Gold prices hit all-time high as covid spike lifts safe-haven demand

News Network
July 1, 2020

Jul 1: Gold prices in India hit an all-time high on Wednesday, tracking a global rally, as surging coronavirus cases in many countries raised the metal's safe-haven appeal.

Local gold futures hit an all-time high of Rs 48,871 ($646.66) per 10 grams in early trade, taking their gains to 25% in 2020 so far. The contract had gained nearly 25% in 2019.

However, this dampened the retail demand for gold in India, the world's second-largest consumer of the precious metal.

"Retail demand is negligible. Buyers are postponing purchases anticipating a correction in prices," said a Mumbai-based bank dealer with a bullion importing bank.

In thin trade, dealers were offering a discount of up to $22 an ounce over official domestic prices on Wednesday afternoon, up from the last week's $18. The domestic price includes a 12.5% import tax and 3% sales tax.

The country's gold imports in May plunged 99% from a year earlier as international air travel was banned and jewellery shops were closed amid a nationwide lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus.

In overseas market, spot gold firmed near an eight-year peak on Wednesday, as a spike in coronavirus cases in the United and States and many other countries has cast a shadow on hopes for a quicker global economic recovery, driving inflows into safe-haven assets.

According to a latest Reuters tally, the coronavirus has infected more than 10.48 million people worldwide so far.

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Agencies
June 8,2020

Idukki, Jun 8: Devikulam MLA S Rajendran from CPM along with supporters staged a protest by blocking the Munnar-Udumalpet interstate highway here on Monday, demanding that action to be taken to prevent wild elephants entering into human settlements and destroying properties.

The protest started at 9.30 am and demand was made that senior forest officials should give them assurance of putting an end to the problem.

A police team led by Munnar Deputy Superintendent of Police (SP) Ramesh Kumar was camping in the area.

Wild elephants from the nearby forest are frequently trespassing into Munnar and last night two elephants destroyed a vegetable shop in the town.

If it was a lone elephant that the locals nicknamed as Padayappa that used to enter the human settlement, now along with him a baby elephant is also coming to the town at night.

The locals have named the second elephant Ganeshan. Though there were instances of them destroying crops and eating from vegetable shops, till now the duo has not attacked humans.

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News Network
June 8,2020

New Delhi, Jun 8: India on Monday reported the highest single-day spike of 9,983 more COVID-19 cases and 206 deaths in the last 24 hours.

With this, the country's coronavirus count has reached 2,56,611, including 1,25,381 active cases, according to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

1,24,094 patients have been cured/discharged so far and 7,135 succumbed to the deadly virus. While one patient has migrated.

With 85,975 cases, Maharashtra is the worst-affected state in the country followed by Tamil Nadu at 31,667 cases.

A total of 1,08,048 samples were tested for coronavirus in the last 24 hours and overall 47,74,434 samples have been tested till now.

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News Network
July 16,2020

New Delhi, Jul 16: With India's economic growth sputtering, the Reserve Bank of India was expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle, but an uptick in near-term inflation could give the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee reason to pause for now.

Having cut its key lending rate by an aggressive 115 basis points (bps) in 2020, on top of 135 bps cuts in 2019, the RBI so far has had little success in spurring credit growth amid varying degrees of lockdowns across India.

Some economists and market insiders argue it may be prudent for the MPC, the policy committee, to hold its fire when it meets early next month.

"It's probably too early to administer a demand stimulus. The RBI still has room to cut rates, but we probably want to be more cautious of the timing," said Venkat Pasupuleti, portfolio manager at Dalton Investments.

"Maybe they should wait a quarter to see how things pan out once the lockdown situation is eased further."

Market participants have factored in at least a 25 bps rate cut by the MPC on August 6 while analysts are predicting a total 50-75 bps cuts over the rest of the fiscal year that runs to March 31.

The spike in the retail inflation rate above the RBI's mandated 2%-4% target range is another reason for the central bank to take a breather, analysts say.

Annual retail inflation rose to 6.09% in June, compared to 5.84% in March and sharply above a 5.30% median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, said the spike in both consumer and wholesale prices "could lead to a tempering in enthusiasm for material front-loaded policy support from here on."

Almost all economists however agreed the RBI cannot move away from its accommodative stance or call an end to the rate cutting cycle just yet.

India's economy grew at 3.1% in the March quarter - an eight year low - and some economists have predicted a contraction of more than 20% in the June quarter and a contraction of up to 5% in the fiscal year.

"Even in the event of a pause, we think the RBI and MPC would want to hold out the promise of more cuts," said A. Prasanna, economist with ICICI Securities.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a recent speech the need of the hour is to restore confidence, preserve financial stability, revive growth and recover stronger, suggesting inflation concerns are unlikely to deter the downward trajectory for rates too soon.

"The August policy decision would boil down to a judgment call over whether RBI can maintain easy monetary and financial conditions without the aid of a token rate cut," Prasanna said. 

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