards the police picket in front of Kathirur Manoj Smrithi Kendram, an RSS office.

"He threw bombs during the wee hours of January 16 morning. Following the arrest he has confessed that his aim was RSS office. Kannur, being politically sensitive region, any attack on political party offices will be regarded as an act by the opponent," Kathirur SI Nijeesh said.

"We had a police picket in the region for a few months now. We are assuming he wanted to create unrest in the area by removing the police from the spot. We could contain the situation because of the CCTV visuals. He was identified immediately after the incident. Following the attack he went to Coimbatore and was hiding there. Our team nabbed him from Coimbatore," he said.

The police have also said that the accused Prabesh had many criminal cases pending against him including those under Explosive Substances Act, 1883. He was nabbed by a team lead by Kathirur SI Nijeesh, CPO Rohith and Vijeesh.

The RSS office in the region is named after Kathirur Manoj a senior karyakarta (worker) who was allegedly killed by the CPI(M) activists in 2014. Kathirur Manoj was the prime accused in the attempt to murder of senior CPI(M) leader P Jayarajan in 1999.

Bengaluru, Jun 2:  With easing of COVID-19 lockdown curbs, the Karnataka excise department has accorded permission for fresh brewing or production of beer and to sell it in microbreweries as takeaways.

"Permission is hereby accorded to microbreweries for fresh brewing/production and sale of beer as takeaway in glass, ceramic or stainless steel container (up to 2 litre) till 30-06-2020, or until further orders, whichever is earlier," the Excise Commissioner in a letter dated June 1 to Deputy Excise Commissioners of all districts said.

The opening and closing hours of the microbreweries shall be from 9 am to 9 pm, it said, adding that all other conditions as laid down will remain unaltered.

Earlier, in a letter dated May 12, the Excise Commissioner had "conditionally" granted permission for microbreweries to sell their beer stock as takeaway on experimental basis for the period from May 14 to June 30 or until exhaustion of existing beer stock, whichever is earlier.

It had called for measures like social distancing, cleanliness, usage of masks and sanitizers, among others, and had said, microbreweries situated in containment zones are not allowed to function.