New Delhi, May 24: The Indian economy is likely to slip into recession in the third quarter of this fiscal as loss in income and jobs and cautiousness among consumers will delay recovery in consumer demand even after the pandemic, says a report.
According to Dun & Bradstreet's latest Economic Observer, the country's economic recovery will depend on the efficacy and duration of implementation of the government's stimulus package.
"The multiplier effect of the stimulus measures on the economy will depend on three key aspects i.e. the time taken for effecting the withdrawal of the lockdown, the efficacy of implementation and duration of execution of the measures announced," Dun & Bradstreet India Chief Economist Arun Singh said.
The report noted that the government's larger-than-expected stimulus package is likely to re-start economic activities.
Besides, measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India like reducing the repo rate by a further 40 basis points to 4 per cent, extending the moratorium period by three months and facilitating working capital financing will also help stimulate the momentum.
Singh said while the measures announced by the government are "positive", most of them have been directed towards strengthening the supply side of the economy, and "it is to be noted that supply needs to be matched with demand", he said.
Besides, "in the absence of cash-in-hand benefits under the government's stimulus package, demand for goods and services is expected to remain depressed", he added.
He further said the loss in income and employment opportunities, and cautiousness among consumers, will lead to a delayed recovery in consumer demand, even after the pandemic. As debt and bad loan levels increase, the banking sector might face challenges.
The report further noted that even as the monetary stimulus is expected to inject liquidity and stimulate demand for a wider section of the economy, the channelisation of funds from the financial institutions will be subjected to several constraints.
The foremost concern being increase in risk averseness, as the balance sheets of firms, households, and banks/NBFCs have weakened considerably and low demand for funds by firms as production activities have been on a standstill during the lockdown period, Singh said.
India has been under lockdown since March 25 to contain the spread of the coronavirus, resulting in supply disruptions and demand compression.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi imposed a nationwide lockdown to control the spread of coronavirus on March 25. It has been extended thrice, with some relaxations. The fourth phase of the lockdown is set to expire on May 31.
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Sngha parivar sarkar and Corporate pulled India 10 years back and Looting India by increasing price for oil, gas and other products, neglecting farmers, unorganised sectors, drop in GDP, high cost living, middle class people dropped thier status to poor category, no planning comision, no pancha warshika yogana.....
for common people India became hell and totally frustrated. Rulers are wwasting time to divide india in the name of religion instead of working on developments. Uneducated and stupid personality like him ruling India including burocrates. qualification is not a eligibility to rule in India. Only hate mongers are selected for all the positions. We cannot blame them as the great fools are Peoples of India repeatedly electing hate mongers. will dream "acche din ayega" jai hind
Who he is "BASTURD" chopping finger; if it is against "Stupid modi"
Cheddi sandesh spotted..!
Well said mr. Nityanand Rai. Unculture Indian people dont know how to respect our hon. PM
I am rising my middle finger against Modi. Fool. Chop my finger
If you talk againts INDIAN constituiton ready to face the worst or public may drag you from the position.
Modi is the PM elected represnetative not a God. World has seen several dictators and thier worst end.
So suggest not to jump.
All the comments all we hear is the man agenda and advise from Nagpur else who will talk such anti INDIA slogans.
The more U bring people to do EVIL , the more, RSS will reward the bow bow leaders. and a fact done with the devils to destroy the young hindu generation to do evil in the society.
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