Goldman Sachs sees worst India recession with 45% second quarter slump

News Network
May 18, 2020

May 18: Goldman Sachs expects India will experience its deepest recession ever after a poor run of data underscored the damaging economic impact of lockdowns in the world’s second-most populous nation.

Gross domestic product will contract by an annualized 45% in the second quarter from the prior three months, compared with Goldman’s previous forecast of a 20% slump. A stronger rebound of 20% is now seen for the third quarter, while projections for the fourth quarter and first of next year are unchanged at 14% and 6.5%.

Those estimates imply that real GDP will fall by 5% in the 2021 fiscal year, which would be deeper than any other recession India has ever experienced, Goldman economists Prachi Mishra and Andrew Tilton wrote in a note dated May 17.

India’s government has extended its nationwide lockdown until May 31, while further easing restrictions in certain sectors to boost economic activity, as coronavirus cases escalate across the country. The announcement followed Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s fifth briefing in as many days, in which she outlined details of the country’s $265 billion virus rescue package, which is equivalent to 10% of India’s GDP.

 “There have been a series of structural reform announcements across several sectors over the past few days,” the Goldman economists wrote. “These reforms are more medium-term in nature, and we, therefore, do not expect these to have an immediate impact on reviving growth. We will continue to monitor their implementation to gauge their effect on the medium-term outlook.”

Infections are surging across the South Asian nation of 1.3 billion people, with more than 91,300 infections, including 2,897 deaths as of Sunday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

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News Network
July 18,2020

Jaipur, Jul 18: BJP leader Laxmikant Bhardwaj filed a complaint against Congress leaders including Randeep Surjewala and Govind Singh Dotasra for associating Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat's name with an alleged audio clip related to "conspiring to topple" the elected government led by Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan.

"Mahesh Joshi, Randeep Surjewala, and other accused have regularly been giving false and inflammatory statements against the BJP to criminally damage its reputation so that the blame for the current sorry state of affairs of the Congress can be pinned on the BJP. With the ill-intention of damaging the BJP''s reputation, a conspiracy was formed at the Chief Minister''s residence situated at 8 Civil lines," read the letter written by BJP Rajasthan spokesperson Bhardwaj to the Station Officer of Ashok Nagar police station read.

"From there (CM's residence) imitation of (voices) of people were falsely told to be of that of reputed leaders from the BJP and a fake phone conversation was created through which the false narrative of crores of rupees being offered to buy off Congress MLAs was created. The accused involved in this conspiracy have severely misused their position and power and the whole crime has been conducted by one named Lokesh Sharma, who calls himself an OSD of the Chief Minister," the letter further stated.

The complaint letter also said that Lokesh Sharma had "released three audio tapes to media workers on July 16, 2020, somewhere around 8:25 pm through WhatsApp so that the defamatory material can be circulated on a large scale to fulfill the criminal intent."

Mr Bhardwaj said that a news report in the Jaipur edition of a Hindi newspaper, published on July 17, 2020, had conveyed that the audiotape was released by Mr Sharma.

He further said that Congress leaders Randeep Surjewala, Govind Singh Dotasra, in a press conference held on Friday read out the conversation in the audio tapes publically and "using them as a basis accused the BJP of throttling democracy, sabotaging the mandate, and toppling the government."

Through this conspiracy, Mr Bhardwaj said that hateful and insulting comments are being made on the BJP and its supporters, and "on the basis of this the Special Operation Group (SOG) has filed fake lawsuits under Section 124A of the Indian Penal Code and is also threatening BJP leaders of arrest."

The BJP leader has urged the police officer to file a complaint against Mr Sharma, Mr Surjewala, Mr Dotasra, and others involved in the alleged conspiracy and take necessary action and recover the equipment used by them.

On June 17, Congress spokesperson Randeep Surjewala had accused Union Cabinet Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat and Congress legislator Bhanwarlal Sharma of conspiring to topple the elected government led by Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan and subvert the voters' mandate.

"Yesterday, shocking tapes were aired by the media in which Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, BJP leader Sanjay Jain and Congress MLA Bhanwar Lal Sharma spoke about bribing MLAs and bringing down Rajasthan government. Congress has suspended MLAs Bhanwar Lal Sharma and Vishvendra Singh from the primary membership of the party. The party has also issued show-cause notices to them," Mr Surjewala had said.

"We demand Rajasthan government and Special Operations Group (SOG) to register FIR and arrest the culprits as plenty of evidence has surfaced now," he had further stated.

Mr Surjewala had read out a transcript of an audio of alleged horse-trading between rebel MLAs and BJP, stating, "BJP has breached the trust of people. The audio clip reveals a horse-trading deal. This is a dark chapter in the history of democracy."

"This time the Narendra Modi government has challenged the wrong state," the Congress leader had said. He had alleged that the BJP has been "conspiring to topple Rajasthan government and buy legislators' allegiance."

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News Network
April 5,2020

New Delhi, April 5: The number of coronavirus cases in India has surged past 3500 with 505 new cases in the last 24 hours from across the country.

According to the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, the total number of COVID-19 positive cases in the country has gone up to 3,577 as on Sunday. So far, 83 people have died of the coronavirus.

Among States, the tally in Maharashtra stood at 690. According to Maharashtra Health Minister Rajesh Tope, till now Mumbai has reported 29 positive cases, Pune 17, PCMC 4, Ahmednagar 3, Aurangabad 2 among others.

Here are the top developments of the day related to the pandemic.

1) Four new COVID-19 positive cases reported in Uttarakhand today, taking the total number of positive cases in the State to 26. Four persons have been treated and discharged till date, according to the Directorate of Health Services, Uttarakhand.

2) Prime Minister Narendra Modi today called up two former Presidents -- Pranab Mukherjee and Pratibha Patil and had a discussion on COVID-19 related issues. He also called up two former Prime Ministers -- Manmohan Singh and HD Deve Gowda -- to discuss COVID-19 situation.

3) The Prime Minister also called up leaders of various political parties like Sonia Gandhi, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Akhilesh Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Patnaik, K Chandrashekar Rao, MK Stalin, Parkash Singh Badal and Mayawati.

4) Total coronavirus positive cases rose to 68 in Punjab after three more cases were reported today --- one each in Ludhiana, SAS Nagar and Barnala. The person found positive in Ludhiana had attended the Tablighi Jamaat event in Delhi.

5) No evidence of COVID-19 being airborne yet, according to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR).

7) With 14 new cases in Kashmir division, the total number of positive cases in Jammu and Kashmir now at 106. Active cases in Kashmir -- 82 and Jammu -- 18, said Rohit Kansal, Principal Secretary, Planning, UT of Jammu and Kashmir.

8) "There is an insufficiency of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) kits and N95 masks. We are in touch with the Centre and other agencies for supply. Receiving 15,000 PPE kits today. Requested Centre for 5 lakh PPE kits received 4,000 only," said Bihar's Principal Secretary, Health, Sanjay Kumar.

9) The total number of positive cases in Indore, Madhya Pradesh, till now is 122 after 9 more positive cases were found today, according to Indore Chief Medical and Health Officer Dr Praveen Jadia.

10) Union Health Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan visits AIIMS dedicated centre for COVID19 in Jhajjar, Haryana. He said: "All 162 patients admitted here are in stable condition."

11) 86 COVID-19 positive cases reported in Tamil Nadu today out of which 85 had attended the Tableeghi Jamaat event at Markaz Nizamuddin, Delhi, according to Beela Rajesh Tamil Nadu Health Secretary. There are 571 COVID positive cases in Tamil Nadu out of which 522 cases are from the people who had attended the religious function in Delhi, she said.

12) The Congress party on Sunday posed nine questions to the Centre, demanding compensation to the family of those, who died after battling with the coronavirus.

13) 47 new coronavirus positive cases reported in Rajasthan today, taking the total number of positive cases in the state to 253.

14) 8 new COVID-19 cases reported in Kerala, which include 6 imports and 2 contact cases, said Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

15) "PPE kits are imported. So there was a shortage initially in the country but the government started taking action in this regard from January. Domestic manufacturers have started production. We have also started procuring PPE kits from other countries," said Lav Aggarwal, Joint Secy, Health Ministry. 

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Agencies
February 10,2020

New Delhi, Fevb 10: Of the countries most at risk of importing coronavirus cases, India ranks 17th, researchers have found on the basis of a mathematical model for the expected global spread of the virus that originated in China's Wuhan area in December 2019.

So far, India has reported three coronavirus positive cases -- all from Kerala.

Among the airports in India, the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi is most at risk, followed by airports in Mumbai, Kolkata, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi, according to the model.

The new model for predicting global novel coronavirus cases has been developed by researchers from Humboldt University and Robert Koch Institute in Germany.

"The spread of the virus on an international scale is dominated by air travel," said the study.

"Wuhan, the seventh largest city in China with 11 million residents, was the relevant major domestic air transportation hub with many connecting international flights before the city was effectively quarantined on January 23, 2020, and the Wuhan airport was closed. By then the virus had already spread to other Chinese provinces as well as other countries," it added.

The researchers said that it is possible to estimate how likely it is that the virus spreads to other areas by looking at air travel passenger numbers.

"The busier a flight route, the more probable it is that an infected passenger travels this route. Using these probabilistic concepts, we calculate the relative import risk to other airports. When calculating the import risk, we also take into account connecting flights and travel routes that involve multiple destinations," said the study.

The top 10 countries and regions at risk of importing coronavirus cases are: Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, USA, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Cambodia, according to the model.

While Thailand's national import risk is 2.1%, it is 0.2% for India, found the research.

The foundation of the model is the worldwide air transportation network (WAN) that connects approximately 4,000 airports with more than 25,000 direct connections.

The model accounts for both, the current distribution of confirmed cases in mainland China as well as airport closures that were implemented as a mitigation strategy.

This network theoretic model is based on the concept of effective distance and is an extension of a model introduced in the 2013 paper "The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena" published in the journal Science.

The current outbreak of the 2019-nCoV virus started in Wuhan city, Hubei province, China. While the first cases were reported as early as December 8, 2019, the outbreak gained global attention on December 31, 2019, when the World Health Organization was alerted to "several cases of pneumonia" by an unknown virus.

The new virus was soon identified as a novel coronavirus and named 2019-nCOV. It belongs to the family of viruses that include the common cold and viruses such as SARS and MERS. On January 20, 2020, it was confirmed that the coronavirus can be transmitted between humans, greatly increasing the risk of a global spread.

The death toll due to the novel coronavirus outbreak in China has increased to 811 on Sunday, surpassing that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003.

Although about 20 countries have confirmed cases, China has accounted for about 99 per cent of those infected. The first foreign victims of the virus both died on Saturday in Wuhan.

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