Fingers, hands raised against PM Modi will be chopped off: Bihar BJP chief

Jan 24: India’s economy appears to be shaking off a slump, as activity in the services and manufacturing sectors expanded for a second straight month in December.

The needle on a gauge measuring so-called animal spirits signaled the economy may be taking a turn for the better, as five of the eight high-frequency indicators tracked by Bloomberg News came in stronger last month. The dial was last at the current position in August.

“Animal spirits” is a term coined by British economist John Maynard Keynes to refer to investors’ confidence in taking action, and the gauge uses the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month numbers.

The nascent recovery would need a helping hand, with expectations building that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will provide some stimulus when she presents the budget Feb. 1. Official forecasts show the economy is set to expand at 5% in the year ending March 2020 -- the weakest pace in more than a decade.

Here are the details of the dashboard:

Business Activity

The dominant services index rose to the highest level in five months in December as improving new work orders helped boost activity. The seasonally adjusted Markit India Services PMI index climbed to 53.3 from 52.7 in November, helping post a strong end to the calendar year.

India’s manufacturing PMI also rose -- to 52.7 from 51.2 a month ago -- boosted by the fastest increase in new orders since July. A reading above 50 means expansion while anything below that signals contraction.

The uptick in business confidence was accompanied by a rise in inflationary pressures, the survey showed. That trend may keep monetary policy makers from resuming interest-rate cuts anytime soon, leaving most of the heavy-lifting to boost growth with the government.

“The relative stability in macro indicators over the past two months suggests that the worst is behind, but the recovery is likely to be prolonged,” said Teresa John, an economist at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. in Mumbai. “Still, sluggish growth and rising inflation indicate that India may well remain in stagflation for most of 2020.”

Exports

Exports remained a laggard, falling 1.8% in December from a year ago. The drag was mainly because of a fall in export of engineering goods, which constitute a third of India’s non-oil exports.

Capital goods imports continued to contract and was lower by 16.5% year-on-year in December after a 22% drop in November. This was the seventh consecutive month of continuous decline, underscoring the weakness in the capex cycle, according to IDFC First Bank.

Consumer Activity

Weakness in demand for passenger vehicles persisted, with local sales falling 1.2% in December from a year ago, according to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. That capped the worst yearly passenger vehicle sales on record. A Nielsen study on demand for fast-moving consumer goods showed volume growth dropped to 3.5% in the last quarter of 2019 from 3.9% in the same period of 2018.

Funding conditions held out hope, showing considerable improvement in December, according to the Citi India Financial Conditions Index. Credit growth remained tardy though, with demand for loans rising at a slower 7.1% pace from a year ago compared with a nearly 8% growth in November.

Industrial Activity

Industrial output rose for the first time in four months in November. The pick up was broad-based, led by mining, manufacturing and electricity. Mining and manufacturing, in particular, posted a second month of sequential growth. Production of consumer goods also rose after a few months of contraction.

The index of eight core infrastructure industries, which feeds into the index of industrial production, however, declined 1.5% in November from a year ago -- the fourth straight month of contraction. That was on account of shrinking production of electricity, steel, coal, natural gas and crude oil. Both the core sector and industrial output numbers are reported with a one-month lag.

Bengaluru, Jul 1: The Meteorological Department has issued a yellow alert and forecasted heavy rains for three coastal districts and 12 more in the south interior Karnataka region, an official said on Tuesday afternoon.

"Thunderstorm with lightning is likely to occur at isolated places over south interior Karnataka from Tuesday to Wednesday," said a Met official.

For Bengaluru city, the Met department has forecast a generally cloudy sky with light rain for the next three days.

Coastal Karnataka -- Dakshina Kannada, Udupi and Uttara Kannada districts have been issued a yellow alert for the next two days with thundershowers and gusty winds.

Winds blowing at speed of 40-50 km per hour are expected on the coast and the Met department warned fishermen against venturing into the sea.

Meanwhile, heavy showers on Sunday night in Vijayapura district gave rise to flash floods in the Doni river and Sogali stream.

An overflowing Doni river submerged the Talikote - Hadaginal bridge, a remnant from the colonial era, and also submerged some agricultural lands. Only recently, these agricultural lands were sown with toor dal plants.

Similarly, many SSLC students also struggled to cross the bridge to reach their examination centres on Monday.

Many houses were also flooded due to the rainfall at Nalatwad and Talikote taluk. Muddebihal, Basavana Bagewadi and Sindagi taluks also witnessed heavy rainfall.

A 40-year-old farmer from Dharwad district was washed away in the Tuppari Halla stream, which is prone to flood during the monsoon season.

Likewise, a truck carrying cotton also got washed away in a stream in Yadgir district.

"There is an offshore trough and a circulation, because of which rain will continue in the coastal area. Only Malnad has not got sufficient rain this year. Probably after two days, Malnad may get some rains," Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC) Director Srinivas Reddy said. Otherwise, entire state got normal rainfall, said Reddy, though it is not active over Malnad.

New Delhi, Jul 21: A 42-year-old contractual doctor, who was working with Delhi government's National Health Mission, passed away yesterday due to covid-19.

Dr Javed Ali had been on the frontline in the fight against the highly contagious illness since March. He tested positive for coronavirus on June 24 and was hospitalised for treatment over the next three weeks.

For the last 10 days, he was on a ventilator. Yesterday morning, Dr Ali breathed his last at the AIIMS trauma centre. He is survived by his wife and two children - a six-year-old son and a 12-year-old daughter.

"I am proud of my husband. He kept working till the end and he is a martyr. He did not take even one day off since March. He worked even on Eid," Dr Heena Kausar, his wife, told media persons.

The cost for the initial treatment at the private hospital was also borne by the family. "No treatment cost was covered when he was at a private hospital initially. We spent around Rs 6 lakh from our own pockets," she said.