Former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee, 93, admitted to AIIMS

Jan 13: India lost more than $1.33 billion to internet restrictions in 2019 as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government pushed ahead with his party’s Hindu nationalist agenda, raising tensions and sparking nationwide protests.

The worst shutdown has been in Kashmir, where after intermittent closures in the first half of the year, the internet has been cut off since Aug. 5 following the government’s decision to revoke the special autonomous status of the country’s only Muslim-majority state, a study said. The prologued closure was criticized by India’s highest court, which ruled Friday that the “limitless” internet shutdown enforced by the government for the last five months was illegal and asked that it be reviewed.

India imposed more internet restrictions than any other large democracy, according to the Cost of Internet Shutdowns 2019 report released by Top10VPN, a U.K.-based digital privacy and security research group. The South Asian nation recorded the third-highest losses after Iraq and Sudan, which lost $2.31 billion and $1.86 billion respectively to disruptions. Worldwide internet restrictions caused losses worth $8.05 billion, the report said.

The cost of internet blackouts was calculated using indicators from groups including the World Bank, International Telecommunication Union, and the Delhi-based Software Freedom Law Center. It includes social media shutdowns in its calculations.

India’s ministry of information and technology didn’t respond to an email seeking a response to the report’s findings.

‘Conservative Estimates’

Through 2019, India shut access to the internet for over 4,000 hours. The report added shutdowns in India were often narrowly targeted, down to the level of blocking city districts for a few hours to allow security forces to restore order. Many of these incidents were not included in the report.

“These are conservative estimates,” said Simon Migliano, head of research at U.K.-based Top10VPN. “Internet shutdowns are increasing and it shows a damaging trend.”

India’s other major internet disruptions coincided with two moves by the government that affect India’s Muslim minority. The first disruption took place in November in the states of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan after the Supreme Court handed a victory to Hindu groups over Muslim petitioners in a long-simmering dispute over a plot of land.

There were further disruptions in December when protests erupted against the introduction of a religion-based law that allows undocumented migrants of all faiths except Islam from neighbouring countries to seek Indian citizenship. The government enforced shutdowns across Uttar Pradesh and some Northeastern states in order to quell the protests, the report said.

The World Bank says that a lack of credit and drop in private consumption have led to a gloomy growth outlook for India with a steep cut in growth rate for the current fiscal year and only a modest gain projected for the next year.

India's growth rate is forecast to be only 5 per cent for the current fiscal year, weighed down by a growth of only 4.5 per cent in the July-September quarter, according to the 2020 Global Economic Prospects report released on Wednesday.

"In India, [economic] activity was constrained by insufficient credit availability, as well as by subdued private consumption," the Bank said.

The growth rate is forecast by the Bank to pick up to 5.8 per cent in the next fiscal year and to 6.1 per cent in 2021-22.

India's growth rate was 6.8 per cent in 2018-19.

The 5 per cent growth rate projection for the current financial year is a sharp cut of 2.5 per cent from the 7.5 per cent forecast made by the Bank in January last year, toppling it from the rank of the world's fastest growing economy.

India's performance follows a global trend of lowered growth weighed down by developed economies.

The report estimated world economic growth rate to be only 2.4 per cent last year and forecast it to edge up 0.1 per cent to 2.5 per cent in the current year.

Even with the lower growth rate of 5 per cent in the current fiscal year and 5.8 per cent forecast for the next, India holds the second rank among large economies, behind only China with an estimated growth rate of 6.1 per cent for 2019 and 5.9 per cent this year.

The report blamed "weak confidence, liquidity issues in the financial sector" and "weakness in credit from non-bank financial companies" for India's slowdown.

The Bank predicated India's recovery to 5.8 per cent in the coming financial year for India but "on the monetary policy stance remaining accommodative" and the assumption that "the stimulative fiscal and structural measures already taken will begin to pay off."

It also warned that sharper-than-expected slowdown in major external markets such as United States and Europe, would affect South Asia through trade, financial, and confidence channels, especially for countries with strong trade links to these economies."

The Bank said that the growth of advanced economies was 1.6 per cent last year and "is anticipated to slip to 1.4 per cent in 2020 in part due to continued softness in manufacturing."

In contrast the growth of emerging market and developing countries is expected to accelerate from 3.5 per cent last year to 4.1 per cent this year, the report said.

In South Asia, Bangladesh is estimated to have the highest growth rate of 7.2 per cent in the current fiscal year, although down from 8.1 per cent last fiscal year.

But its higher regional growth rates are coming off a lower base with a per capital gross domestic product of $1,698 compared to $2,010 for India.

Bangladesh is expected to grow by 7.3 per cent in the next financial year.

Pakistan's growth rate is estimated at only 2.4 per cent in the current fiscal year and is projected to rise to 3 per cent in the next, according to the Bank.

The Bank blamed monetary tightening in Pakistan for a sharp deceleration in fixed investment and a considerable softening in private consumption for the fall in growth rate from 3.3 per cent in the 2018-19 fiscal year.

Sri Lanka's growth rate was estimated to be 2.7 per cent last year and forecast to grow to 3.3 per cent this year.

Nepal grew by an estimated 6.4 per cent in the current fiscal year and will rise to 6.5 per cent in the next.