Godse who killed Mahatma Gandhi was a deshbhakt, says terror accused Sadhvi

Bengaluru, Apr 20: Close on the heels of the Padarayanapura vandalism, Karnataka Cabinet on Monday decided to promulgate an ordinance that gives special powers to implementing authority and also provide protection to frontline health workers.

Briefing media after the Cabinet meeting here, Minister for Law J C Madhuswamy said that the ordinance will be on the lines of one promulgated by Kerala and Uttar Pradesh governments.

“Through the ordinance, a State Epidemic Act will be enacted to protect health workers and any non-cooperation will be punishable. Also, any attempt to deliberately spread the disease or float rumours will attract action,” he added.

Bengaluru, Feb 5: Despite installing a BJP government in Karnataka through disguised operation Kamala, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led union government has continued its step motherly attitude towards this south Indian state.

Under the new formula adopted to share central taxes among states Karnataka will be the worst-affected. Though the 15th Finance Commission has recommended a special grant of Rs 5,495 crore for the state for 2020-21, the Centre appears reluctant to pay up and instead has asked for the proposal to be reviewed.

During the Union budget, the report of the 14th Finance Commission headed by NK Singh for 2020-21 was tabled in Lok Sabha. It shows besides Karnataka, Telangana, Mizoram and Kerala saw their central tax share decrease, while Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra were top gainers.

Karnataka's share has decreased from 4.7% provided by the previous finance commission, to 3.6%. Acknowledging there is a steep decline in Karnataka's share from 2019-20, the finance commission has recommended a special grant of Rs 5,495 crore for the state.

Its share in 2019-20 was Rs 36,675 crore, but under the new formula, Karnataka will get only Rs 31,180 crore in 2020-21 from the divisible pool of Rs 8.5 lakh crore - a decline of 22.5%.

Also, the decrease for Karnataka comes on the back of a shortfall in 2019-20. While the state was entitled to Rs 39,806 crore from the divisible pool, it got only Rs 36,675 crore as the Centre suffered a tax revenue shortfall of Rs 1.5 lakh crore.

What is more disheartening though is the Centre's refusal to pay the special grant. Instead, the Union finance ministry has asked the finance commission to reconsider the recommendation. This has prompted the state to take up the issue with the Centre.

"The decline in central taxes devolution comes at a time when the state is going through a tough financial situation. Steps are being taken to ensure Karnataka gets justice," said chief secretary TM Vijay Bhaskar.

Officials said besides corrective measures for 2020-21, the focus will be on ensuring a fair share in subsequent years. However, Karnataka has little chance of getting its dues as the Centre is known to be prudent when distributing tax proceeds among states.

"The Centre has certain views on devolution. We have done our duty by submitting the interim report. It's up to the states to convince the Centre," said Ravi Kota, joint secretary of 15th Finance Commission.

Under the new formula, the commission changed the weightage for some of the six criteria it considers - population, area, forest cover, income distance, demographic performance and tax effort.

New Delhi, May 27: India’s fourth recession since Independence, first since liberalisation, and perhaps the worst to date is here, according to rating agency, Crisil.

CRISIL sees the Indian economy shrinking 5 per cent in fiscal 2021 (on-year), because of the Covid-19 pandemic. The first quarter will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction.

About 10 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. "So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals", Crisil said.

Crisil has revised its earlier forecast downwards. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since", it said.

While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent.

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

"The recession staring at us today is different," it added. For one, agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. Two, the pandemic-induced lockdowns have affected most non-agriculture sectors. And three, the global disruption has upended whatever opportunities India had on the exports front.

Economic conditions have slid precipitously since the April-end forecast of 1.8 per cent GDP growth for fiscal 2021 (baseline), Crisil said.

On the lockdown extension, it said that the government has extended the lockdown four times to deal with the rising number of cases, curtailing economic activity severely (lockdown 4.0 is ending on May 31).

The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected. June is unlikely to see major relaxations as the Covid-19 affliction curve is yet to flatten in India.

"Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others, could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers," Crisil said.

CRISIL also foresees economic activity in states with high Covid-19 cases to suffer prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

A rough estimate based on a sample of eight states, which contribute over half of India's GDP, shows that their 'red zones' (as per lockdown 3.0) contributed 42 per cent to the state GDP on average regardless of the share of such red zones.

On average, the orange zones contribute 46 per cent, while the green zones where activity is allowed to be close to normal contribute only 12 per cent to state GDP.

The economic costs are higher than earlier expectations, according to Crisil. The economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations.

Industrial production for March fell by over 16%. The purchasing managers indices for the manufacturing and services sectors were at 27.4 and 5.4, respectively, in April, implying extraordinary contraction. That compares with 51.8 and 49.3, respectively, in March.

Exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Added to that is the economic package without enough muscle. The government recently announced a Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package to support the economy. The package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy, but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term.

"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate (when we foresaw a growth in GDP)," it said.

"We believe a catch-up to the pre-crisis trend level of GDP growth will not be possible in the next three fiscals despite policy support. Under the base case, we estimate a 10 per cent permanent loss to real GDP (from the decadal-trend level), assuming average growth of about 7 per cent between fiscals 2022 and 2024," Crisil said.

Interestingly, after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), a sharp growth spurt helped catch up with the trend within two years. GDP grew 8.2 per cent on average in the two fiscals following the GFC. Massive fiscal spending, monetary easing and swift global recovery played a role in a V-shaped recovery.

To catch-up would require average GDP growth to surge to 11 per cent over the next three fiscals, something that has never happened before.

The research said that successive lockdowns have a non-linear and multiplicative effect on the economy a two-month lockdown will be more than twice as debilitating as a one-month imposition, as buffers keep eroding.

Partial relaxations continue to be a hindrance to supply chains, transportation and logistics. Hence, unless the entire supply chain is unlocked, the impact of improved economic activity will be subdued.

Therefore, despite the stringency of lockdown easing a tad in the third and the fourth phases, their negative impact on GDP is expected to massively outweigh the benefits from mild fiscal support and low crude oil prices, especially in the April-June quarter. "Consequently, we expect the current quarter's GDP to shrink 25 per cent on-year," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific.

Since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

Google's Community Mobility Reports show a sharp fall in movement of people to places of recreation, retail shops, public transport and workplace travel. While data for May shows some improvement in India, mobility trends are much below the average or baseline, and lower compared with countries such as the US, South Korea, Brazil and Indonesia.