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Dubai, May 7: Saudi Arabia will emerge as the victor of the oil price war that sent global crude markets into a spin last month, according to two experts in the energy industry.

Jason Bordoff, professor and founding director of the Center for Global Energy policy at New York’s Columbia University, said: “While 2020 will be remembered as a year of carnage for oil nations, at least one will most likely emerge from the pandemic stronger, both economically and geopolitically: Saudi Arabia.”

Writing in the American publication Foreign Policy, Bordoff said that the Kingdom’s finances can weather the storm from lower oil prices as a result of the drastically reduced demand for oil in economies under pandemic lockdowns, and that it will end up with higher oil revenues and a bigger share of the global market once it stabilizes.

Bordoff’s view was reinforced by Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell and one of the longest-standing directors of Saudi Aramco. In an interview with the Gulf Intelligence energy consultancy, he said that low-cost oil producers such as Saudi Arabia would emerge from the pandemic with increased market share.

“Oil is the only commodity where the lowest-cost producers have contained their production and allowed high-cost producers to benefit. When demand recovers this year or next, we will emerge from it with the lowest-cost producers having increased their market share,” Moody-Stuart said.

Bordfoff said that it would take years for the high-cost American shale industry to recover to pre-pandemic levels of output. “Depending on how long oil demand remains depressed, US oil production is projected to decline from its pre-coronavirus peak of around 13 million barrels per day.

“Shale's heady growth in recent years (with production growing by about 1 million to 1.5 million barrels per day each year) also reflected irrational exuberance in financial markets. Many US companies struggling with uneconomical production only managed to stay afloat with infusions of cheap debt. One quarter of US shale oil production may have been uneconomic even before prices crashed,” he said.

Moody-Stuart said that recent statements about cuts to the Saudi Arabian budget as a result of falling oil revenues were “an important step to wean the population of the Kingdom off an entitlement feeling. It means that everybody is joining in it.”

The former Shell boss said that other big oil companies would follow Shell’s recent decision to cut its dividend for the first time in more than 70 years. But he added that Aramco would stick by its commitment to pay $75 billion of dividends this year.

“When a company looks at its forecasts it looks ahead for one year, so for this year it (the dividend) is fine,” he said.

Bordoff added that Saudi Arabia’s action in cutting oil production in response to the pandemic would improve its global position.

“Saudi Arabia has improved its standing in Washington. Following intense pressure from the White House and powerful senators, the Kingdom’s willingness to oblige by cutting production will reverse some of the damage done when it was blamed for the oil crash after it surged production in March,” he said.

“Only a few weeks ago, the outlook for Saudi Arabia seemed bleak. But looking out a few years, it’s difficult to see the Kingdom in anything other than a strengthened position,” Bordoff said.

Riyadh, Mar 11: Energy titan Saudi Aramco said Tuesday it will boost crude oil supplies to 12.3 million barrels per day in April, flooding markets as it escalates a price war with Russia.

Riyadh had already slashed its price for April delivery after Russia refused its proposal that producer alliance OPEC+ orchestrate a co-ordinated cut of 1.5 million barrels per day.

The production cut had been mooted to shore up global oil prices, which have gone into meltdown as the deadly new coronavirus casts a pall over the world economy, but now price cuts and rising output indicate an unravelling of OPEC+ co-operation.

"Saudi Aramco announces that it will provide its customers with 12.3 million barrels per day of crude oil in April," the company said in a statement to the Saudi stock exchange.

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter has been pumping some 9.8 million bpd so its announcement on Tuesday means it will be adding at least 2.5 million bpd from April.

"The Company has agreed with its customers to provide them with such volumes starting 1 April 2020. The Company expects that this will have a positive, long-term financial effect," the statement said.

Saudi Arabia says it has an output capacity of 12 million bpd but it is not known for how long it can sustain such levels.

The kingdom also has millions of barrels of crude stored in strategic reserves to be used when needed and is expected to use it to provide the extra supply to the global market.

"Production above 12 million bpd shows the Saudis have something to prove," director of Britain-based RS Energy Bill Farren-Price said.

"This is a grab for market share. The taps are open and the prices have been cut sharply," Farren-Price told AFP.

In a quick response, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow could boost production in the short term "by 200,00-300,000 bpd, with a potential of 500,000 bpd in the near future".

But he stressed that Moscow was in favour of extending a December agreement that had seen OPEC and Russia agree to cut production by 500,000 barrels per day in 2020, lowering output from October 2018 levels by 1.7 million barrels per day.

The events of recent days have signalled a disintegration of collaboration between OPEC and Russia.

Russia is a non-OPEC member and the world's second-biggest oil producer, but Moscow and other non-members have in recent years co-operated with the oil cartel in an arrangement known as OPEC+.

The Saudi price cuts over the weekend, which were the first salvo in the price war, sent oil prices crashing -- registering the single biggest one-day loss in three decades on Monday.

Saudi Arabia draws around 70 per cent of its revenues from oil, and the revenues are key to ambitious reform programmes launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.