Finally, this techie returns from US to meet his lonely mom, finds her skeleton

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

Mysuru, Feb 26: The Pre-University Education Department was taking several measures to prevent paper leaks during the II PU examinations, scheduled to commence from March 4, a statement said on Tuesday.

Among the few measures that the board has chalked out, students would not be allowed to leave the examination hall till the last bell. In case of any emergency, the student could leave the exam hall but s/he would be required to surrender the question paper to authorities in the hall.

This is being done to ensure question papers aren’t circulated during exam hours by those who exit the hall before the last bell.

Bengaluru, Jan 19: Technology hub Hyderabad has edged out 129 other cities in the world to emerge as the world's most dynamic city, according to the seventh edition of the City Momentum Index by global real estate services firm JLL.

The city has pushed Bengaluru to second place to regain the top position after a gap of one year. Chennai is at fifth and Delhi is at sixth place.

While Hyderabad and Bengaluru are the top two cities globally for socio-economic momentum, a more active real estate market helped elevate Hyderabad to first position in the overall ranking, says the report released by the US-based Jones Lang Lasalle (JLL) on Saturday night.

Hyderabad recorded the highest office net absorption in 2019 (as a proportion of existing stock) of any city globally, while it is also among the world's best-performing cities for prime office rental growth.

While all seven major Indian cities feature in this year's Global Top 20, cities in south India in particular - Hyderabad, Bengaluru and Chennai (5th) "are ahead of their northern peers, supported by favourable demographics and business climates".

"Their expanding tech industries and start-up cultures make them a magnet for young and ambitious talent from across the country, with Bengaluru having one of the world's largest concentrations of 'engine room' population (20-40-year-olds), typically the most dynamic and productive age cohort," says the report.

Kolkata and Mumbai made it to the top 20 and stood at the 16th and 20th positions. Despite an economic slowdown, India leads the 2020 Index with seven Indian cities in the top 20.

"Commercial real estate in south Indian cities is growing at a rapid pace. Hyderabad has seen tremendous growth in 2019 in line with that of Bengaluru. The city has actively embraced technology-driven economic growth and attracted large tech giants and e-commerce players. The state government's focus on business-friendly policies and provision of high-quality infrastructure along with availability of quality talent pool and superior quality business parks has given Hyderabad a competitive edge," said Ramesh Nair, CEO and Country Head - India, JLL.

Telangana's Minister for Information Technology and Industry K T Rama Rao said he was thrilled over Hyderabad not only regaining the top slot but also over the fact that it was competing with cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai in innovation economy.

The minister said 50 percent weightage from socio-economic indicators beside the remaining 50 percent from commercial and real estate was also heartening.

KTR, as the minister is popularly known, noted that in 2014 when Telangana attained statehood, Hyderabad was not even in the list. He recalled that when Telangana was formed there were many doubts as to what would happen to Hyderabad. "It entered the top 20 in 2015 and rose to fifth place in 2016 and third position in 2017. Hyderabad topped the list in 2018 and finished second the last year. This year it is back at the top," he said.

The JLL City Momentum Index identifies a number of key growth drivers, including talent attraction, the expansion of innovation hubs and better urban planning, that cities can employ to meet the challenges faced by rapid momentum.

Several cities in the top 20 stand out as they transform their urban environments in pursuit of a low-carbon future. In India, Hyderabad is looking at technology to reduce the demand for air conditioning with cool roofs that reflect sunlight and absorb less heat, it said.

"The growth of "micro-mobility" is another positive step, illustrated by Hyderabad's introduction of smart bikes and electric cars. Smart city solutions, such as bike rentals, improved quality of life, help increase inclusion and aid in the transition to a low carbon environment."