New Delhi, Jan 6: The Central Statistics Office (CSO) on Friday forecast that GDP growth in the current financial year ending March 31 will slow to a four-year low of 6.5%, from the provisional 7.1% pace seen in 2016-17, dragged down by deceleration in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
Gross Value Added (GVA) was also projected to expand by 6.1% in 2017-18, slowing from 6.6% in the preceding fiscal year, according to the first advance estimates of national income for 2017-18, released by the CSO.
Within this, the GVA growth rate for ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ is expected to slow sharply to 2.1%, compared with the previous year’s 4.9% pace. Manufacturing sector growth has been forecast at 4.6% in 2017-18, compared with the 7.9% expansion provisionally estimated for 2016-17.
“In agriculture, what we are seeing is a base effect because last year saw a very high growth rate because it followed two years of drought,” Statistics and Programme Implementation Secretary and Chief Statistician of India TCA Anant said at a press conference in the national capital. “In terms of production, the total production would probably be the second highest in a very long time. It is not unusual growth in agriculture in a good year.”
The CSO’s GVA full-year growth estimate of 6.1%, compares with a 6.7% pace that the Reserve Bank of India had forecast at its December policy meeting.
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According to latest news reports in first week of January , 2018 , India’s GDP is estimated to grow at 6.5% during 2017-18 , a four year low. This estimated or feared circumstance in India’s economy is in line with the related predictions of this Vedic astrology writer in article - “ Astrologically speaking , some highlights for India in coming year year 2018” - published in a media on 19 October , 2017. Just reproducing the text relevant to the point from the said article :- “ The year 2018 looks to be …………Economy may pass through tense times on more than one front except art , entertainment , cinema , creative or innovative talents which may do well to contribute whatsoever to the economy”. It seems these alerts for taking more care and appropriate strategy in 2018 in relation to economy in India are meaningful.
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