GDP data row | Arvind Subramanian calls for expert review

Agencies
December 9, 2018

New Delhi, Dec 9: Amid raging controversy over the revised economic growth numbers, former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian has called for an investigation by experts to clear doubts and build confidence while noting that the "puzzle" about the data needs to be explained.

He stressed that institutions that do not have technical expertise in calculating the GDP data should not be involved in the process, apparently referring to the Niti Aayog.

Subramanian, who criticised demonetisation in his new book titled 'Of Counsel: The Challenges of the Modi-Jaitley Economy', was, however, evasive when asked if he was consulted in the decision-making process on note ban.

"As an economist, I think there are some puzzles (new back series GDP data) there are some issues that need to be explained. Since there are things that need to be explained, we should, just to create confidence and eliminate any uncertainty or doubts, I think we should have experts who can investigate this thoroughly and give their answers," Subramanian told PTI in an interview.

On the controversy over the Niti Aayog's presence at the release of the GDP back series data by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) last month, he said that experts should have the main job of producing and explaining data.

"I think this (calculation of GDP) is a very technical task and technical experts should do the task, institutions that don't have technical expertise should not be involved in this," he said.

Recalibrating data of past years using 2011-12 as the base year instead of 2004-05, the CSO last month lowered the country's economic growth rate during the previous Congress-led UPA's regime.

Asked whether he was consulted in the decision-making process on demonetisation, the former CEA said, "In the book, I said that this is not a Kiss and Tell memoir, that is for gossip columnists."

Referring to criticism that he did not speak on demonetisation when he was working for the government and now he is raising the issue to sell his book, Subramanian said, "People will say whatever they say, right."

"But through my new book, I was drawing attention to the puzzle, the big puzzle, 86 per cent reduction in cash (after demonetisation) and yet the impact on the economy was much less," he said.

The former CEA also wondered whether much less impact on the economy after demonetisation was due to current GDP calculation method.

"Is it (less impact on the economy after note ban) because we are not measuring GDP correctly, or is it because our economy is very resilient," Subramanian who currently teaches at Harvard Kennedy School remarked.

In the six quarters before demonetisation, growth averaged 8 per cent and in the seven quarters after, it averaged about 6.8 per cent (with a four-quarter window, the relevant numbers are 8.1 per cent before and 6.2 per cent after)," Subramanian wrote in the chapter "The Two Puzzles of Demonetisation -- Political and Economic".

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on November 8, 2016, had announced demonetisation of Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes in a major assault on black money, fake currency and corruption.

On the recent spat between the government and RBI over a host of issues, Subramanian opined that the autonomy of RBI must be protected because the country will benefit by having strong institutions.

"But, I think there must also be cooperation, consultation and everything. Both have to happen," he asserted.

On rising intolerance in the country, Subramanian said the experience in the world shows that the countries witness better economic development if there is more social peace.

Subramanian was the CEA in finance ministry from October 2014 to June 2018.

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News Network
March 5,2020

New Delhi, Mar 5: Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan assuring that the government has the coronavirus crisis under control, is like the Titanic captain telling passengers not to panic as his ship was unsinkable, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said on Thursday.

Gandhi's remarks came after Vardhan's assurance in Parliament that the government is taking all necessary measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease) in India.

“The health minister saying that the Indian government has the coronavirus crisis under control, is like the Captain of the Titanic telling passengers not to panic as his ship was unsinkable,” Gandhi said in a tweet.

“It's time the government made public an action plan backed by solid resources to tackle this crisis,” he said.

RMS Titanic was a British passenger liner that sank in the North Atlantic Ocean in the early morning hours of April 15, 1912, after striking an iceberg during her maiden voyage from Southampton to New York.

Gandhi has been raising concerns over the coronavirus infection since long. In a February 12 tweet, he had said coronavirus is an extremely serious threat to “our people and our economy”.

“My sense is the government is not taking this threat seriously. Timely action is critical,” he had said.

Earlier this week, Gandhi had hit out at Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the detection of fresh coronavirus cases in the country, saying he should quit wasting India's time “playing the clown” with his social media accounts when India is facing an emergency.

With the message of “Here's how it's done”, Gandhi had also tweeted a video of Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong addressing Singaporeans on how to deal with the coronavirus.

The number of coronavirus cases in India is 29, including 16 Italians, the government had said on Wednesday, adding all international passengers will now be screened at airports, amid growing concern over the spread of the respiratory infection.

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News Network
January 2,2020

United Nations, Jan 2: Nearly 400,000 babies were born around the world on New Year's Day with India recording the highest number of these births worldwide at 67,385, the UN children's agency said.

An estimated 392,078 babies were born around the world on New Year's Day, according to UNICEF. Of this, an estimated 67,385 babies were born in India, the most globally. China comes in second with 46,299 births.

The beginning of a new year and a new decade is an opportunity to reflect on our hopes and aspirations not only for our future, but the future of those who will come after us,” UNICEF Executive Director Henrietta Fore said.

As the calendar flips each January, we are reminded of all the possibility and potential of each child embarking on her or his life's journey—if they are just given that chance.”

Fiji in the Pacific most likely delivered 2020's first baby, while the US, the last of the New Year's Day. Globally, over half of these births were estimated to have taken place in eight countries - India (67,385), China (46,299), Nigeria (26,039), Pakistan (16,787), Indonesia (13,020), United States of America (10,452), Democratic Republic of Congo (10,247) and Ethiopia (8,493).

Each January, UNICEF celebrates babies born on New Year's Day, an auspicious day for child birth around the world, it said. However, for millions of newborns around the world, the day of their birth is far less auspicious.

In 2018, 2.5 million newborns died in just their first month of life; about a third of them on the first day of life. Among those children, most died from preventable causes such as premature birth, complications during delivery, and infections like sepsis. In addition, more than 2.5 million babies are born dead each year.

UNICEF said over the past three decades, the world has seen remarkable progress in child survival, cutting the number of children worldwide who die before their fifth birthday by more than half. But there has been slower progress for newborns. Babies dying in the first month accounted for 47 per cent of all deaths among children under five in 2018, up from 40 per cent in 1990.

UNICEF's Every Child Alive campaign calls for immediate investment in health workers with the right training, who are equipped with the right medicines to ensure every mother and newborn is cared for by a safe pair of hands to prevent and treat complications during pregnancy, delivery and birth.

Too many mothers and newborns are not being cared for by a trained and equipped midwife or nurse, and the results are devastating,” said Fore. “We can ensure that millions of babies survive their first day and live into this decade and beyond if every one of them is born into a safe pair of hands.”

India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country around 2027. According to UN estimates, India is expected to add nearly 273 million people between 2019 and 2050, while the population of Nigeria is projected to grow by 200 million. Together, these two countries could account for 23 per cent of the global population increase to 2050.

China, with 1.43 billion people in 2019, and India, with 1.37 billion, have long been the two most populous countries of the world, comprising 19 and 18 per cent, respectively, of the global total in 2019. Through the end of the century, India is estimated to remain the world's most populous country with nearly 1.5 billion inhabitants, followed by China with just under 1.1 billion, Nigeria with 733 million, the US with 434 million, and Pakistan with 403 million inhabitants.

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News Network
June 11,2020

New Delhi, Jun 11: Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot has obliquely hinted that the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is pulling out all stops to destabilise the Congress-led government by luring some of the ruling party’s members of the legislative assembly (MLAs) with Rs 25 crore each.

He alleged that the BJP’s plan is similar to that of toppling the erstwhile Kamal Nath-led government in Madhya Pradesh (MP) and some of his party lawmakers have been offered Rs 10 crore each in advance of the promised sum of Rs 25 crore.

The CM made these allegations while speaking to media persons late on Wednesday night, when the Congress took its 107 party MLAs and 13 independent lawmakers to a resort located on the outskirts of Jaipur for a meeting ahead of the upcoming Rajya Sabha polls for three seats from the desert state slated to be held on June 19.

The 120 MLAs will be shifted to the resort on Thursday.

“Our MLAs are intelligent, alert, and united. Rajasthan is the only state in the country, where 13 independent MLAs supported our government for neither exchange of any money nor post. However, the condition on which our MLAs left the party for the BJP in MP is not good,” Gehlot said.

Rajasthan government’s chief whip Mahesh Joshi in a complaint to the director-general, anti-corruption bureau (ACB), has alleged attempts to poach Congress MLAs and the independent lawmakers, who are supporting the Gehlot-led government.

“Attempts are being made to destabilise the government in Rajasthan on the lines of Karnataka and MP,” Joshi alleged.

Gehlot said that he would hold another round of meeting with the 107 Congress and 13 independent MLAs on Thursday.

The CM also targeted Prime Minister Narendra Modi, alleging that the Upper House elections were postponed under pressure because the BJP could not poach an adequate number of MLAs in Rajasthan and Gujarat.

He blamed the saffron party for its lack of faith in democracy, as it has ensured the resignation of eight Congress MLAs in Gujarat since March, including three earlier this week.

Mukesh Pareek, BJP’s state spokesperson, refuted the allegations levelled by CM Gehlot against his party and asked the ruling Congress to give evidence of alleged poaching of its and independent lawmakers.

‘The Congress has failed to manage its own house. There is growing resentment in the party’s rank and file over its failed national leadership,” Pareek alleged.

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