Food imports rise as Modi struggles to revive rural India

Jan 6: India’s Finance Ministry has delivered a challenge to its revenue collectors: meet tax targets despite $20 billion of corporate tax cuts.

Through a video conference on Dec. 16, officials were exhorted to meet the direct tax mop-up target of 13.4 trillion rupees ($187 billion), a government official told reporters. Collection in the eight months to November grew at 5% from a year earlier, against the desired 17%.

The missive shows Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s urgent need to buoy public finances in a slowing economy where April-November tax collections were half the amount budgeted. Authorities withheld some payments to states and have capped ministries’ expenditure as the fiscal deficit ballooned beyond the target.

The government’s efforts to maintain its deficit goal goes against advice from some quarters, including central bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, who urged more spending to spur economic growth.

It’s uncertain though how much room Modi’s administration has to boost expenditure, given that it may already be borrowing as much as 540 billion rupees through state-run companies, a figure that isn’t reflected on the federal balance sheet. Uncertainty about public finances pushed up sovereign yields in November and December, compelling Das to announce unconventional policies to keep costs in check.

“This is not a time to conceal the fiscal deficit by off-budget borrowing or deferring payments,” said Indira Rajaraman, an economist and a former member of the Reserve Bank of India’s board. “If they were to stick to the target, that would be catastrophic because there is so much pump-priming that is needed right now.”

GDP grew 4.5% in the quarter ended September, the slowest pace in more than six years as both consumption and investments cooled in Asia’s third-largest economy. Only government spending supported the expansion, piling pressure on Modi to keep stimulating.

S&P Global Ratings warned in December it may downgrade India’s sovereign ratings if economic growth doesn’t recover. Government support seems to be waning now, with ministries asked to cap spending in the final quarter of the financial year at 25% of the amount budgeted rather than 33% allowed earlier. This new rule will hamstring sectors including agriculture, aviation and coal, where not even half of annual targets have been disbursed.

As the federal government runs short of money, it’s been delaying payouts to state administrations.

Private hospitals have threatened to suspend cash-less services to government employees over non-payment of dues, while a builder informed the stock exchange about delayed rental payments from no less than the tax office itself.

India is considering a litigation-settlement plan that will allow companies to exit lingering tax disputes by paying a portion of the money demanded by the government, the Economic Times newspaper reported Saturday.

The move will help improve the ease of doing business besides unlocking a part of the almost 8 trillion rupees ($111 billion) caught up in these disputes. The step, which is being considered as part of the annual budget, could also bridge India’s fiscal gap.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has refused to comment on the deficit goal before the official budget presentation due Feb. 1.

A deviation from target, if any, “will need to be balanced with a credible consolidation plan further-out,” said Radhika Rao, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore.

Global health experts on Wednesday said novel coronavirus is here to stay for more than a year and called for aggressive testing to prevent its spread.

In an interaction with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, health experts Professor Ashish Jha and Professor Johan Giesecke talked about the COVID-19 pandemic as part of the series being aired on Congress social media channels.

While Jha exuded confidence that a vaccine will be available in a year's time, Prof Giesecke said India should practice a lockdown that is as 'soft' as possible, as a severe lockdown will ruin its economy very quickly.

"When the economy is opened up after lockdown, you have to create confidence among people," Harvard health expert Ashish Jha told Gandhi.

Jha is a professor of Global Health at TH Chan School of Public Health and Director, Harvard Global Health institute.

He said coronavirus is a '12-18 months' problem and the world is not going to be free of this till 2021.

The expert also called for the need for aggressive testing strategy for high-risk areas.

Gandhi, while interacting with the experts, said life is going to change post COVID-19.

"If 9/11 was a new chapter, this will be a new book," he remarked.

Professor Johan Giesecke, former chief scientist, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said India should have a 'soft lockdown'.

"The situation that India is in, I think, you should have a soft lockdown, as soft as possible," he said.

"I think for India, you will ruin your economy very quickly if you have a severe lockdown. It is better, skip the lockdown, take care of the old and the frail...," he noted.

New Delhi, Jan 4: In more troubles for the former Finance Minister and senior Congress leader P Chidambaram, the Enforcement Directorate (ED) on Friday questioned him for over six hours in its probe into the Air India aircraft deal case, first time since his release from Tihar jail almost a month ago.

A senior ED official told IANS, "We questioned Chidambaram for over six hours today in the ongoing probe into the Air India deal with Airbus."

According to financial probe agency officials, Air India had planned to buy over 111 aircraft from Airbus and Boeing during the erstwhile United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in 2009. This is the first time the ED has questioned the senior Congress leader in the Air India deal case.

The questioning of Chidambaram came for the first time since his release from the Tihar jail where he spent 106 days in connection with the INX Media money laundering case. He was released from Tihar on December 4 last year after he was granted bail by the Supreme Court. The former finance minister is also being investigated by the ED in a separate money-laundering cases of Aircel-Maxis deal.

An ED official said the contract to buy 43 aircraft from Airbus was finalised by a panel of ministers headed by Chidambaram in 2009. According to the ED, when the proposal to buy 43 aircraft from Airbus was sent to the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), there was a condition that the aircraft manufacturer would have to build training facilities and MRO (Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul) centres at a cost of Rs 70,000 crore. But later, when the purchase order was placed, the clause was removed.

The name of another UPA minister, Praful Patel, had also come up in the alleged scam in a charge sheet filed by the ED against corporate lobbyist Deepak Talwar on March 30 last year. Talwar was arrested last year by the ED after he was deported from the UAE.

The ED is probing the Air India-Indian Airlines merger; purchase of 111 aircraft from Boeing and Airbus at Rs 70,000 crore; ceding profitable routes and schedules to private airlines, and opening of training institutes with foreign investment.