Flood situation continues to create havoc in Bihar, UP; death toll reaches 170

Munbai/New Delhi, May 4: India expects bad debts at its banks could double after the coronavirus crisis brought the economy to a sudden halt, a senior government official and four top bankers said.

Indian banks are already grappling with 9.35 trillion rupees ($123 billion) of soured loans, which was equivalent to about 9.1% of their total assets at the end of September 2019.

"There is a considered view in the government that bank non-performing assets (NPAs) could double to 18-20% by the end of the fiscal year, as 20-25% of outstanding loans face a risk of default," the official with direct knowledge of the matter said.

A fresh surge in bad debt could hit credit growth and delay India's recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

"These are unprecedented times and the way it's going we can expect banks to report double the amount of NPAs from what we've seen in earlier quarters," the finance head of a top public sector bank told Reuters.

The official and bankers declined to be named as they were not officially authorized to discuss the matter with media.

India's finance ministry declined to comment, while the Reserve Bank of India and Indian Banks' Association, the main industry body, did not immediately respond to emails seeking comment.

The Indian economy has ground to a standstill amid a 40-day nationwide lockdown to rein in the spread of coronavirus cases.

The lockdown has now been extended by a further two weeks, but the government has begun to ease some restrictions in districts that are relatively unscathed by the virus.

India has so far recorded nearly 40,000 cases of the coronavirus and more than 1,300 deaths from COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus.

'RIDING THE TIGER'

Bankers fear it is unlikely that the economy will fully open up before June or July, and loans, especially those to small- and medium-sized businesses which constitute nearly 20% of overall credit, may be among the worst affected.

This is because all 10 of India's largest cities fall in high-risk red zones, where restrictions will remain stringent.

A report by Axis Bank said that these red zones, which contribute significantly to India's economy, account for roughly 83% of the overall loans made by its banks as of December.

One of the sources, an executive director of a public sector bank, said that economic growth had been sluggish and risks had been heightened, even ahead of the coronavirus crisis.

"Now we have this Black Swan event which means without any meaningful government stimulus, the economy will be in tatters for several more quarters," he said.

McKinsey & Co last month forecast India's economy could contract by around 20% in the three months through June, if the lockdown was extended to mid-May, and growth in the fiscal year was likely to fall 2% to 3%.

Bankers say the only way to stem the steep rise in bad loans is if the RBI significantly relaxes bad asset recognition rules.

Banks have asked the central bank to allow all loans to be categorized as NPAs only after 180 days, which is double the current 90-day window.

"The lockdown is like riding the tiger, once we get off it we'll be in a difficult position," a senior private sector banker said.

New Delhi, Jul 19: India's Covid-19 case fatality rate is "progressively falling" and is currently at 2.49 per cent, which is one of the lowest in the world, the Union Health Ministry said on Sunday, crediting efficient clinical management of hospitalised cases for it.

There are 29 states and union territories with a case fatality rate (CFR) lower than India's average, with five of them having a CFR of zero and 14 having fatality rate of less than 1 per cent.

The focused efforts of the Centre and state and UT governments on efficient clinical management of hospitalised cases have ensured that India's case fatality rate has fallen below 2.5 per cent, the ministry said.

With effective containment strategy, aggressive testing and standardized clinical management protocols based on holistic standard of care approach, the CFR has significantly dipped, it said.

"The CFR is progressively falling and currently, it is 2.49 per cent. India has one of the lowest fatality rates in the world," the ministry said.

From 2.82 per cent over a month earlier, India's Covid-19 case fatality rate declined to 2.72 per cent on July 10 and has further reduced to 2.49 per cent presently.

Under the guidance of the Centre, the state and UT governments have ramped up testing and hospital infrastructure by combining public and private sector efforts, the ministry said.

Many states have conducted the population surveys to map and identify the vulnerable population like the elderly, pregnant women and those with co-morbidities.

This, with the help of technological solutions like mobile apps, has ensured keeping the high-risk population under continuous observation, thus aiding early identification, timely clinical treatment and reducing fatalities, the ministry said.

"At the ground level, frontline health workers like ASHAs (Accredited Social Health Activists) and ANMs (Auxiliary Nursing Midwives) have done a commendable job of managing the migrant population and to enhance awareness at the community level.

"As a result, there are 29 States and UTs with CFR lower than India's average. This shows commendable work done by public health apparatus of the country," the ministry said.

Manipur, Nagaland, Sikkim, Mizoram, Andaman and Nicobar Islands have zero case fatality rate.

States and UTs having a CFR below the national average include Tripura (0.19 pc),  Assam (0.23 pc), Kerala (0.34 pc), Odisha (0.51 pc), Goa (0.60 pc), Himachal Pradesh (0.75 pc), Bihar (0.83 pc), Telangana (0.93 pc), Andhra Pradesh (1.31 pc), Tamil Nadu (1.45 pc), Chandigarh (1.71 pc), Rajasthan (1.94 pc), Karnataka (2.08 pc) and Uttar Pradesh (2.36 pc).

India saw a record single-day jump of 38,902 Covid-19 cases pushing its tally to 10,77,618 on Sunday, while the total number of recoveries increased to 6,77,422.

A total of 23, 672 patients have recuperated in the past 24 hours, the highest so far in a day, according to the health ministry data updated at 8 AM.

According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), a cumulative total of 1,37,91,869 samples have been tested up to July 18 with 3,58,127 samples being tested on Saturday. 

Kochi, Apr 28: The Central government on Tuesday told Kerala High Court that the Kerala government will have to take up with other states the matter pertaining to bringing back COVID-19 affected Malayali nurses.

A Division Bench of Justice PV Asha and Justice V Shircy asked the Kerala government to examine if there is any solution that may be considered and orally noted the suggestion that perhaps a video-conference may be conducted between the states on the matter.

The matter was posted for further hearing on April 30.

Counsel for the Central government said that the "Centre has issued guidelines for the protection of health workers. But in this specific case, state governments have assured that nurses are being given proper treatment."
"The plea is on apprehensions that they are not being treated well in the other states.

Centre could help if there is any necessary requirement thereafter," the Centre's counsel said.

Advocate Abraham Vakkanal, appearing for the state government, said that state chief secretary has written to Union cabinet secretary to relax travel restrictions amid COVID-19 lockdown to bring back the nurses.

Vakkanal said that the state has sought permission and is waiting for approval and will take further actions if permission is received on the matter.

Advocate Anupama Subramaniam, appearing for the petitioner, said that 68 Malayali nurses in other states have reached out to inform that they are not being given treatment and that facilities for food and shelter are also not readily available for them.

Kerala High Court had earlier asked the Centre and the state government to file their reply on the plea.

The court was hearing a petition seeking to bring COVID-19 affected Malayali nurses back to Kerala from other States considering their "poor health and working conditions".